Swiss policy turn may dampen Polish consumption

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact on Central Europe of the reverse in Swiss monetary policy. Significance The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) decision in January to scrap its exchange-rate peg against the euro raised concerns about a mortgage repayment crisis and lending practices in Central Europe (CE). Banks across the region are well capitalised on the whole, and better placed to absorb the impact of financial risks arising from the decision than those of countries further south-east, where deleveraging has continued. Banks in the Czech Republic and Hungary are the least exposed to foreign exchange (FX) risk; those in Poland are the most exposed. Impacts Poland's capital-adequacy ratios and strong credit portfolio will offset balance-sheet risks, but profits may fall in the short term. Hungary's banking sector is under heavy strain as a result of the government's FX debt relief programme. However, the Funding for Growth Scheme, and high forint and FX reserves, provide a liquidity buffer. Czech banks are CE's most profitable and liquid and will not be affected owing to tiny exposure to Swiss franc denominated loans.

Determinants of bank profitability: evidence from 47 Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi
Keyword(s):  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Demand Deposits ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe paper examines the effect of bank-specific, financial structure and macroeconomic factors on the profitability of banks in Asian economies during 1995–2017.Design/methodology/approachIt uses the data of 2,446 banks across 47 Asian countries between 1995 and 2017 (41,582 year observations). The static and dynamic panel generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimation techniques are applied.FindingsThe results show that banks that are highly dependent on nontraditional activities have lower net interest revenue and net interest margin but higher return on assets, return on equity and profit before tax. Higher opportunity cost, capitalization, demand deposits and market risk result in a better bank profits. Furthermore, banks with higher loan exposure and growth have more profit. However, nonperforming loans have negative and significant impact on bank profitability. Asian banks do not suffer from diseconomies of scale and scope. The author also finds that banks located in countries with high gross domestic product, inflation rates and high rates of interest or in financially developed economies offer better profits. High credit to the private sector reduces the bank profitability. This study finds evidence to support the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis. It also provides evidence that the impact of financial turmoil on the profitability of the Asian banking sector is negative and significant and has severely weakened the Asian banking system.Originality/valueAs Asia has become an important economic area and the Asian topic has not earned enough discussions, this paper is the first to examine Asian banks with the latest and a wider range of panel data that cover 2,446 banks at 47 Asian countries over the period 1995–2017. The present study is among the first to address the influence of financial turmoil on bank profitability in this region. It also studies new variables, such as demand deposits, opportunity cost and off-balance sheet activities, which have not been examined in relation to bank profitability. It also applies both static techniques and dynamic panel estimation techniques to analyze the data.

Stressed assets, off-balance sheet business activities and performance of Indian banking sector: a DEA double bootstrap approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Shahid Zaman ◽  
Anup Kumar Bhandari
Keyword(s):  
Technical Efficiency ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Bank Efficiency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bootstrap Approach ◽  
Double Bootstrap ◽  
Indian Banks

Purpose This paper examines the technical efficiency (TE) of Indian commercial banks during 1998–2015. Design/methodology/approach This study uses mathematical programming-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology to measure technical efficiency of Indian banks. Further, Simar and Wilson (2007) double bootstrap procedure is applied to examine the determinants of efficiency of the Indian banks, by examining the effects of various bank specific and other contextual variables. Findings The results indicate substantial upward bias in the conventional efficiency estimates of the Indian commercial banks. Needless to note, such upward bias is consistent with the theoretical postulates. The bootstrapped regression results show that increasing capital adequacy ratio is positively associated with bank efficiency. The popular belief that non-performing assets have a dampening effect on performance of banks is validated. Among others, ownership category is observed to be an important determining factor of bank efficiency. Specifically, state-owned banks (SOBs) are relatively lagging behind the foreign banks. Moreover, larger banks are observed to have a significantly higher level of efficiency, therefore, recent official policy initiatives toward consolidation of SOBs are validated. Originality/value As this study uses Simar and Wilson (2007) bootstrap approach, it enables the authors to have an estimate of the extent of bias in the traditional DEA TE scores. It also helps us drawing consistent inferences by rectifying the problem of serial correlation in the conventional second stage regression in this regard.

scholarly journals Prediction of financial distress in the Spanish banking system

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (82) ◽  
pp. 69-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Paule-Vianez ◽  
Milagros Gutiérrez-Fernández ◽  
José Luis Coca-Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Problems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to construct the first short-term financial distress prediction model for the Spanish banking sector. Design/methodology/approach The concept of financial distress covers a range of different types of financial problems, in addition to bankruptcy, which is not common in the sector. The methodology used to predict financial problems was artificial neural networks using traditional financial variables according to the capital, assets, management, earnings, liquidity and sensibility system, as well as a series of macroeconomic variables, the impact of which has been proven in a number of studies. Findings The results obtained show that artificial neural networks are a highly suitable method for studying financial distress in Spanish credit institutions and for predicting all cases in which an entity has short-term financial problems. Originality/value This is the first work that tries to build a model of artificial neural networks to predict the financial distress in the Spanish banking system, grouping under the concept of financial distress, apart from bankruptcy, other financial problems that affect the viability of these entities.

