Measuring contagion during COVID-19 through volatility spillovers of BRIC countries using diagonal BEKK approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunjana Malik ◽  
Sakshi Sharma ◽  
Manmeet Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Dynamic Framework ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
The Us

PurposeThe outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economy and their financial markets have plummeted significantly due to it. This paper adds to the recent literature on contagion due to spillover by uniquely examining the presence of pairwise contagion or volatility transmissions in stock markets returns of India, Brazil, Russia, China and USA prior to and during COVID-19 pandemic period.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) by Bollerslev (1986) under diagonal parameterization is used to estimate multivariate GARCH framework also known as BEKK (Baba EngleKraft and Kroner) model on stock market returns of BRIC nations and the US.FindingsThe empirical results show that the model captures the volatility spillovers and display statistical significance for own past mean and volatility with both short- and long-run persistence effects. Own volatility spillovers (Heatwave phenomenon) have been found to be highest for the US, China and Brazil compared to Russia and India. The coefficients indicate persistence of volatility for each country in terms of its own past errors. The highest and long-term spillover effect is found between US and Russia. The results recommend that Russia is least vulnerable to outside shocks. Finally after examining the pairwise results, it is suggested that the BRIC countries stock indices have exhibited volatility spillover due to the COVID-19 pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThe study may be extended to include other emerging market economies under a dynamic framework.Practical implicationsResearchers and policymakers may draw useful insights on cross-market interdependencies regarding the spillovers in BRIC countries' stock markets. It also helps design international portfolio diversification strategies and in constructing optimal portfolios during COVID and in a post-COVID world.Originality/valueCOVID-19 has been an improbable event in the history of the world which can have a large impact on the financial economies across the emerging countries. This event can be deemed to be informative enough to measure the co-movements of the equity markets amongst cross-country return series, which has not been investigated so far for BRIC nations.

Impacts of the US macroeconomic news on Asian stock markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tho Nguyen ◽  
Chau Ngo
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Us

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the spillover effect of 14 US key macroeconomic news on the first two moments of 12 Asian stock market returns. Design/methodology/approach – The authors collect market expectation and actual scheduled announcements data for 14 key US's macroeconomic announcements from January 2002 to April 2012 from Bloomberg. The dataset consists of six groups: monetary policy and general macroeconomic indicators: the Federal Reserve's target interest rates (FOMC), gross domestic product (GDP), and leading indicator (LI); price indicators: consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI); business indicator: housing starts (HS) and industrial production (IP); consumption indicators: retail sales (RS) and consumer confidence level (CONSUM); labor market indicators: non-farm payroll (NFP), unemployment level (UE), and jobless claim (JOB); and external sector indicators: current account (CA) and trade balance (TB). The authors also collect daily opening and closing data of 12 Asian stock markets. Following Dow Jones classification, the authors divide them into two groups: five developed markets (Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan), and seven emerging markets (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). The MA-EGARCH (1,1) model is used for the empirical test. Findings – First, the authors find that stronger than expected news from the USA is associated with higher conditional mean and lower conditional variance of the Asian stock market returns, in general. Second, the Asian stock markets tend to put more weight on information relating to the US labor market than the other news as this indicator reveals much information about the underlying health of the US economy since full employment is the most important mandate for the US administration and policy makers. Third, in responding to the US news, the Asian emerging markets seem to respond stronger to the US news than the Asian developed markets both in terms of the number of responses and the magnitude of the reaction. This suggests that this could be seen as evidence that emerging markets are more dependent on the information content of the US news than the developed markets. Fourth, the US news is absorbed gradually leading to persisting volatility responses in the Asian stock markets. Originality/value – The authors fill a gap in the extant literature in investigating the speeds of the news absorption across the Asia region by examining the spillover effects across three time horizons, namely daily, overnight and intraday.

scholarly journals Spillovers of Stock Markets among the BRICS: New Evidence in Time and Frequency Domains before the Outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Kai Shi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Frequency Band ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Frequency Bands ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Risk Sources

