The effect of the financial crisis on the dynamic relation between foreign exchange and stock returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 994-1031
Author(s):  
Neveen Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine the impact of the 2008 financial crises on the relation between foreign exchange and stock returns in the MENA region. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine the long-run relation between these two variables using VECM and the authors study the volatility behavior of these two variables using the Dynamic VECH–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The sample covers the MENA region over the period 2004–2015. Findings The results indicate a regime shift in three countries: Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. In addition, the results assert asymmetric relation between stock returns and changes in exchange rates during pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Modeling the volatility of the foreign exchange and stock return and their covariance using VECH–GARCH suggests that the persistence in volatility is more prominent in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period. Finally, the authors also find more significant results for the persistence parameter in the covariance between stock return and foreign exchange in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the studies by Wong and Li (2010) and Caporale et al. (2014) are the only two that have examined the interaction between stock prices and foreign exchange during the recent financial crisis of 2008. To the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous literature examined the impact of financial 2008 crisis on the relation between foreign exchange and stock prices in the MENA.

Stock returns and the US dollar: the importance of monetary policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1046-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Christopher Hughen ◽  
Scott Beyer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine return data to determine the relation between the dollar’s value and stock prices as it relates to monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine US stock returns over a 40-year period, which is classified according to monetary policy and dollar trend. To better understand the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the authors estimate a model of stock returns using the three Fama-French factors and a momentum factor. Then the authors explore the underlying economic fundamentals that drive the sharp difference in annual returns between periods when the dollar is in an uptrend trend with loose monetary policy and periods when the dollar is in a downtrend with tight monetary policy. Findings – Over the last 40 years, US stock returns were 2.5 times higher when the dollar was trending up vs down. The factor model of returns shows that equity returns are positively associated with periods when the dollar appreciated. Returns were particularly high when the dollar was in an uptrend during accommodative monetary policy. During these periods, stocks in the consumer goods and services industries provided relatively high returns. This occurred with strong economic growth due to consumer spending. Stocks exhibited the lowest returns when the dollar was depreciating and the Federal Reserve was tightening. Originality/value – The key contribution of the research is that currency trends should be analyzed in the light of monetary policy. During periods of accommodative monetary policy and dollar appreciation, the US stock market provided average returns of 18.7 percent compared to −3.29 percent during a period of restrictive monetary policy and dollar depreciation. This result is driven by stronger economic growth, which is composed of consumer spending that more than offsets the dollar’s impact on net exports.

Market risk, corporate governance, and the regulation during the recent financial crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 700-718
Author(s):  
Mouna Aloui ◽  
Bassem Salhi ◽  
Anis Jarboui
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Stock Return Volatility

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of some corporate governance mechanisms on the market risk (stock price return and volatility, exchange rate) and on the exchange rate and Treasury Bill during the financial crisis. In order to better clarify the firms’ resistance to financial crises, the effect of exchange rate, Treasury Bill and the market risk are also considered. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a sample data of the SBF 120 on a panel of 99 French firms over the period between 2006 and 2015 divided into three sub-periods: the first sub-period, which covers the period between December 31, 2006 and December 31, 2009, was characterized by the outbreak of the subprime crisis. The second sub-period considers the sovereign debt crisis in Europe between December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2012. The last sub-period includes the post-crisis period (December 31, 2013 to December 31, 2015). The GARCH and BEKK models are used to capture the effect of volatility and conditional heteroskedasticity of both corporate governance and market risk. Findings The paper found that during the financial crisis (first sub-period, the sovereign crisis period), the high shareholders’ protection had a positive and significant impact on the stock market returns. Furthermore, the shareholders’ protection, the Treasury Bill, the institutional investors, the board’s size, had a negative and significant effect on the stock returns volatility. During the post-crisis period, the high protection and the board’s size had a negative and significant effect on the volatility of the stock returns. Research limitations/implications This result implies that during the financial crisis, the high shareholders’ protection played a role in increases the stock market return and minimized the stock return volatility. Practical implications This study helps in improving the legal protection of investors and helps managers, shareholders and investors to evaluate their investments. This study also provides implications for policymakers and legal environment in order to evaluate the importance of the current corporate governance frameworks in place. Originality/value This result implies that the institutional investors, as the results suggest, should follow the shareholders’ protection in all the countries to make decisions about their investments since the high shareholders’ protection increases the firm’s stock returns and decreases the stock return volatility.

scholarly journals The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firmansyah Firmansyah ◽  
Shanty Oktavilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the company's portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a country's macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.

