Industry level J-curve in Turkey

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazif Durmaz
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the J-Curve effect in Turkey at the industry level. Design/methodology/approach – In order to find the long-run and short-run effects, 58 industries (by Standard International Trade Classification Rev.3) have been identified by using monthly data that covers the periods from January 1990 to December 2012. Present study employs bounds testing procedure, developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). Findings – Although results indicate a positive satisfactory effect of real depreciation of lira in 13 industries, the J-Curve effect is detected in only 13 industries. Originality/value – The present study is one of the first studies to analyze the J-Curve effect at the industry level on Turkey. In addition to being one of the first studies, it will be an invaluable addition to the J-Curve literature.

How responsive are Indonesia's bilateral inpayments and outpayments to real depreciation of Rupiah?

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee ◽  
Hanafiah Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Almost All

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of Indonesia's inpayments and outpayments to currency depreciation on a bilateral basis.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology used is based on the bounds testing approach.FindingsIt is found that while real depreciation of Rupiah has short‐run effects in a majority of the cases, these effects last into the long‐term in almost 50 percent of the cases. Surprisingly, almost all of the affected partners in the long run are found to be the Asian countries.Originality/valueThe paper is very original in that no one has looked at this issue before.

scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

scholarly journals The long run relationship between fish production, marine trade balance and foreign direct investment

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-280
Author(s):  
Naseem H. Jamei ◽  
Mira Nurmakhanova ◽  
Shahbaz Mustafa ◽  
Alloysius Egbulonu ◽  
Wagdi Hadidan
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to focus on testing the long-run relationship between fish production and two main variables, the foreign direct investment inflow and the marine trade balance in Oman, which is one of the Arab Gulf countries, during the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses what known as the two-step Engle–Granger cointegration test to give evidence for the long-run relationship among the variables. Findings The results show that there are a negative long- and short-run relations between fish production and marine trade balance; moreover, any shocks will be corrected within two periods at the most.  Originality/value This study is one of few studies in using the econometric models to study the impact of fish production on marine trade balance and foreign direct investment.

The effect of social spending on reducing poverty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 620-632
Author(s):  
Ferdi Celikay ◽  
Erdal Gumus
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between social expenditure and poverty in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach There are voluminous studies in the literature and many of which contain condradictory results. The authors use panel error correction models and employ Turkish statistical territorial units data (26 regions) covering the period 2004-2011 in the analysis. Findings The authors have found that in the short run, there is a negative relationship between social expenditure and poverty, as expected. In the long run, however, there exists a positive relation between them. The authors utilize expenditure on education as one component of social expenditure, and the authors obtain a negative relationship between education expenditure and poverty, both in the short run and in the long run. Social implications Poverty is an important social problem that more studies on this subject should examine various aspects and find policies to alleviate it. Originality/value Literature on poverty and social spending are growing and their results are contradictory. However, this paper clearly and significantly provides new empirical evidence on the effect of social spending on reducing poverty using Turkish data. This kind of study is hardly found for developing countries like Turkey. It contributes to the literature.

Research publications and economic growth in South Africa: an empirical investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 662-675
Author(s):  
Nicholas M Odhiambo ◽  
Lydia Ntenga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Publications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between research publications and economic growth – using time-series data from South Africa. The paper attempts to answer two critical questions: is there a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa? Do research publications from South African researchers Granger-cause economic growth? Design/methodology/approach – Unlike some of the previous studies, the current paper uses a trivariate ECM-based Granger-causality model to examine this linkage. Specifically, the study incorporates education as an intermittent variable between research and economic growth. In addition, the paper uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing procedure, which has numerous advantages, especially when the sample size is small. Findings – The results of this study show that there is a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa. The results also show that there is a distinct causal flow from research publications to economic growth in South Africa. This applies both in the short-run and in the long-run. Other results also show that: there is a short-run bidirectional causality between research publications and education; and there is a short-run bi-directional causality between education and economic growth, but a long-run unidirectional causal flow from education to economic growth. Practical implications – The findings of this paper underscore the crucial role that research plays in economic growth and development. Overall, the findings of this study show that research in South Africa is pro-growth. This implies that the recent significant increase in government expenditure on research and innovation, which is aimed at increasing the country’s scientific research outputs, is likely to pay off. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind to examine in detail the dynamic causal relationship between research outputs and economic growth in South Africa – using the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach within a trivariate setting.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

scholarly journals Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 20160067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Muzammil
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Trade Partners