We attempted to comprehensively decode the connectedness among the abbreviation of five emerging market countries (BRICS) stock markets between 1 August 2002 and 31 December 2019 not only in time domain but also in frequency domain. A continuously varying spillover index based on forecasting error variance decomposition within a generalized abbreviation of vector-autoregression (VAR) framework was computed. With the help of spectral representation, heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks were separated into frequency-specific spillovers in five different frequency bands to reveal differentiated linkages among BRICS markets. Rolling sample analyses were introduced to allow for multiple changes during the sample period. It is found that return spillovers dominated by the high frequency band (within 1 week) part declined with the drop of frequencies, while volatility spillovers dominated by the low frequency band (above 1 quarter) part grew with the decline in frequencies; the dynamics of spillovers were influenced by crucial systematic risk events, and some similarities implied in the spillover dynamics in different frequency bands were found. From the perspective of identifying systematic risk sources, China’s stock market and Russia’s stock market, respectively, played an influential role for return spillover and volatility spillover across BRICS markets.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Impact of oil volatility shocks on global emerging market stock returns

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 578-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Probal Dutta ◽  
Md Hasib Noor ◽  
Anupam Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
Jump Model ◽  
Oil Price Risk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the crude oil volatility index (OVX) plays any key role in explaining the trend in emerging market stock returns from a global standpoint. Design/methodology/approach At the empirical stage, different forms of the GARCH-jump model have been estimated. Findings The findings confirm the effects of OVX on equity returns. In addition, the results document that there exist time-varying jumps in the stock market returns. Besides, the impacts of OVX shocks appear to be symmetric. The analysis further shows that the magnitude of OVX impact is marginally bigger than that of the conventional oil price shocks. Originality/value Since various financial assets are traded on the basis of oil and equity markets, investors, for instance, could use the findings of this study for taking proper investment decisions and gaining better portfolio diversification benefits. Additionally, policymakers could utilize the results to develop effective measures and strategies in order to minimize the oil price risk.

Institution building and institutional voids

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheila M. Puffer ◽  
Daniel J McCarthy ◽  
Alfred M Jaeger
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Institutional Theory ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Institution Building ◽  
Institutional Voids ◽  
Formal Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bric Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a comparative analysis of institutions and institutional voids in Russia, Brazil, and Poland over the decades of the 1980s through to 2015. The paper asserts that Russia and Brazil could learn much from Poland regarding formal institution building and formal institutional voids that cause problems like corruption and limit economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – A comparative case study approach is utilized to assess the relative success of the three emerging market countries in transitioning to a market economy, viewed through the lens of institutional theory. Findings – Poland’s experience in building successful formal institutions and mitigating major institutional voids can be instructive for Russia and Brazil which have shown far less success, and correspondingly less sustained economic growth. Research limitations/implications – This paper demonstrates the value of applying institutional theory to analyze the progress of emerging economies in transitioning to a market economy. Practical implications – This country comparison can prove valuable to other emerging economies seeking a successful transition to a market economy. Social implications – Since institutions are the fabric of any society, the emphasis on institutions in this paper can have positive implications for society in emerging markets. Originality/value – This paper is an original comparison of two BRIC countries with a smaller emerging economy, utilizing institutional theory. Factors contributing to Poland’s success are compared to Russia and Brazil to assess how those countries might be positively informed by Poland’s experience in building and strengthening sustainable formal institutions as well as avoiding institutional voids and their associated problems.

scholarly journals Spillovers to Renewable Energy Stocks in the US and Europe: Are They Different?

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiantian Liu ◽  
Shigeyuki Hamori
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Us

This paper examines the spillovers of return and volatility transmitted from fossil energies (crude oil and natural gas) and several important financial variables (stock market index, bonds, and the volatility index) to renewable stock markets in the US and Europe under the time-frequency domain frameworks. The total spillovers of return and volatility from all variables to renewable stock markets in the US are higher than those in Europe. Stock markets transmit the highest return spillovers to renewable energy stocks, which far exceed the spillovers from fossil energy to renewable energy stocks in both regions. In addition, both return and volatility spillovers could be enhanced, possibly due to specific events or sudden changes in prices. In particular, extreme events such as the Brexit referendum in 2016 influenced mostly the volatility spillovers across European markets. Moreover, the spillovers of return and volatility are contingent on frequency, and most return spillovers are concentrated at the high frequency, whereas most volatility spillovers are concentrated at the low frequency. These results remind investors that it is necessary to consider the investment horizon when making their financial decisions on renewable energy investment.

