Volatility discovery in cryptocurrency markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Dimpfl ◽  
Dalia Elshiaty
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Discrete Version ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Information Shares ◽  
The Common ◽  
To Come

PurposeCryptocurrency markets are notoriously noisy, but not all markets might behave in the exact same way. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate which one of the cryptocurrency markets contributes the most to the common volatility component inherent in the market.Design/methodology/approachThe paper extracts each of the cryptocurrency's markets' latent volatility using a stochastic volatility model and, subsequently, models their dynamics in a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The authors use the refinement of Lien and Shrestha (2009, J. Futures Mark) to come up with unique Hasbrouck (1995, J. Finance) information shares.FindingsThe authors’ findings indicate that Bitfinex is the leading market for Bitcoin and Ripple, while Bitstamp dominates for Ethereum and Litecoin. Based on the dominant market for each cryptocurrency, the authors find that the volatility of Bitcoin explains most of the volatility among the different cryptocurrencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors’ findings are limited by the availability of the cryptocurrency data. Apart from Bitcoin, the data series for the other cryptocurrencies are not long enough to ensure the precision of the authors’ estimates.Originality/valueTo date, only price discovery in cryptocurrencies has been studied and identified. This paper extends the current literature into the realm of volatility discovery. In addition, the authors propose a discrete version for the evolution of a markets fundamental volatility, extending the work of Dias et al. (2018).

Cue-less consumers in factory outlet stores: reference price effects on consumer evaluations when semantic phrases are missing

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-426
Author(s):  
Jay P. Carlson ◽  
Larry D. Compeau
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Consumer Evaluations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumer Responses ◽  
Semantic Cues ◽  
Reference Prices ◽  
Price Effects ◽  
The Common ◽  
To Come

Purpose Prior research has demonstrated that reference prices can affect consumer responses, but the reference prices examined have been presented along with semantic cues [e.g. manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) and Compare At]. This study is unique in investigating the effects of reference prices that do not include a semantic cue (i.e. “cue-less”) on consumers’ responses. It also studies consumers’ beliefs about factory outlet stores, a seldom-studied store type in which cue-less reference prices are used. Design/methodology/approach One qualitative study and one experiment were carried out in this research. Findings The qualitative study revealed that a price tag including cue-less reference prices was unlikely to be viewed as a seller mistake or with suspicion, but nonetheless did confuse some respondents. The experiment demonstrated that while consumers find cue-less reference prices to be somewhat less believable that high MSRPs, these beliefs do not appear to come into play when consumers judge attractiveness (e.g. perceived value). Additionally, the results suggest that consumers believe that a product available for sale in a factory outlet store is likely to have been previously available at a different type of store. Originality/value This research advances the theory of the effects of reference prices on consumers’ responses by examining the common practice of not labeling reference prices with semantic cues. It also extends the literature regarding consumer beliefs about factory outlet stores.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

Unveiling the myths of M&A integration: challenging general management and consulting practice

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Bauer ◽  
Julia Hautz ◽  
Kurt Matzler
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Research Management ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Senior Managers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Development ◽  
General Management ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
The Common ◽  
Successful Integration

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to detect and challenge generally accepted management and consulting practice in Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As). M&As have been an important issue in strategic management and corporate development for decades. The integration process of two separate entities has been found to be of importance, and has, accordingly, received a significant amount of attention by research, management and consulting literature. Based on these insights, managers tend to rely on well-established and generally accepted rules developed by practice and consultants that should support a successful integration process and the generation of value. Nonetheless, M&As’ efforts still often fail to create value. So is the common practice of the established drivers and beneficial consequences of the integration of M&As right, or do the experiences of consultants, companies and managers reveal something different? Design/methodology/approach – To understand these challenges, the authors spent four years studying M&A projects and subsequent integration processes of more than 400 companies that engaged in M&A efforts. The data derived from four survey-based quantitative studies among more than 430 CEOs, CFOs and other senior managers in the field of M&As and personal interviews that were conducted to get in-depth insights. Findings – This extensive research on the efforts and projects of M&As over many years and including many companies reveals that successful integration processes are complex, social and culturally dependent endeavors and that the application of commonly accepted and established principles oversimplifies and disregards the interdependencies. Originality/value – The present paper unveils four established principles concerning the successful integration after M&As as tenacious myths and provides more differentiated insights into value-destroying and value-creating mechanisms in M&As.

Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-38
Author(s):  
Travis J. Berge
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
The Common ◽  
Gap Estimate

Abstract A factor stochastic volatility model estimates the common component to output gap estimates produced by the staff of the Federal Reserve, its time-varying volatility, and time-varying, horizon-specific forecast uncertainty. The output gap estimates are uncertain even well after the fact. Nevertheless, the common component is clearly procyclical, and positive innovations to the common component produce movements in macroeconomic variables consistent with an increase in aggregate demand. Heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the common component's volatility, leads to persistently negative economic responses.

