Oil price uncertainty and equity returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aktham Maghyereh ◽  
Basel Awartani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on the stock market returns of ten oil importing and exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. Design/methodology/approach This paper intuitively applies the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-mean vector autoregression (VAR) model using weekly data over the period January 2001-February 2014. Findings The findings indicate that oil uncertainty matters in the determination of real stock returns. There is a negative and significant relationship between oil price uncertainty and real stock returns in all countries in the sample. The influence of oil price risk is more serious in those economies that depend heavily on oil revenues to grow. Practical implications The findings have important implications. For instance, managers should be aware of the linkages between oil price uncertainty and equity returns when they use oil to hedge and diversify equities, particularly in economies where oil is important for economic growth. The policymakers in oil importing countries should encourage companies to improve efficiency in the usage of energy and to resort to alternative sources to avoid fluctuations in earnings and equity prices. In the countries that heavily depend on oil efforts should focus on diversifying the domestic economy away from oil to protect against oil price fluctuations. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the influence of oil price uncertainty in the MENA region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. The empirical findings of the paper have valuable policy implications for investors, market participants and policymakers.

Impact of oil volatility shocks on global emerging market stock returns

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 578-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Probal Dutta ◽  
Md Hasib Noor ◽  
Anupam Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
Jump Model ◽  
Oil Price Risk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the crude oil volatility index (OVX) plays any key role in explaining the trend in emerging market stock returns from a global standpoint. Design/methodology/approach At the empirical stage, different forms of the GARCH-jump model have been estimated. Findings The findings confirm the effects of OVX on equity returns. In addition, the results document that there exist time-varying jumps in the stock market returns. Besides, the impacts of OVX shocks appear to be symmetric. The analysis further shows that the magnitude of OVX impact is marginally bigger than that of the conventional oil price shocks. Originality/value Since various financial assets are traded on the basis of oil and equity markets, investors, for instance, could use the findings of this study for taking proper investment decisions and gaining better portfolio diversification benefits. Additionally, policymakers could utilize the results to develop effective measures and strategies in order to minimize the oil price risk.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

The complex relationship between inflation and equity returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinan Liu ◽  
Apostolos Serletis
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Complex Relationship ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeTo investigate the complex relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a bivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model to investigate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.FindingsUsing monthly inflation and equity returns data for the G7 and EM7 economies, we find that the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on equity returns vary across countries.Research limitations/implicationsThe mixed evidence we find potentially reflects the changing dynamics, policy regimes, economic shocks and country-specific factors (such as differences in the financing patterns of enterprises and the legal and financial environments) across the G7 and EM7 countries.Practical implicationsWe contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we rely on a wide sample of countries, including both developed and emerging economies. Second, we extend previous research by estimating a GARCH-in-mean model of monthly equity returns in which both realized returns and their conditional volatility are allowed to vary with inflation. Previous articles that studied the relationship between inflation and stock market returns generally sought time-invariant effects of inflation on stock returns.Social implicationsThe paper helps to reconcile the divergent results of previous empirical studies and distinguish between alternative explanations of the relationship between inflation and equity returns.Originality/valueOur study provides an improved comprehension of the ambiguous relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns under various central bank mandates and different levels of central bank independence. The mixed empirical evidence across countries we present provides insights for the macroeconomic models that consider the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic performance as a fundamental building block. Therefore, our empirical study calls for further work on the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.

scholarly journals Stock market liquidity, the great lockdown and the COVID-19 global pandemic nexus in MENA countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anas Alaoui Mdaghri ◽  
Abdessamad Raghibi ◽  
Cuong Nguyen Thanh ◽  
Lahsen Oubdi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Stock Market Liquidity ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on stock market liquidity, while taking into account the depth and tightness dimensions.Design/methodology/approachThe author used a panel data regression on stock market dataset, representing 314 listed firms operating in six Middle East and North African (MENA) countries from February to May 2020.FindingsThe regression results on the overall sample indicate that the liquidity related to the depth measure was positively correlated with the growth in the confirmed number of cases and deaths and stringency index. Moreover, the market depth was positively related to the confirmed cases of COVID-19. The results also indicate that the liquidity of small cap and big cap firms was significantly impacted by the confirmed number of cases, while the stringency index is only significant for the liquidity depth measure. Moreover, the results regarding sectors and country level analysis confirmed that COVID-19 had a significant and negative impact of stock market liquidity.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper confirms that the global coronavirus pandemic has decreased the stock market liquidity in terms of both the depth and the tightness dimensions.Originality/valueWhile most empirical papers focused on the impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic on stock market returns, this paper investigated liquidity chock at firm level in the MENA region using both tightness and depth dimensions.

