Risk and complexity – on complex risk management

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-54
Author(s):  
Jan Emblemsvåg
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Complexity Theory ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Data Protection Regulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Industries lament the current situation of approaches that have resulted in huge losses in the face of complex risks. The purpose of this study is therefore to review complexity theory in the context of risk management so that it is possible to research better approaches for managing complex risks. Design/methodology/approach The approach is to review complexity theory and highlight those aspects of complexity theory that have relevance for risk management. Then, the paper ends with a discussion on what direction of research that will be most promising for the aforementioned purpose. Findings The paper finds that the most challenging aspect is to identify the weak signals, and this implies that the current approaches of estimating probabilities are not going to produce the desired results. Big data may hold a solution in the future, but with legislation such as the General Data Protection Regulation, this seems impossible to implement on ethical grounds. Hence, the most prudent approach is to use a margin of safety as advocated by Graham roughly 70 years ago. Indeed, the approach may be to assume that a disaster will take place and use risk management tools to estimate the impact for a given object. Research limitations/implications The literature review is a summary of a much larger work, and in so doing, the resulting simplification may run the risk of missing out on important details. However, with this risk in mind, the review holds rich enough discussion on complexity to be relevant for research about complex risk management. Practical implications The current implication for practice is that the paper strongly supports the notion of using a margin of safety as advocated by Graham and his most famous disciple Warren Buffet. This comes from the fact that because context is king, risk management approaches must be applied in their right domain. There is no one right way. In the future, the goal is to develop a quantitative approach that can help the industry in pricing complex risks. Originality/value The main contribution of the paper is to bring complexity theory more into the domain of risk management with sufficient details that should allow researchers to get conceptual ideas about what might work or not concerning complex risk management. If nothing else, it would be a significant contribution of the paper if it could help increasing the interest in complexity theory.

scholarly journals Disaster risk management approaches in construction and built environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-99
Author(s):  
Seyedamir Tavakoli Taba ◽  
Mohammad Mojtahedi ◽  
Sidney Newton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Research Productivity ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Disaster Risk Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Literature ◽  
Response And Recovery ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Currently there is no analysis of the development of disaster risk management literature in the construction and built environment context, the changes in its research paradigms over time and the role of different key players in the advance of its current body of knowledge. This study aims to address that gap by investigating the longitudinal data of disaster risk management literature published over the past three decades. Design/methodology/approach A social network analysis approach is used in this study to show the overall development of the field and specifically the impact of research collaborations between different organisations and countries on research productivity. Findings The results indicate that the focus of disaster risk management research in the built environment context is heavily biased towards reactive strategies (response and recovery) over proactive strategies (mitigation and preparedness). The findings also demonstrate that collaboration between disaster risk management researchers has a significant influence on their research productivity. Originality/value The findings from this study should be of value to researchers, policymakers and academic strategists. This study for the first time shows the ability of the social networks paradigm to reveal frailties in research connections in the field of disaster risk management in construction and built environment and highlights where networking strategies are needed.

The Risk-Based Approach to Data Protection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphaël Gellert
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Data Protection ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
General Data Protection Regulation ◽  
Regulation Theory ◽  
Régulation Theory ◽  
General Data ◽  
Data Protection Law ◽  
The Way

The main goal of this book is to provide an understanding of what is commonly referred to as “the risk-based approach to data protection”. An expression that came to the fore during the overhaul process of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)—even though it can also be found in other statutes under different acceptations. At its core it consists in endowing the regulated organisation that process personal data with increased responsibility for complying with data protection mandates. Such increased compliance duties are performed through risk management tools. It addresses this topic from various perspectives. In framing the risk-based approach as the latest model of a series of regulation models, the book provides an analysis of data protection law from the perspective of regulation theory as well as risk and risk management literatures, and their mutual interlinkages. Further, it provides an overview of the policy developments that led to the adoption of such an approach, which it discusses in the light of regulation theory. It also includes various discussions pertaining to the risk-based approach’s scope and meaning, to the way it has been uptaken in statutes including key provisions such as accountability and data protection impact assessments, or to its potential and limitations. Finally, it analyses how the risk-based approach can be implemented in practice by providing technical analyses of various data protection risk management methodologies.

