Singapore's ruling party is secure after Lee, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Spending ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Singapore's political outlook after Lee Kuan Yew's death. Significance Lee Kuan Yew died yesterday. Having served as prime minister -- Singapore's first -- for 31 years and continuing in other roles to 2011, Lee established a formidable legacy as the principal architect of the Singaporean state and its ruling People's Action Party (PAP). Lee's death poses no challenge to the stability of the PAP or Singapore itself. The PAP will continue to mobilise Lee's image as the nation's founder constantly to reaffirm its legitimacy, but it cannot be complacent with this legacy, as its recent budget implies. Impacts Elections will become gradually more competitive; the PAP is secure for now. As opposition political parties grow in number, they will probably organise for electoral advantage. Social welfare spending will rise as the PAP attempts to retain support, potentially requiring further tax increases.

Ruling party dominance will mean stability in Mongolia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance He was elected on June 9 with a record majority of nearly 68%, after stepping down as prime minister in January. The MPP now holds all the highest offices: the presidency, the office of the prime minister and the office of the speaker of parliament. Impacts Development plans and government finances will rely on rising copper prices. Despite high vaccination levels, COVID-19 is spreading and calls for more lockdowns are growing; these would threaten economic recovery. Beijing will see Khurelsukh as friendlier than his predecessors, but significant concessions to China are unlikely.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Tunisia’s democratic transition will struggle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Government

Significance This follows former Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa’s announcement on March 29 of a new, non-ideological party that includes technocrats and former ministers -- the Alternative Party. Six years after the 2011 Arab uprisings, Tunisian politics is still in flux -- facing serious social and economic challenges. Impacts Protests and industrial strikes will continue in the months ahead as the government tries to reduce public spending. Political parties are losing the trust of the population. Further cabinet reshuffles are likely, but political leaders are wary of making bold structural reforms.

Tanzania parties bill will tighten Magufuli’s grip

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Budget Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
High Court ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Tanzania's political parties bill. Significance On January 14, the High Court denied an opposition petition seeking to prevent a controversial set of amendments to the 2002 Political Parties Act being tabled in Tanzania’s National Assembly. The reforms would give the Registrar of Political Parties considerable powers to interfere in internal party processes. Impacts Stifling dissent will weaken the budget process, enabling more off-budget expenditures and likely populist budgets ahead of 2020 elections. Judicial independence will be tested as cases challenging this legislation or decisions such as the ban on political rallies multiply. Ruling party dissenters will have less room for manoeuvre, leaving them more reliant on any moderating influence party elders may have.

Abe's ambitious plan targets Japan's key risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Demographic Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Foreign Workers ◽  
Fiscal Planning ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The Abe government's new fiscal plans. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has set out a six-year programme that combines fiscal planning with social policies to promote economic growth under severe demographic pressure. Impacts The plans are unlikely to encounter serious opposition within the ruling party or parliament. Visa reforms will admit temporary foreign workers in much greater numbers, but will restrict the scope for immigration. Making education free of charge aims to boost fertility, but even if this works the demographic boost is decades away. Cutting taxes on car and house sales will reduce revenue unless it stimulates very significant increases in sales.

Bangladesh’s drug war helps ruling party in short term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Illegal Trade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
High Commissioner ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Bangladesh's narcotics crackdown. Significance Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is overseeing a ‘drug war’, with security personnel targeting illegal trade in yaba (methamphetamines). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has criticised the campaign, in which an estimated 150 people have been killed and at least 13,000 arrested since mid-May. The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to retain power in the general election, due by late December. Impacts The yaba trade will worsen social conditions in Rohingya refugee camps. India’s north-east could face an increasing problem of yaba trafficking. Bangladesh’s election campaign is likely to involve widespread use of undeclared money.

Dominican president will strive to run again

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Political Factions ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Ruling party struggles. Significance The Dominican Republic is enjoying strong economic growth but faces rising political uncertainty. Divisions within the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) over the Law of Political Parties and candidates for the 2020 presidential election have dominated debates in recent months. On June 7, after more than a year of investigations into the Odebrecht scandal, the Attorney General indicted seven politicians for bribery while controversially exonerating key PLD leaders. Impacts Internationally controversial anti-migration policies are unlikely to soften as political factions vie for public support. The Dominican Republic will remain one of the fastest-growing economies in the region despite political uncertainties. The country’s investment-friendly environment is unlikely to be at risk even during the electoral campaign.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Australian PM challenge will hinder policy agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Significance Although a victory in the short term for Abbott, the narrow margin will only intensify doubts about his long-term prospects as party leader and as prime minister. The challenge continues a trend of instability across Australia's main political parties. The country is poised to enter a record 25th year of uninterrupted economic growth, yet has changed prime minister four times since 2007. Impacts Australia will remain one of the most robust developed economies throughout 2015, with growth rates far above those of the EU. The Reserve Bank's decision to cut interest rates indicates that there are worries of the impact of the China-induced mining slowdown. Concerns in state capitals about housing bubbles will grow and may be an issue in the next federal election.

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