Short- and long-term effects of responsible investment growth on equity returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Ferrat ◽  
Frédéric Daty ◽  
Radu Burlacu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Responsible Investment ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investment Growth ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe growth of socially responsible assets has been exponential over the last decade, they now account for almost a third of professional investments. As the growth persists, faith and conviction investors reshape the equity markets. To fully comprehend the impact of socially conscious participants on security returns, this paper attempts to provide insights on how responsible investment growth has impacted the returns of sustainable stocks. The examination is split by investment horizon to account for short and long effects.Design/methodology/approachUsing an exclusive dataset of non-financial ratings, provided by MSCI ESG research, the authors examine the cross-sectional returns of US and European sustainability-leading and lagging corporations between 2007 and 2019. Panel models robust to country, firm-year and industry effects were then employed to examine the impact of responsible investment growth on future stock returns.FindingsThe authors find evidence that the impact of responsible investment growth is dual contingent upon the timeframe considered. In the short run, sustainability-leading and lagging firms display similar stock returns. However, the spread in returns is negative over long horizons and increasing over time.Originality/valueThe examination performed in this study highlights the significant effect of responsible investment growth on future stock returns. Overall, the authors’ findings are consistent with the price pressure hypothesis in the short run and the cost of capital alteration over longer horizons.

Shariah-compliant investments and stock returns: evidence from the Indonesian stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Lusyana ◽  
Mohamed Sherif
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the Indonesia Shariah-compliant Stock Index (ISSI) on the performance of included shares. In essence, the authors ask whether the establishment of the ISSI provides abnormal returns for the firms that are not included in the Jakarta Index. Design/methodology/approach The authors use an event study methodology to estimate cumulative abnormal returns in the days surrounding the event to examine the relationship between Shariah-compliant investments and stock returns. The estimation window of 90 trading days prior to the event (−30) to day 60 after (+60) is adopted. They also use a range of investment performance measures to provide new evidence on whether faith-based ethical investments generate superior performance compared to their unscreened benchmarks. Findings Using daily returns, the Indonesia ISSI and panel data model, the findings show that the inclusion of the ISSI has a positive impact on the financial performance of the included shares during the 41-day event window. The evidence also suggests that the ethical investment has a significant influence on the performance of stock market returns. Research limitations/implications This study offers insights to policymakers, investors and fund managers interested in the indices’ performance. A key conclusion that could be derived by bodies that regulate Islamic products and services is that investors are not only concerned about what is profitable but also what makes their investments ethical. Originality/value Although the global growth of the Islamic capital market products and services has been tremendous in recent years, very few studies focus on the Indonesian market and indeed, none of them devote sufficient attention to Shariah-compliant investments and stock returns.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on stock market returns: Case of Bourse Regionale des Valeurs Mobilieres

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 207-214
Author(s):  
Franck Edouard Gnahe
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Market Structures ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
The Impact

Using the pooled ordinary least square approach, this paper investigates the effect of Covid-19 on the regional financial exchange namely, Bourse Regionale des Valeur Mobileres (BRVM). In this note, we propose the hypothesis that COVID-19 has affected the regional financial exchange rate resistance to the shocks. We find that the regional financial exchange reacted proactively to the pandemic in the time of March 04, 2020 to April 20, 2020 after the occurrence. Our analysis also suggest negative regional market reaction was strong during the early days of the pandemic. However, this impact is transitory with implementation of official government policies, the stock returns maintain steady growth. We conclude that pandemic has changed the resistance of the regional financial exchange to shock. Therefore, the policy implications is to consider these asymmetries when determining the monetary policy and effectiveness of financial system rules to promote competitive emerging market structures and trade liberalization in the regional exchange market and developing countries.

scholarly journals The impact of supply chain disruptions on stock market returns during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Flore Nguemgaing ◽  
Ana Claudia Sant’Anna
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Meat Processing ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeHow has COVID-19 impacted meat processors' stock returns? The authors evaluate the effects of supply chain disruptions (e.g. lockdowns and COVID-19 incidences among workers) on stock market prices of meat processors during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses an event study approach to examine the disruptions from COVID-19 through events such as plant shutdowns, the pandemic announcement, lockdown dates and the first case of COVID-19 outbreaks in meat processing plants. The dataset includes S&P 500, Google Trends, financial beta and data collected for 14 US publicly traded meat processing companies.FindingsResults show that nationwide events (e.g. announcement of the pandemic) had no statistically significant impact on average abnormal returns of meat processing companies. Individually, however, firms experienced negative abnormal returns. COVID-19-related events in individual meat processing companies had a temporary negative abnormal return in the days prior to the event.Originality/valueThis study has two main contributions. First, the authors estimate the effect of COVID-19 on the returns of meat processors. Second, the authors use Google Trends to estimate the expected stock markets returns of meat processing companies. This study provides insight to investors on the behavior of industry returns from events such as outbreaks that affect human health.

The effect of the financial crisis on the dynamic relation between foreign exchange and stock returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 994-1031
Author(s):  
Neveen Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine the impact of the 2008 financial crises on the relation between foreign exchange and stock returns in the MENA region. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine the long-run relation between these two variables using VECM and the authors study the volatility behavior of these two variables using the Dynamic VECH–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The sample covers the MENA region over the period 2004–2015. Findings The results indicate a regime shift in three countries: Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. In addition, the results assert asymmetric relation between stock returns and changes in exchange rates during pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Modeling the volatility of the foreign exchange and stock return and their covariance using VECH–GARCH suggests that the persistence in volatility is more prominent in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period. Finally, the authors also find more significant results for the persistence parameter in the covariance between stock return and foreign exchange in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the studies by Wong and Li (2010) and Caporale et al. (2014) are the only two that have examined the interaction between stock prices and foreign exchange during the recent financial crisis of 2008. To the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous literature examined the impact of financial 2008 crisis on the relation between foreign exchange and stock prices in the MENA.

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