Pandemic in paradise: Tourism pauses in Bali

2021 ◽  
pp. 146735842110184
Author(s):  
I Nengah Subadra ◽  
Heather Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Research Note ◽  
Local People ◽  
Mass Tourism ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Deep Crisis

This research note provides an account of the trajectory of Balinese tourism through 2020, focusing on government actions in the face of the coronavirus pandemic and the responses of local people. Interviews were conducted with informants in the tourism sector to assess the impact of the pandemic. The findings suggest that before April 2020, people were calm and thought that Balinese tourism may survive, albeit on much-reduced arrivals. After April, when tourism shut down completely, a new sense of pessimism became evident. Although domestic tourism began again in August, the sector was still in deep crisis at the end of the year. Although Balinese people expressed hope that the future may offer a more sustainable kind of tourism, all indications pointed to official support for a return to mass tourism.

Do disclosure and transparency affect bank’s financial performance?

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1344-1361
Author(s):  
Isaiah Oino
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Portfolios ◽  
Cent Level ◽  
Transparency And Disclosure ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of transparency and disclosure on the financial performance of financial institutions. The emphasis is on assessing transparency and disclosure; auditing and compliance; risk management as indicators of corporate governance; and understanding how these parameters affect bank profitability, liquidity and the quality of loan portfolios. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 20 financial institutions was selected, with ten respondents from each, yielding a total sample size of 200. Principal component analysis (PCA), with inbuilt ability to check for composite reliability, was used to obtain composite indices for the corporate governance indicators as well as the indicators of financial performance, based on a set of questions framed for each institution. Findings The analysis demonstrates that greater disclosure and transparency, improved auditing and compliance and better risk management positively affect the financial performance of financial institutions. In terms of significance, the results show that as the level of disclosure and transparency in managerial affairs increases, the performance of financial institutions – as measured in terms of the quality of loan portfolios, liquidity and profitability – increases by 0.3046, with the effect being statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Furthermore, as the level of auditing and the degree of compliance with banking regulations increases, the financial performance of banks improves by 0.3309. Research limitations/implications This paper did not consider time series because corporate governance does not change periodically. Practical implications This paper demonstrates the importance of disclosure and transparency in managerial affairs because the performance of financial institutions, as measured in terms of loan portfolios, liquidity and profitability, increases by 0.4 when transparency and disclosure improve, with this effect being statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Originality/value The use of primary data in assessing the impact of corporate governance on financial performance, instead of secondary data, is the primary novelty of this study. Moreover, PCA is used to assess the weight of the various parameters.

The effects of materialism on consumer evaluation of sustainable synthetic (lab-grown) products

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 579-590
Author(s):  
Jessica Keech ◽  
Maureen Morrin ◽  
Jeffrey Steven Podoshen
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumer Evaluation ◽  
Positioning Strategy ◽  
Consumer Markets ◽  
The Future ◽  
Promotion Strategies ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The increasing desire of consumers for socially responsible luxury products combined with fluctuating supplies in consumer markets are leading various industries to seek alternative sources to be able to meet the needs of its customers. One possible solution that may meet the demands of the future is lab-grown products. Because these products confer multiple benefits, this study aims to investigate the most effective ways to appeal to consumers by aligning the benefits of the products with their values as marketers seek to find effective promotion for these items. Design/methodology/approach We examine the effectiveness of an ethical positioning strategy for two types of luxury lab-grown (synthetic) products among high versus low materialism consumers in three experiments. Findings Findings suggest that a positioning strategy stressing product ethicality is more effective for low materialism consumers, whereas the strategy is less effective, and may even backfire, for high materialism consumers. The impact on social status consumers perceive from a lab-grown product explains why this effect occurs among low materialism consumers. Therefore, marketers should take caution and use specific appeals for different segments based on values such as consumers’ materialism levels. Originality/value If lab-grown products represent the wave of the future, it is important to understand how consumers will respond to this emerging technology and how promotion strategies may enhance their evaluation.