Pollo Campero in the USA

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (9) ◽  
pp. 1649-1679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esteban R. Brenes ◽  
Amitava Chattopadyay ◽  
Luciano Ciravegna ◽  
Daniel Montoya
Keyword(s):  
Fast Food ◽  
Competitive Strategy ◽  
Corporate Strategy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emerging Market Multinationals ◽  
Consumer Segmentation ◽  
The Us

Purpose – This case illustrates the challenges that Pollo Campero, a Guatemalan fast food company, faces when expanding in the US market. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a discussion about consumer segmentation, competitive strategy and the internationalization of emerging market multinationals. Design/methodology/approach – The case study is based on primary research conducted in conjunction with the company, including interviews with senior management and an ample review of documents. Secondary sources have been used to gather information about the industry, the US market and consumer segments. Findings – The case illustrates that Pollo Campero was initially very successful in the US market because it appealed to consumers of Central American origin. It found it harder to appeal to a broader range of US consumers, who had no emotional attachment to the brand. Originality/value – This is a complex, in-depth case study suitable for use with advanced MBA students and practitioners. Depending on the aims of the instructor, different aspects of the case can be highlighted and it can be used in a competitive strategy class as well as in a corporate strategy class or a strategic marketing course. It can be used in a class focussing on brand, positioning and consumer segmentation, a class on competitive strategy in the fast food industry, or a class on the international strategy of emerging market multinationals.

scholarly journals Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Krittika Banerjee ◽  
Ashima Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Flows ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Correlated Effects ◽  
Monetary Neutrality ◽  
The Impact

PurposeAfter the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in advanced economies (AEs) there were many studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the extent of contribution of EMEs and AEs, respectively, in real exchange rate (RER) misalignments has not been addressed. This paper addresses the gap in a cross-country panel set-up with country specific controls.Design/methodology/approachFixed effects, pooled mean group (Pesaran et al., 1999) and common correlated effects (Pesaran, 2006) estimations are used to examine the relationship. Multiway clustering is taken into account to ensure robust statistical inferences.FindingsRobust evidence is found for significant monetary spillovers over 1998–2017 in the form of RER overvaluation of EMEs against AEs, especially through the portfolio rebalancing channel. EME RER against the US saw significantly more overvaluation in UMP years indicating greater role of the US in monetary spillovers. However, in the long-run monetary neutrality holds. EMEs did pursue mercantilist and precautionary policies that undervalued their RERs. Precautionary undervaluation is more evident with bilateral EME US RER.Research limitations/implicationsIt may be useful for large EMEs to monitor the impact of foreign portfolio flows on short-run deviations in RER. Export diversification reduces EME mercantilist motives against the US. That AE monetary policy significantly appreciates EME RER has implications for future policy cooperation between EMEs and AEs.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge such a comparative analysis between AE and EME policy variables on RER misalignment has not been done previously.

scholarly journals Opportunity or Crisis? Volatility and Leverage Effect in the World’s Largest Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amalendu Bhunia ◽  
Devrim Yaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between asset volatility and leverage for the three largest economies (based on purchasing power parity) in the world; US, China, and India. Collectively, these economies represent Int$56,269 billion of economic power, making it important to understand the relationship among these economies that provide valuable investment opportunities for investors. We focus on a volatile period in economic history starting in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis began. Using autoregressive models, we find that Chinese stock markets have the highest volatility among the three stock markets while the US stock market has the highest average returns. The Chinese market is less efficient than the US and Indian stock markets since the impact of new information takes longer to be reflected in stock prices. Our results show that the unconditional correlation among these stock markets is significant and positive although the correlation values are low in magnitude. We also find that past market volatility is a good indicator of future market volatility in our sample. The results show that positive stock market returns result in lower volatility compared to negative stock market returns. These results demonstrate that the largest economies of the world are highly integrated and investors should consider volatility and leverage besides returns when investing in these countries.

scholarly journals Do Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes? A state space modeling approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aymen Ben Rejeb ◽  
Mongi Arfaoui
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Space Modeling ◽  
Stock Indexes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes, in terms of informational efficiency and risk, during the recent financial instability period. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a state space model combined with a standard GARCH(1,1) specification while taking into account structural breakpoints. The authors allow for efficiency and volatility spillovers to be time-varying and consider break dates to locate periods of financial instability. Findings Empirical results show that Islamic stock indexes are more volatile than their conventional counterparts and are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. As regards of the informational efficiency, the results show that the Islamic stock indexes are more efficient than the conventional stock indexes. Practical implications Resulting evidence of this paper has several implications for international investors who wish to invest in Islamic and/or conventional stock markets. Policy makers and even academics and Sharias researchers should as well take preventive measures in order to ensure the stability of Islamic stock markets during turmoil periods. Overall, prudent risk management and precocious financial practices are relevant and crucial for both Islamic and conventional financial markets. Originality/value The originality of this study is performed by the use of time-varying models for volatility spillovers and informational efficiency. It considers structural break dates that think about the dynamic effect of informational flows on stock markets. The study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document