Oil price uncertainty and equity returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aktham Maghyereh ◽  
Basel Awartani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on the stock market returns of ten oil importing and exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. Design/methodology/approach This paper intuitively applies the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-mean vector autoregression (VAR) model using weekly data over the period January 2001-February 2014. Findings The findings indicate that oil uncertainty matters in the determination of real stock returns. There is a negative and significant relationship between oil price uncertainty and real stock returns in all countries in the sample. The influence of oil price risk is more serious in those economies that depend heavily on oil revenues to grow. Practical implications The findings have important implications. For instance, managers should be aware of the linkages between oil price uncertainty and equity returns when they use oil to hedge and diversify equities, particularly in economies where oil is important for economic growth. The policymakers in oil importing countries should encourage companies to improve efficiency in the usage of energy and to resort to alternative sources to avoid fluctuations in earnings and equity prices. In the countries that heavily depend on oil efforts should focus on diversifying the domestic economy away from oil to protect against oil price fluctuations. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the influence of oil price uncertainty in the MENA region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. The empirical findings of the paper have valuable policy implications for investors, market participants and policymakers.

Doping scandals in professional cycling: impact on primary team sponsor’s stock return

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Danylchuk ◽  
Jelmer Stegink ◽  
Katie Lebel
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Grand Tour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Professional Cycling ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of doping scandals (n=25) in professional cycling Grand Tour events on the primary team sponsor’s daily stock return. Design/methodology/approach – Event study methodology. Findings – Overall it was found that during the time period and events under examination in this study doping scandals had no significant impact on the primary team sponsor’s stock returns. Originality/value – There is limited research to explain the economic impact of widespread doping in cycling and its commercial shareholders. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationship between doping scandals in professional cycling and the daily stock return of the involved team’s primary sponsor.

The effect of financial analysts on the economic implications of disclosed lease information – a note

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Su-Jane Hsieh ◽  
Yuli Su
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Financial Analyst ◽  
Analyst Following ◽  
Analyst Coverage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether financial analyst coverage affects the dissemination of disclosed operating lease information into cash flow predictions and stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThe difference in lease expense between capital/finance lease and operating lease reporting is estimated based on the approach in Hsieh and Su (2015). This difference is referred to as the earnings impact from operating lease capitalization and is only available from footnotes. The authors then include the level of financial analyst following in a cash flow model to study its impact on the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact. Similarly, the level of financial analyst following is inserted in an earnings-return model to assess the effect of analyst coverage on the association between contemporaneous stock returns and earnings impact.FindingsThe authors find that the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact shifts to the interaction between analyst coverage and the earnings impact, suggesting that the decision-usefulness of the earnings impact is conditioned on the level of analyst following. Nevertheless, the authors find that the earnings impact continues to have explanatory value for the contemporaneous stock returns, while the interaction between analyst coverage and the earnings impact does not. This finding suggests that the earnings impact is already fully reflected in stock prices regardless of analyst following.Research limitations/implicationsSince the estimation of the earnings impact from reporting operating leases as capital leases is based on the method developed by Imhoff et al. (1991), the results and inferences are thus constrained by the validity of the method.Practical implicationsThe authors find that financial analyst activities accelerate the incorporation of the earnings impact from operating lease capitalization in cash flow predictions, but it does not promote the impounding of the earnings impact into stock prices. This finding suggests that financial analysts' influence on the dissemination of the earnings impact hinges on the type of economic activity, and failing to consider the financial analyst following in studying the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact would obscure the findings.Originality/valueThe authors extend the findings of prior research that financial analysts' activities promote the incorporation of firm-specific information into stock prices by investigating the impact of financial analysts on the dissemination of disclosed operating lease information.

STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON TAIWAN’S GAME INDUSTRY AND INVESTORS

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-18
Author(s):  
Bi-Huei Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Video Game ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Game Industry ◽  
The Impact

Purpose of study: This study investigates the change of stock returns during the Lehman Brother’s announcement of bankruptcy in 2008 for the Taiwanese listed video game companies. We further explore the change of stock returns for the Taiwanese listed video game companies after Taiwan’s economy recovers from Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy. Methodology: This study utilizes the event study method to statistically test abnormal returns so as to understand whether the Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy-related event affects stock prices and whether securities prices reflect Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy-related information. Main Findings: The results show a significant negative abnormal rate during Lehman Brother’s declaration of bankruptcy on Sep. 15, 2008. Investors were affected by the financial crisis caused by Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy and fully reflected on the stock prices of that day. In addition, our results show that video game companies have significantly positive returns when most Taiwanese electronics firms stop no-pay leave on March 31, 2009. It represents investors were encouraged by this information and fully reflected on the stock prices. Implications: The results support the efficient market hypothesis. The pattern of CARs experiences a constant increase and displays the apparent price rise during the announcement of no-pay leave stop. The positive abnormal returns are accompanied by the economic recovery. Originality/Novelty: This investigation for the first time chooses the stop of no-pay leave as the indicator of economic recovery from financial crisis. Our analysis novel explores the impact of the financial crisis and the economic recovery on the game industry simultaneously and the results show significantly different market reactions between the occurrence of the financial crisis and economic recovery.

