Philippines tilts towards Russia and China carry risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Development Plans

Significance This is part of his desire for an 'independent' foreign policy, which includes Manila distancing itself from Washington and seeking closer economic and military ties with China and Russia. Impacts Philippine purchases of Chinese and Russian arms will probably grow. Future US military aid to the Philippines may be curtailed or cancelled. China will provide more financing support for the Duterte administration's infrastructure development plans. Closer ties with Beijing and Moscow may reduce Manila's interest in joining the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership. The mid-November APEC Summit in Peru provides further opportunity for Duterte to meet Russian and Chinese leaders.

New Philippines foreign policy may be destabilising

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Position

Significance Liu was speaking to a Philippines delegation, an illustration of the Duterte administration's initial efforts to forge a new foreign policy and to repair ties with China. Impacts The Philippine communist insurgents, with whom Duterte is negotiating, will push for the US alliance to be cancelled. Duterte's new foreign policy allied with his reaching out to the communists may alienate the Philippine armed forces. Intra-ASEAN pressure to adopt a stronger common position on the South China Sea will reduce. Future US military aid to the Philippines could be at risk. Knowing that Manila cannot respond militarily and thus seeks warmer ties, Beijing may be bullish in Philippine waters.

US Congress will challenge deterrence strategy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Significance Trump and his immediate predecessors have made extensive use of powers granted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to deploy armed force widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives seeks to curtail this. For the administration, this is a direct challenge to its ability to rebuild deterrence, in an age of rising inter-state competition, through greater military capability and convincing rivals that it can and will be used. Impacts Trump will campaign electorally on rebuilding the US military and deterrence capability. The administration will continue ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran but avoid new highly provocative steps. Trump will seek to reinvigorate North Korea talks and push his Middle East peace deal, to boost re-election prospects. Congress, especially Democrats, will try to limit Trump’s foreign policy powers, unsuccessfully, without veto-proof majorities. Unless and until Trump is re-elected, US allies and adversaries will be less likely to bow to administration policy pressure.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Iran nuclear deal will reshape Israeli security agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Community ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
International Recognition ◽  
International Sanctions

Subject Israel's policy to post-agreement Iran. Significance With the international community on the verge of signing a deal with Iran that would end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme, Israel is preparing to deal with the consequences. The deal would bolster Israel's security by preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weaponised state. However, it is also likely to empower Iran, by leading to the unraveling of the international sanctions regime, and giving Iran de facto international recognition as a regional power. Impacts Israel's Republican allies in US Congress will make it extremely hard for Obama to lift congressional bilateral sanctions. However, neither Congress nor Israel have the power to block a deal from going ahead. Israel will use the deal to secure 'compensation' in the form of additional US military aid. A deal would allow the army to transfer resources to confronting asymmetric campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel will strengthen its ties with Sunni states that also oppose Iran.

Philippines-US alliance could soon sour

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Philippines ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Significance Washington is one of Manila's oldest partners, but the outlook for ties is mixed amid the coming US presidential transition and following recent controversial comments by Duterte. Impacts Painting Washington as an unreliable ally could help Duterte win over the communist insurgents he is negotiating with. Duterte's controversial crime crackdown will weaken US congressional support for aid to the Philippines. If Trump wins the US presidency, his immigration plans could destabilise Philippine remittances inflows.

Brazil domestic woes set back ambitious Africa policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
West Africa ◽  
International Law ◽  
Financial Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Law And Justice

Significance The case investigates whether Lula illegally used his overseas connections to assist Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht, which has considerable African investments. Expanding influence into Africa began under Lula. It has since been at the heart of Brazil's broader push to advance its global and regional credentials. The economic slowdown raised doubts about its ability to sustain this push. The Petrobras corruption scandal has accelerated such scepticism, threatening to reduce significantly the scope of Brazil's foreign policy in the region. Impacts Ties with smaller Lusophone states in West Africa prioritise security, reflecting that sub-region's geostrategic position for Brazil. Brazil plays prominent international law and justice roles in those states but through UN structures -- limiting the financial impact. Brazil's small military capacity constrains its scope to rebuff US military presence in the smaller Lusophone states.

Iraq's Abadi likely to survive reform challenge

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Step Down

Significance Criticism of his reforms, which involve sweeping cuts to government positions and an anti-corruption drive, has mounted in recent weeks despite initially receiving strong support from Shia politicians. However, parliamentarians are now openly debating whether parliament should withdraw its support for the reforms, with some even suggesting that Abadi should step down. Impacts Abadi's reform drive may stall if he is forced to reverse his cuts to government positions and create new ones to rebuild his support base. Failure to rein in public spending will affect Iraq's attempts to seek international financial assistance. Abadi's weakening would strengthen the Shia militias, and thereby reduce prospects for reconciliation with the Sunni community. It would also increase attempts by hardliners to sideline the US military in the fight against ISG. Abadi may well climb down on the public sector salary issue and attempt to depoliticise it.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

Taiwan will benefit from US-China friction

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
State Department ◽  
The State ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opening Ceremony ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
At Home

Significance Taiwan-US relations got a symbolic boost when the US government opened a new 250-million-dollar institute to house the de facto embassy in Taipei, Taiwan's capital, on June 12. President Tsai Ing-wen, and a US delegation that included representatives from Congress and the State Department, attended the opening ceremony. It may have received greater attention and perhaps higher-ranking US representation had the first US-North Korea summit not been scheduled for the same day. Impacts Taiwan's president will be constrained from improving China ties by anti-China sentiment at home. More businesses could come under Chinese pressure as cross-Strait relations deteriorate further. Taiwan-US military cooperation will prompt more aggressive Chinese efforts to diminish Taiwan's standing and increase military intimidation.

Biden will prompt reset of US-Caribbean relations

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Regional Interests

Significance The US foreign policy stance towards the Caribbean is likely to become more constructive under Biden. As previously, Washington’s main regional interests will relate to Haiti and Cuba. Biden’s stance towards the latter in particular will be scrutinised during his first few months in office. Impacts US economic stimulus plans and the evolution of the pandemic will have knock-on effects for Caribbean economies. A relaxation of restrictions on Cuba could facilitate increased investment into the country, especially in the tourism sector. Increasing Chinese engagement with the region will concern Washington, potentially fostering more US investment.

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