Inflation expectations, economic policy ambiguity and micro-level consumer behavior

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-395
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Average Consumer ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Level Analysis

Purpose This paper aims to augment existing literature by examining how specific macroeconomic conditions (economic policy uncertainty and inflation expectations) influence micro-level (instead of macro-level) behavioral dynamics exhibited by the average consumer. Design/methodology/approach This study conducted empirical analysis using structural vector autoregressive estimation technique. Findings The average consumer tends to exhibit significantly varied micro-level expenditure behavioral patterns not readily observed at the macro- or aggregate-level expenditures. For instance, this study finds that in the short run, inflation expectations tend to have a significant positive impact on both non-durable goods and service expenditures; the same condition, however, tends to have a negative impact on durable goods. Additionally, this study also finds that economic policy uncertainty, unlike inflation expectations, tends to constrain consumption expenditures at all micro levels with very significant variations in decline in expenditures made. Originality/value Unlike legion of empirical work based on macro-level analysis, this study adopts a micro-level analysis and also engages two macroeconomic conditions (inflation expectations and economic policy uncertainty) not already examined in existing studies.

Geopolitical risk, economic growth, economic uncertainty and international inbound tourism: an Indian Illustration

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

Purpose This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables. Findings This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists. Research limitations/implications This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: evidence from asymmetric frequency domain causality approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mucahit Aydin ◽  
Ugur Korkut Pata ◽  
Veysel Inal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Asymmetric Causality

Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock prices during the period from March 2003 to March 2021. Design/methodology/approach The study uses asymmetric and symmetric frequency domain causality tests and focuses on BRIC countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Findings The findings of the symmetric causality test confirm unidirectional permanent causality from EPU to stock prices for Brazil and India and bidirectional causality for China. However, according to the asymmetric causality test, the findings for China show that there is no causality between the variables. The results for Brazil and India indicate that there is unidirectional permanent causality from positive components of EPU to positive components of stock prices. Moreover, for Brazil, there is unidirectional temporary causality from the negative components of EPU to the negative components of stock prices. For India, there is temporary causality in the opposite direction. Originality/value The reactions of financial markets to positive and negative shocks differ. In this context, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and uncertainty using an asymmetric frequency domain approach. Thus, the study enables the analysis of the effects of positive and negative shocks in the stock market separately.

Economic policy uncertainty and fine wine prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-476
Author(s):  
Nithya Shankar ◽  
Bill Francis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wine Markets

Purpose The paper aims to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) (i.e. uncertainty due to government policies) on fine wine prices. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the Baker et al. (2016) monthly news-based measure of EPU for the leading wine markets: the USA, the UK, France, Germany and China in conjunction with monthly fine wine pricing data from the London International Vintners Exchange (Liv-ex). The wine sub-indices used are the Liv-ex 500 (Bordeaux), Burgundy 150, Champagne 50, Rhone 100, Italy 100, California 50, Port 50 and Rest of the World 50. The Prais–Winsten and Cochrane–Orcutt regressions are used for our analyses to correct for effects of serial correlation. Time lags are chosen based on the appropriate information criterion. Findings Changes in EPU levels negatively impact changes in the Liv-ex 500 index for all our leading wine markets except France, the Champagne 50 index for the UK and the Burgundy 150 and the Rhone 100 indices for Germany, with the effects being significant for at least up to a quarter before EPU is detected. The authors did not find significant results for the EPU of France. Practical implications The paper aims to provide insights into whether EPU creates opportunities or threats for investors and wineries. Originality/value A forward-looking news-based EPU measure is used to gain insights into how the different Liv-ex sub-indices react to increases in uncertainty centered around government policies across a sample of different countries.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of economic policy uncertainty to investor sentiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mobeen Ur Rehman ◽  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impact of investor sentiments on economic policy uncertainty (EPU). The analysis also considers the momentum effect, stock market returns volatility and equity pricing inefficiencies across markets, which, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been addressed in the literature. The role of these control variables has collectively been considered to have important behavioral implications for international investors Design/methodology/approach Quantile regressions are used for estimation purpose, as it provides robust and more efficient estimates rather than those coming from the traditional regression model. Findings The momentum effect is negative and significant only at higher quantiles, while oil prices are positive and significant across all quantiles. The exchange rate exerts a negative and significant effect on EPU, whereas equity price volatility (i.e. investor sentiment) exerts a negative and significant impact on EPU in most of the quantiles. Research limitations/implications The results have important implications for international investors and policymakers, especially in terms of the breakdown of economic policy uncertainty across different sample markets. The breakdown of complete sample period into sub-samples acts as a robust analysis and documents the similarity of the results for the Asian and developed markets cases, but not in the case of the European markets. Practical implications The findings imply the importance of financial stability that impacts the accumulation of systemic risks and adds smoothness to the financial cycle in particular geographical areas. Originality/value The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, existing literature highlights and empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different market, macro-economic and global control variables. The analysis, however, performs it in the reverse order, i.e. analyzing the impact of the momentum effect (investor sentiment variables), equity market inefficiencies and volatility (market variables) and exchange rates and Brent oil (control variables). Second, to check the sensitivity of economic policy uncertainty, the analysis analyzes a wide range of markets, segregated as emerging, developed and European regions over the sample period to generate region-wise implications. Finally, the analysis explores the relationship of aforementioned variables with economic policy uncertainty keeping in view the non-linear structure and prior evidence and investor sentiments and economic policy uncertainty in the regression model.