scholarly journals The cross-market efficiency of the Italian derivatives market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Izidin El Kalak ◽  
Robert Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to examine the cross-market efficiency of the FTSE/MIB index options contracts traded on the Italian derivatives market (IDEM) during a period including the financial crisis between 1st October 2007 and 31st December 2012 using daily option prices. Design/methodology/approach Two fundamental no-arbitrage conditions were tested: the lower boundary condition (LBC) and the put–call parity (PCP) condition while taking into account the role of transaction costs in mitigating the number of violations reported. Ex post tests of LBC and PCP revealed a low incidence of mispricing in this market. Furthermore, to check the robustness of the results obtained by the ex post tests, ex ante tests were applied to PCP violations occurring within a one-day lag. Findings The results showed a significant drop in the number of profitable arbitrage strategies. The findings obtained from all these tests generally support the cross-market efficiency of the Italian index options market during the sample period, though some violations were occasionally reported. Overall, the number and monetary value of the violations reported declined during the post-financial crisis period compared to those during the financial crisis period. Research limitations/implications This study can be extended to test the relationships between arbitrage profitability and other factors such as the moneyness (in the money, out of the money, at the money) of options and the maturity of options. Options market efficiency tests can be conducted such as call and put spreads, box spreads and put/call convexities (butterfly spreads). Originality/value There are several factors that influenced the decision to test the Italian index options market. First, the limited number of studies conducted on this market. Second, the fact that the two main studies on this market are relatively old, which makes it interesting to test the efficiency of this market with respect to a new set of data, taking into account the introduction of the Euro and the impact of the recent financial crisis on this market and whether the market efficiency hypothesis holds during the period of crisis. Third, it is important to consider the effect of the new rules applied to this market.

scholarly journals Accruals quality and the cost of debt: the European evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasser Eliwa ◽  
Andros Gregoriou ◽  
Audrey Paterson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Cost Of Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
National Characteristics ◽  
Accruals Quality ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the empirical relationship between the cost of debt (CoD) and accruals quality (AQ) of European listed firms during the period of 2005 to 2014. Also, it aims to test the impact of the interrelationship between the financial crisis (2008-2009) and AQ on CoD. Finally, we decompose AQ into two components; the innate (InnateAQ) and discretionary components (DiscAQ); and test their relationships with CoD. Design/methodology/approach To empirically examine the relationship between AQ and CoD, a sample including 15 member states of the EU is constructed. AQ proxy is based on the McNichols (2002) modification of Dechow and Dichev (2002) model. A univariate analysis and a multivariate analysis are conducted to examine the relationship between AQ and CoD after controlling for firm characteristics and institutional variables. Findings We find a significant negative association between AQ and CoD in a vast proportion of the 15 countries under review. Also, the results indicate that during the crisis period, creditors pay relatively more attention to the quality of accounting information than during the pre-crisis period when they determine CoD of firms. Moreover, we report a link between the magnitude of this relationship and national characteristics and provide evidence of the significant effects of national characteristics and market forces on CoD. Finally, we find that InnateAQ drives the relationship with CoD. Practical implications This paper provides up-to-date evidence on the economic consequences of AQ and IFRS in the capital market. The results should, therefore, be of interest to managers, creditors, regulators and standard-setters. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to investigate the effects of AQ on CoD for European listed firms. Also, it examines the impact of financial crisis on the association between AQ and CoD.

Impact of upward and downward earnings management on stock returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asgar Ali ◽  
Manish Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uniform Sample ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role

PurposeThe current study aims at examining the impact of upward and downward earnings management on the cross-sections of stock return. The study also examines the moderating role of cross-sectional effects on the association between earnings management and stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed univariate and bivariate-sorted portfolio-level analysis to investigate the issue. Fama–Macbeth cross-sectional regression is used to analyze the moderating role of different cross-sectional effects. The study used a sample of 3085 Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) listed stocks spanning over 20 years from January 2000 to December 2019.FindingsThe findings suggest that investors have different perceptions toward different forms of earnings management. In other words, results exhibit that investors perceive downward earnings management as an element of risk; hence, they discount the returns at a higher rate. On the contrary, results show that upward earnings management is positively perceived by the investors; hence, they hold the stocks even at a lower rate of return. This relation is found to be consistent even after controlling the impact of marker effect, size effect, value effect and momentum effect.Originality/valueThis study is among pioneering studies that consider the direction of earnings management while examining its impact on the stock return. This study is also among the earlier attempts to examine the moderating role of four different cross-sectional effects by taking a uniform sample of stocks over the same period.

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