Determinants of bank shareholder value: evidence from GCC countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
National Level ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Demand Deposits ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of bank specific, financial structure and macroeconomic factors on the shareholder value of banks in GCC economies during 2000–2017. Design/methodology/approach To estimate the model and analyze the data collected from the BankScope and World Bank World Development Indicator database, the author uses static panel estimation techniques as well as two-step difference and system dynamic generalized method of moments estimator. Findings The results show that banks that are highly dependent on non-traditional activities have higher shareholder value. Higher opportunity cost, capitalization and demand deposits result in a better bank shareholder value. Furthermore, banks with higher loan exposure and growth have better shareholder value. Non-performing loans and market risk have insignificant effects on bank shareholder value. However, GCC banks suffer from diseconomies of scale and scope. The author also finds that banks located in countries with high inflation rates, high rates of interest or in financially developed economies offer better shareholder value. High credit to the private sector reduces the bank shareholder value. The paper also provides evidence that the impact of financial turmoil on the shareholder value of the GCC banking sector is negative and significant and has severely weakened the GCC banking system. Practical implications The results of this study necessitate formulation of various policy measures that can counter the effects of shareholder value of banks. Originality/value The present study is among the first to address the influence of financial turmoil on bank shareholder value. It also studies new variables, such as demand deposits, non-performing loans, loan growth, non-interest revenue and off-balance sheet activities, which have not been examined in relation to bank shareholder value. It also applies both static techniques and dynamic panel estimation techniques to analyze the data. The analysis is carried out at the aggregate level as well as at the national level and also provides several robustness analyses using various model specifications.

Tone, readability and financial risk: the case of GCC banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa Kamal Hassan ◽  
Bassam Abu-Abbas ◽  
Hany Kamel
Keyword(s):  
Audit Committee ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Negative Tone ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe authors investigate the impact of disclosure tones and financial risk on the readability of annual reports in the banking sector. The authors also examine the moderating effect of banks' financial risk on the tone–readability relationship.Design/methodology/approachThis study relies on the agency theory and the social psychology theory to formulate its testable hypotheses and explain the empirical findings. It uses a sample of 390 bank-year observations from banks listed in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Stock Exchanges during the period 2014–2019. It also employs random effect regressions to analyze the data and to examine the reverse causality/endogeneity in order to obtain robust findings.FindingsThis study’s results demonstrate that easy (difficult) to read annual reports is significantly associated with positive (negative) tone. Bank managers characterized as “too positive/optimistic” and banks with higher financial risks publish less readable annual reports. The results also show that the interaction between negative tone and a bank's financial risk is inversely associated with reading difficulty, indicating that managers prepare easy text to clarify causes of their banks’ high risks, yet they communicate this easy text with a negative tone that reflects their feelings/emotions towards the financial risks of their banks.Practical implicationsThis study’s findings call for the use of a plain English text that bears a neutral tone and urge financial analysts to go beyond the financial aspects of annual reports. They also stimulate policymakers to draft policies, which ensure the presence of audit committee members who possess a broad expertise to uncover the linguistic issues embedded in the annual reports.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study dedicated to exploring the tone–readability association in the GCC's banking sector.

VW scandal may affect investment in Central Europe

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Diesel Emissions ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electric Cars ◽  
Term Labour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Parts Suppliers

Subject The impact of the Volkswagen scandal on Central Europe. Significance Autos account for 15-25% of total exports across Central Europe (CE). Poland's consumer watchdog has launched an investigation into the Volkswagen (VW) emissions affair, which is likely to affect up to 150,000 cars locally, alongside an estimated 2 million in Hungary. The Czech authorities are yet to release official figures on locally manufactured cars fitted with 'defeat-device' software circumventing emissions checks; the Slovak government has been reticent about the likely impact on the economy. Impacts The greatest impact will probably fall on parts suppliers, for which demand is volatile and susceptible to short-term labour market changes. Falls in Czech and Hungarian industrial output should be short-lived and offset by buoyant domestic demand for cars produced locally. More stringent regulatory checks are expected on diesel-emissions technology by European and local regulators across CE. Over the longer term there will be more investment in electric cars, helping diversify sources of foreign capital in CE.

scholarly journals Resilience of commercial banks of Bangladesh to the shocks caused by COVID-19 pandemic: an application of MCDM-based approaches

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ratan Ghosh ◽  
Farjana Nur Saima
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Event ◽  
Low Performance ◽  
Credit Portfolio