Impact of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock return

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abobaker Al.Al. Hadood ◽  
Farid Irani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
European Economic ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Stock Index Returns

PurposeThis paper considers the role of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty (both domestic and European) in explaining the changes in the contemporaneous and future travel and leisure stock index returns in top European Union (EU) tourism destinations, namely, in France, Germany, Spain and the UK.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted the ordinary least square (OLS) regression estimations to investigate the impact of changes in economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock returns. Furthermore, the authors used predictive regressions to determine whether economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty are useful predictors over the short- or medium-term for travel and leisure stock returns.FindingsEmpirical results revealed that, in France and Spain, the changes in regional economic sentiments predominantly and positively affected travel and leisure stock index returns. Also, results indicated that changes in European economic sentiment have a strong positive effect on the future travel and leisure stock returns in Spain and the UK over the short run, while in France, changes in European economic policy uncertainty have a weak negative effect on the future travel and leisure stock returns over the medium-term.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper provides valuable practical implications for investors who trade travel and leisure stocks. Traders can use economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty to establish arbitrageur strategies.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the effects of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty (both domestic and European) on contemporaneous and future travel and leisure stock returns in a top European tourism destination.

Economic policy uncertainty effect on credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance: evidence from Tunisian listed banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalfaoui Hamdi ◽  
Guenichi Hassen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Empirical Level ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Lending Decisions ◽  
And Performance

PurposeThis paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance of Tunisian listed banks over the period 1999–2019.Design/methodology/approachTo identify the relationship between EPU, credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance, we have proceeded with a fixed effects panel regression model over the period 1999–2019.FindingsOur empirical analysis showed a significant positive effect of EPU on credit risk and a significant negative effect on loan size and performance. We have also found that state-owned banks were the most affected by increasing EPU. Their credit risk has increased and their returns have decreased. While highly leveraged private banks have recorded a sharp decline in their results.Research limitations/implicationsFacing increasing credit risks, generated by EPU, Tunisian banks are allowed to revise their lending decisions to ensure consequently their sustainability and performance.Practical implicationsTunisian resident banks should set up a monitoring system and an early-warning system of credit risk in order to guarantee both, their performance and the sustainability of the economy's financing.Social implicationsA good banking governance and a stable economic and political environment are the key factors that improve the allocation of credit, credit risk diversification and the creation of added value for the different activity sectors.Originality/valueOn the theoretical as well as on the empirical level, the analysis of the Tunisia EPU on credit risk, bank lending strategy and banking performance was not handled previously in the literature. It was noted that state banks are more influenced by the increase of EPU. Their credit risk has increased and their returns have declined. However, private banks with a high leverage effect have recorded a net decrease in their results. Since the 2011 revolution, invisibility and EPU have largely influenced the bank lending decisions and subsequently banking performance.

Mixed frequency domain spillover effect of international economic policy uncertainty on stock market

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuzhen Zhu ◽  
Xiaofei Wu ◽  
Zhen He ◽  
Yining He
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to construct a frequency-domain framework to study the asymmetric spillover effects of international economic policy uncertainty on China’s stock market industry indexes. Design/methodology/approach This paper follows the time domain spillover model, asymmetric spillover model and frequency domain spillover model, which not only studies the degree of spillover in time domain but also studies the persistence of spillover effect in frequency domain. Findings It is found that China’s economic policy uncertainty plays a dominant role in the spillover effect on the stock market, while the global and US economic policy uncertainty is relatively weak. By decomposing realized volatility into quantified asymmetric risks of “good” volatility and “bad” volatility, it is concluded that economic policy uncertainty has a greater impact on stock downside risk than upside risk. For different time periods, the sensitivity of long-term and short-term spillover economic policy impact is different. Among them, asymmetric high-frequency spillover in the stock market is more easily observed, which provides certain reference significance for the stability of the financial market. Originality/value The originality aims at extending the traditional research paradigm of “time domain” to the research perspective of “frequency domain.” This study uses the more advanced models to analyze various factors from the static and dynamic levels, with a view to obtain reliable and robust research conclusions.