More tax on asset gains is likelier than a wealth tax

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
Investment Income ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
Fiscal Support ◽  
Wealth Tax

Significance Developed economies have implemented fiscal support measures worth over 16% of their GDP to combat the pandemic's impacts. To pay off the resulting debt and to ensure sufficient revenue in the face of a fragile and uneven recovery, new taxes and higher rates are being considered. Impacts Levying a wealth tax on productive firms risks starving them of capital for the future. If levied too high or too long, people would sell assets to pay, depressing asset prices, reducing investment and prompting outflows. Criticisms of wealth taxes mean that a one-off surcharge on investment income above a certain threshold would be easier and more popular.

The impact of counterfeit risk management on healthcare supply chain performance: an empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauro Falasca ◽  
Scott Dellana ◽  
William J. Rowe ◽  
John F. Kros
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Healthcare Organizations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

PurposeThis study develops and tests a model exploring the relationship between supply chain (SC) counterfeit risk management and performance in the healthcare supply chain (HCSC).Design/methodology/approachIn the proposed theoretical model, HCSC counterfeit risk management is characterized by HCSC counterfeit risk orientation (HCRO), HCSC counterfeit risk mitigation (HCRM) and HCSC risk management integration (HRMI), while performance is represented by healthcare logistics performance (HLP) and healthcare organization overall performance (HOP). Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and survey data from 55 HCSC managers are used to test the research hypotheses.FindingsHCRO has a significant positive effect on HCRM, while HCRM has a positive impact on HRMI. With respect to HLP, HCRM has a nonsignificant effect, while HRMI has a significant impact, thus confirming the important mediating role of HRMI. Finally, HLP has a significant positive effect on the overall performance of healthcare organizations.Research limitations/implicationsAll study participants were from the United States, limiting the generalizability of the study findings to different countries or regions. The sample size employed in the study did not allow the authors to distinguish among the different types of healthcare organizations.Originality/valueThis study delineates between a healthcare organization's philosophy toward counterfeiting risks vs actions taken to eliminate or reduce the impact of counterfeiting on the HCSC. By offering firm-level guidance for managers, this study informs healthcare organizations about addressing the challenge of counterfeiting in the HCSC.

Enterprise risk management and sustainability of banks performance

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babajide Oyewo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Enterprise Risk Management ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Banking Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Enterprise Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates firm attributes (namely level of capitalisation, scope of operation, organisational structure, organisational lifecycle, systemic importance and size) affecting the robustness of enterprise risk management (ERM) practice, the extent to which ERM affects the performance of banks and the impact of ERM on the long-term sustainability of banks in Nigeria. This was against the backdrop that the 2012 banking reform was a major regulatory intervention that mainstreamed ERM in the Nigerian banking sector.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a mixed methodology of content, trend and quantitative analyses. Ex post facto research design was deployed to analyse performance differential of banks, with respect to the implementation of ERM, over a 10-year period (2008–2017). A disclosure checklist developed from the COSO ERM integrated framework was used to assess the robustness of ERM by content-analysing divulgence on risk management in published annual reports. The banking reform periods were dichotomised into pre- (2008–2012) and post- (2013–2017) reform periods. Jonckheere–Terpstra test, independent sample t-test and Mann–Whitney test were applied to analyse a total of 1,036 firm-year observations over the period 2008–2017.FindingsResult shows that bank attributes significantly affecting the robustness of risk management practice are level of capitalisation, scope of operation, systemic importance and size. Performance of banks improved slightly during the post-2012 banking reform period. This suggests that as banks consolidate on the gains of ERM, benefits of the regulatory policy on risk management may be realised in the long run. Result also shows that ERM enhances long-term performance, connoting that effective risk management could serve as a competitive strategy for surviving turbulence that typically characterises the banking sector.Practical implicationsThe emergence of level of capitalisation, scope of operation, systemic importance and size as determinants of ERM provides empirical evidence to support the practice of reviewing the capital requirements for banking business from time to time by regulatory authorities (i.e. recapitalisation policy) as a strategy for managing systemic risk. Top management of banks may consider instituting mechanisms that will ensure risk management is given prominence. A proactive approach must be taken to convert risks to opportunities by banks and other financial institutions, going forward, to cope with the vicissitudes of financial intermediation.Originality/valueThe originality of the study stems from the consideration that it provides some new insights into the impact of ERM on banks long-term sustainability in a developing country. The study also contributes to knowledge by exposing the factors determining the robustness of risk management practice. The study developed a checklist for assessing ERM practice from annual reports and other risk management disclosure documents. The paper also adds to the scarce literature on risk governance and risk management.