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze and forecast the financial sustainability and resilience of commercial banks of Bangladesh in response to the negative effects of COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachEighteen publicly listed commercial banks of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) have been taken as a sample for this study. To measure the riskiness of banks' credit portfolio, nine industries of DSE have been considered to determine probable loss of revenue arising from the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Moreover, two commonly used multiple-criteria-decision-making (MCDM) tools namely TOPSIS method and HELLWIG method have been used for analyzing the data.FindingsBased on the performance scores under TOPSIS and HELLWIG method, banks are categorized into three groups (six banks each) namely top resilient, moderate resilient and low resilient. It is found that EBL and DBBL are the most resilient banks, and ONEBANK is the worst resilient bank in Bangladesh in managing the COVID-19 pandemic shock.Research limitations/implicationsThis study concludes that banks with low capital adequacy, low liquidity ratio, low performance and higher NPLs are more vulnerable to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The management of commercial banks should emphasize on maintaining higher capital base and reducing default loans.Originality/valueResilience of the Bangladeshi banking sector under any adverse economic event has been examined by only using stress testing approach. This study is empirical evidence where both TOPSIS and HELLWIG MCDM methods have been used to make the result conclusive.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE NON-PERFORMING LOANS TO BANKS’PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ljube Jolevski
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Large Share ◽  
Republic Of Macedonia ◽  
Weak Negative Correlation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The paper investigates the relationship between non-performing loans and the basic indicators for banks’performance. The analysis was conducted among the banking sector in the Republic of Macedonia for the period 2007-2015. The share of non-performing loans in total loans is one of the basic indicators for the quality of the credit portfolio in banks. The analysis of the movement and the level of non-performing loans is of great importance for identifying possible problems in bank risk management as a whole. With the application of correlation and regression method, we confirmed the findings of the consequences of non-performing loans on the performance of banks. The results indicate that a large share of non-performing loans to total loans leads to deterioration in the financial and liquidity position. There is a weak negative correlation between the rate of capital adequacy and non-performing loans ratio and that requires further research.

Macroprudential policies, crisis and risk-taking

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saibal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The role of macroprudential policies (MPPs) in influencing bank risk-taking has recently attracted significant attention in the literature. Several studies have emerged, both at the cross-country level as well as at the level of individual countries that have examined this issue. However, whether and to what extent do MPPs affect risk-taking by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banks has not been investigated in prior empirical research. Toward this end, using data during 1996-2010, the author examines the impact of MPPs on risk-taking by GCC banks. The author considers the entire gamut of MPPs – those focused on credit, capital and liquidity – and how they impact bank risk. Design/methodology/approach – In view of the possible endogeneity between the dependent variables and the crucial independent variable (i.e. MPP), the paper uses advanced panel data techniques that address this endogeneity. Toward this end, the author uses dynamic panel data methodology to examine the interlinkage between bank risk taking and MPPs for GCC banks. Findings – The findings appear to suggest that although MPPs are useful, not all of them are equally effective in containing the potential build-up of financial stress. Viewed from this standpoint, it appears that capital adequacy ratios and reserve requirements are the ones with maximum efficacy in limiting potential build-up of risks. Classifying the MPPs as per their impact on major balance sheet variables, the results indicate that capital-related measures tend to exert the greatest impact on credit. Originality/value – A significant volume of literature has emerged in recent years that examine the efficacy of MPPs on bank risk-taking. Notwithstanding available cross-country research, limited analysis on this aspect in the context of GCC banks. Toward this end, an extended sample of GCC banks has been used to examine this issue. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is one of the earliest studies for GCC banking systems to examine this issue.

scholarly journals Resistance of commercial banks to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Poland

Equilibrium ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zbigniew Korzeb ◽  
Paweł Niedziółka
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Linear Ordering ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Diagnostic Features ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
The Impact

Research background: The analysis allows to assess the impact of the industry structure of the credit portfolio on the resistance of commercial banks to the crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses two independent methods to measure the impact of the pandemic on industry risk and the methodology allowing to prioritize industries in terms of potential negative effects of the crisis. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to assess the resilience of commercial banks operating in the Polish banking sector to the potential effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The diagnostic features of 13 commercial banks were selected for its implementation. Methods: Two linear ordering methods were used, namely the Hellwig method and the TOPSIS method. The following were used as the criteria for parametric assessment of the resilience of commercial banks: capital adequacy, liquidity level, profitability of business activity, share in the portfolio of exposures with recognized impairment and the resilience of the bank's credit portfolio to the risk resulting from the exposure in economic sectors. These sectors were classified according to the level of risk associated with the effects of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings & Value added: The study allows to conclude that the largest banks conducting their operations in Poland are the most resistant ones to the consequences of the pandemic. At the same time, the banks most vulnerable due to the crisis were identified. The conclusions can be used, inter alia, in the process of managing the financial system stability risk and contribute to the discussion on the impact of the pandemic on the condition of commercial banks in emerging markets.

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