Do firms adjust board gender diversity in response to economic policy uncertainty?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seksak Jumreornvong ◽  
Sirimon Treepong karuna ◽  
Shenghui Tong ◽  
Pornsit Jiraporn
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Board Gender Diversity

Purpose This paper aims to explore the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on board gender diversity. Prior research shows that female directors play a beneficial role. The advantage of board gender diversity should be particularly helpful when firms have to navigate an uncertain environment. So the authors hypothesize that firms adjust their board gender diversity in response to EPU. Design/methodology/approach The authors execute a regression analysis. To minimize endogeneity, the authors execute firm-fixed effects regressions, an instrumental variable (IV) analysis and propensity score matching. Findings Consistent with their hypothesis, the authors find that firms significantly raise board gender diversity in response to EPU. To draw a causal inference, the authors exploit the 9/11 terrorist attack as an exogenous shock that elevated EPU unexpectedly. The authors’ IV analysis corroborates the results. Finally, the authors show that board gender diversity substantially mitigates the adverse effect on shareholder wealth brought about by an unanticipated negative shock attributed to the 9/11 attack. Originality/value According to the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the effect of EPU on board gender diversity. This research contributes to two important areas of the literature, i.e. board gender diversity and EPU. The authors show that board gender diversity is beneficial and firms act accordingly when facing more economic uncertainty.

LGBT-supportive corporate policies, risk aversion and mitigation and economic policy uncertainty

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi ◽  
Sirimon Treepongkaruna ◽  
Pornsit Jiraporn
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Corporate Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Instrumental Variable Analysis ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Media ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
Variable Analysis

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the effect of uncertain times on LGBT-supportive corporate policies, exploiting a novel text-based measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) that was recently constructed by Baker et al. (2016). LGBT-supportive policies have attracted a great deal of attention in the media lately. There is also a rapidly growing area of the literature that addresses LGBT-supportive policies specifically.Design/methodology/approachThe authors execute a regression analysis and several other robustness checks including propensity score matching (PSM) and an instrumental-variable analysis to mitigate endogeneity.FindingsThe authors' results show that companies significantly raise their investments in LGBT-supportive policies in times of greater uncertainty, reinforcing the risk mitigation view where LGBT-supportive policies create moral capital with an insurance-like effect that mitigates adverse consequences during uncertain times. The effect of EPU on LGBT-supportive policies is above and beyond its effect on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in general.Originality/valueThe authors' study is the first to explore the effect of uncertain times on LGBT-supportive corporate policies. The authors contribute to a crucial area of the literature that examines how firms respond to EPU. In addition, the authors enrich the literature on LGBT-friendly policies by showing that EPU is one of the significant determinants of LGBT-friendly policies.

How and when economic policy uncertainty influences firms' strategic change: the role of CEO turnover and organizational inertia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Zhong ◽  
Weihong Chen ◽  
Ge Ren
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Strategic Change ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Ceo Turnover ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Organizational Inertia ◽  
The Impact

PurposeMany studies have examined the antecedents of firms' strategic change on a micro and meso level, but few studies have explored it from the macrolevel (e.g. economic policy uncertainty) perspective. This research draws attention to the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firms' strategic change.Design/methodology/approachThis research empirically tests hypotheses based on a sample of listed firms in China during the period between 2010 and 2017.FindingsBased on real options theory, the authors theorize and find that economic policy uncertainty will negatively affect firms' strategic change through the mediating effect of CEO turnover. Moreover, organizational inertia will strengthen the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on CEO turnover and will weaken the positive impact of CEO turnover on firms' strategic change.Originality/valueFirst, this research contributes to the strategic change literature by demonstrating the important impact of economic policy uncertainty on firms' strategic change. Second, this research expands the literature on the economic consequences of economic policy uncertainty. Third, this research clarifies the path and boundary conditions of economic policy uncertainty affecting strategic change by introducing the mediating effects of CEO turnover and the moderating effects of organizational inertia.

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