Seeking transparency makes one blind: how to rethink disclosure, account for nature and make corporations sustainable

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Quattrone
Keyword(s):  
Social Inequality ◽  
Common Good ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Behavior ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
The Common ◽  
Human Actors

PurposeFinancial and nonfinancial disclosures are still anchored to conventional notions of transparency, whereby corporations “push” information out to various stakeholders. Such information is now “pulled” from various sources and addresses aspects of corporate behavior that go well beyond those envisioned by the disclosure framework. This shift makes notions of values, measurement and accountability more fragmented, complex and difficult. The paper aims to bring the accounting scholarly debate back to what and how transparency can be achieved especially in relation to issues of social inequality and sustainability.Design/methodology/approachAfter an analysis of the limitations of current approaches to disclosure, the paper proposes a shift toward normative policies that profit of years of critique of positivism.FindingsDrawing on the notion of value-added, the paper ends with a new income statement design, labeled as Value-Added Statement for Nature, which recognizes Nature as a further stakeholder and forces human stakeholders to give voice, or at least acknowledge the lack of voice, for non-human actors.Originality/valueThe author proposes a shift in the perspective, practice and institutional arrangements in which disclosure occurs. Measurement and transparency need to happen in communication exercises, which do not presuppose what needs to be made transparent once and for good but define procedures on how to make fragmented, complex, multiple and volatile notions of value transparent. Income statements and accounting more in general is to be reconceived as a platform where stakeholders will have to continuously negotiate what counts as the common good in the interest of all, including Nature.

scholarly journals Accounting for the messiness of the research process: the fieldpath approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perttu Salovaara
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Human Ethics ◽  
Conceptual Paper ◽  
The Common ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose It has recently become more acknowledged that there is a quality of “messiness” to the qualitative research process. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the fieldpath approach—a hermeneutically inspired framework—to account for the non-linearity, uncertainty and ambiguity of the research process. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual paper reviews how the scope of hermeneutics has been partly misunderstood. The paper discusses how the scope of hermeneutics has lately been expanded by works such as Günter Figal’s (2010) Objectivity: The Hermeneutical and Philosophy. Findings The fieldpath approach proposes that a heightened relation to materiality enables the messiness of the process to be preserved, while at the same time offering a way to find one’s footing in the midst of ontologically incomplete phenomena that are still—in a processual fashion—forming and becoming. Research limitations/implications This is a conceptual paper. In addition to the research mentioned here, more studies would be needed to legitimise, test and refine the approach. Practical implications Objectivity provides an additional criterion for researchers to lean on when facing the non-linearity and unexpected turns inherent in the qualitative research process. Social implications The stress on materiality involves an ethical dimension. Post-human ethics are concerned with the future environmental consequences and sustainability of the material world. The way that matter matters in our methodologies is of primary importance. Originality/value First, the paper emphasises that hermeneutics, contrary to the common perception, does offer criteria for evaluating between interpretations. Second, it introduces the notion of hermeneutic objectivity, which stresses the importance of materiality for interpretations. Third, it introduces the fieldpath approach, which, based on the previous criterion of hermeneutic objectivity, allows for the messiness of the research process, while also preserving a tight grip on the hermeneutic imperative of “understanding in a new way”.

Returns and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrency portfolios

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Olaleke Fasanya ◽  
Oluwatomisin Oyewole ◽  
Temitope Odudu
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Major Market ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Variance Decompositions

PurposeThis paper examines the return and volatility spillovers among major cryptocurrency using daily data from 10/08/2015 to 15/04/2018.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the Dielbold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover approach and rolling sample analysis to capture the inherent secular and cyclical movements in the cryptocurrency market.FindingsThe authors show that there is substantial difference between the behaviour of the cryptocurrency portfolios return and volatility spillover indices over time. The authors find evidence of interdependence among cryptocurrency portfolios given the spillover indices. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the currency portfolios, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises. Interestingly, return and volatility spillovers exhibit both trends and bursts respectively.Originality/valueThis study makes a methodological contribution by adopting Dielbold and Yilmaz (2012) approach to quantify the returns and volatility transmissions among cryptocurrencies. To the best of our knowledge, little or no study has adopted the Dielbold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology to investigate this dynamic relationship in the cryptocurrencies market. The Dielbold and Yilmaz (2012) approach provides a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and volatilities by exploiting the generalized vector autoregressive framework, which produces variance decompositions that are unaffected by ordering.

Model behavior

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-6
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Strategic Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Right ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings One of the essential aspects of strategy that many executives struggle to come to terms with is the ethereal nature of it as a pursuit. Unlike logistics or finance, it has a wispy, intangible nature that refuses to be nailed down for a minute. Just as one executive thinks they have the right strategic plan, then the market will change, the environment will change, or any of the thousands of things that the strategy depended on will shift, leaving the firm high and dry, still looking for that killer app that will lead to competitive advantage. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

When face meets globalization

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyang Huang ◽  
Jiaxun He
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Consumer Culture ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Branding ◽  
The Common ◽  
Moderation Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose Synthesizing the unique Confucian cultural values and the common characteristics of emerging markets, the purpose of this paper is to examine how face drives consumers’ attitudes toward global consumer culture positioning (GCCP) as well as the moderating roles of social aggrandizement and susceptibility to normative influence (SNI). Design/methodology/approach The authors adopt the total effect moderation model to test the hypotheses using data collected from China. Findings The results show that face positively affects consumers’ attitudes toward GCCP through enhancing their pursuit for global myth. In addition, social aggrandizement positively moderates the influence of face on pursuit for global myth. SNI positively moderates the influence of pursuit for global myth on attitudes toward GCCP. Practical implications The findings of this study highlight the need to utilize local powers to promote brands globally and provide guidelines for “Think Globally, Act Locally” in Confucian societies. Originality/value This study represents an important step in the global branding literature regarding the advancement of culturally driven attitudes toward GCCP by taking root in the Confucian culture.

Developing a hard skin

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 16-18
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Cutting Edge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Important Stage ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Soccer Team ◽  
To Come ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose of this paper This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings An English soccer team manager – known for his colorful language and slightly off-kilter views – once described his team as having great “bouncebackability”. He was describing how, at an important stage of the season, they were able to come back from a defeat to win games. This word is now included in several dictionaries, but at the time it was a completely new word. It was effective because it was instantly understandable and therefore had meaning, even though nobody had heard it before. Practical implications Provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations. What is original/value of paper? The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

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