In investigating the short run and the long run impact of currency depreciation on Pakistan’s trade balance, previous studies have either relied on using bilateral trade data between Pakistan and her trade partners or between Pakistan and the rest of the world and have found not much support for successful depreciation. Suspecting that these studies may suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper we use disaggregated trade data at commodity level from 77 industries that trade between Pakistan and EU. While we find short-run significant effects in 22 industries, these effects do not last into the long run in most industries. Most of the affected industries are found to be small, as measured by their trade shares.

scholarly journals Determinantes da confiança do consumidor e dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Rafaela Maiara Caetano ◽  
Cleomar Gomes Da Silva
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Econometric Methodology

<p>The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of consumer confidence in Brazil and possible impacts on monetary policy actions. The econometric methodology applied is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, particularly the Bounds Testing (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration. For monthly data between January 2003 and December 2016, the empirical results suggest that there is a long run relationship between consumer confidence and the other variables analyzed. As for short-run dynamics, the error correction mechanism varies between 1.9% and 8.7%, depending on the estimated model. This suggests that economic variables influence consumer confidence, and when there is a break in confidence, its recovery is very slow.</p>

Executive malfeasance: Surprisingly, honesty may not be the best policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-227
Author(s):  
Candace M. TenBrink
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Crisis Recovery ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose Research indicates honesty, ethics and leadership are critical during a crisis. This paper aims to examine that ideology by analyzing the role acceptance or denial of executive malfeasance has on firm value after a crisis. Design/methodology/approach This is an event study that examines crises attributed to executive malfeasance. These qualitative crises data are blended with an analysis of abnormal returns to assess differences between executive actions. Findings These results indicate that ethical and timely acceptance of a firm’s role in malfeasance does not appear to be rewarded by stockholders. These data also show that there is no reward for a delayed acceptance of malfeasance. Therefore, ethics and honesty do not appear to differentiate post-crisis recovery. Research limitations/implications This research focuses on a major factor of firm success – its value. It would be interesting to explore how stakeholders, beyond those that invest in the firm, impact the value over the long run. Practical implications While prior research indicates that honesty is prudent, this examination indicates that obfuscation does not impact firm value during a recovery. This study promotes questioning one’s ethical compass as a stock or stakeholder in malfeasance-mired firms. Originality/value In conflict with crisis-based research, this study reveals that honesty in crisis management does not always offer an advantage. The results indicate that value is multidimensional, and it may not be based on trust and ethics in the short run.

The dynamics of inflation, exchange rates and the trade balance in a small economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zelealem Yiheyis ◽  
Jacob Musila
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Weak Support ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the temporal relationships between inflation and exchange rate changes and their implications for the trade balance in Uganda, which saw persistent trade deficits, rising inflation and disinflation episodes, as well as significant exchange-rate realignments and other liberalization measures over the sample period considered. Design/methodology/approach The short-run dynamics of the variables in question and the pattern of their long-run relationships are examined applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration on quarterly data. Findings The estimates suggest that, in the long run, a real depreciation leads to an increase in inflation; and that both real depreciation and inflation exert no significant effect on the trade balance. The estimated short-run dynamics suggest a causal relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate and between the real exchange rate and inflation, which is also found responsive to developments in the foreign sector. Taken together, the short-run and long-run multipliers seem to provide a weak support for the J-curve effect, while no evidence is found for the presence of the S-curve effect. Originality/value The study sheds light on the relationship among real exchange rate, inflation and the trade balance in the context of a small developing economy; it highlights that an improvement in the trade balance requires more than an appropriate exchange rate policy and underscores the importance of other policies in strengthening the external sector of the economy.

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