Modelling resilient fashion retail supply chain strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
P.R.S. Sarma ◽  
Aalok Kumar ◽  
Nishat Alam Choudhary ◽  
Sachin Kumar Mangla
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Online Platforms ◽  
Aspiration Levels ◽  
The Future ◽  
Optimisation Model ◽  
Fashion Retail ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to develop supply chain strategies for the fashion retail supply chain (FRSC), likely to be disrupted by the current pandemic (COVID-19) under physical and online retail stores. The resilient retail supply chain design is proposed under budget allocation and merchandise capacity constraints.Design/methodology/approachThis paper utilises the theory of constraint (ToC) and goal programming (GP) to address the COVID-19 impact on FRSC. The budgetary and capacity constraints are formulated with a constraint optimisation model and tested with six different priorities to deal with the physical and online stores. Next, all priorities are developed under different FRSC business scenarios. The ToC-GP-based optimisation model is validated with one of the Indian fashion retail supply chains.FindingsThe proposed optimisation model presents the optimal retailing strategies for selling fashion goods over physical and online platforms. The multiple scenarios are presented for developing trade-offs among different strategies to maximise the retailer's merchandise performance. This paper also highlighted the strategic movement from high merchandise density stores to low merchandise density stores. This implies a reduction of sales targets and aspiration levels of both online and physical fashion stores.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed model is validated with one of the fashion retailers in India. Other nations or multiple fashion retailers might be considered for more generalisation of findings in the future.Practical implicationsThis research helps fashion retail supply chain managers deal with consumer demand uncertainty over physical and online stores in pandemic times. Limitation: Other nations or multiple fashion retailers might be considered for more generalisation of findings in the future.Originality/valueThis is the first study that considered the impact of COVID-19 on the retail fashion supply chain. The effect of physical and online platforms is mainly discussed from consumer marketing perspectives, but an inventory and resilience perspective is missing in earlier studies. The role of merchandise planning is highlighted in this study.

The future of the management of projects in the 2030s

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Walker ◽  
Beverley Lloyd-Walker
Keyword(s):  
Project Managers ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Workplace Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Routine Work ◽  
The Future ◽  
Management Project ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore recent literature on the impact of changes in the workplace environment and projected trends through to the year 2030. This allows the authors to identify and discuss what key trends are changing the nature of project organising work. The authors aim to identify what knowledge and which skills, attributes and experiences will be most likely valued and needed in 2030. Design/methodology/approach This paper is essentially a reflective review and is explorative in nature. The authors focus on several recent reports published in the UK and Australia that discuss the way that the future workforce will adapt and prepare for radical changes in the workplace environment. The authors focus on project organising work and the changing workplace knowledge, skills, attributes and experience (KSAE) needs of those working in project teams in 2030 and beyond. The authors draw upon existing KSAE literature including findings from a study undertaken into the KSAEs of project alliance managers working in a highly collaborative form of project delivery. Findings The analysis suggests that there is good and bad news about project workers prospects in 2030. The good news is that for those working in non-routine roles their work will be more interesting and rewarding than is the case for today. The bad news is that for workers in routine work roles, they will be replaced by advanced digital technology. Research limitations/implications Few, if any, papers published in the project organising literature speculate about what this discipline may look like or what KSAEs will be valued and needed. Practical implications This paper opens up a debate about how project management/project organising work will be undertaken in future and what skills and expertise will be required. It also prompts project managers to think about how they will craft their careers in 2030 in response to expected work environment demands. This will have professional and learning implications. Social implications The issue of the future workplace environment is highly relevant to the social context. Originality/value This paper is about a projected future some 12 years onward from today. It bridges a gap in any future debate about how project organising jobs may change and how they will be delivered in the 2030s.

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