Kenya report reveals financial mismanagement burden

Subject Auditor general's report. Significance The auditor general's report on the 2013-2014 financial period has indicated that only around one quarter of all national government money spent and collected was properly accounted for. The report covers the first year in power for President Uhuru Kenyatta's government, which has consistently pledged to reduce financial mismanagement. However, the report, combined with mounting concerns about corruption at the county level, calls into question whether the Jubilee Alliance has the will or capacity to bring the problem under control. Impacts Claims of financial abuse heighten distrust of the government in opposition communities who feel excluded from access to state resources. Rising corruption will deter foreign investors, reinforcing Kenya's tendency to underperform on foreign investment levels. Corruption is undermining major infrastructure projects, preventing the economic gains that would come from better roads and railways.

Significance Tax cuts were announced earlier this month for foreign investment in infrastructure, including transport, energy, water and communication. The move follows concerns that spending on infrastructure is too low for Australia’s projected population growth. Impacts The stimulus does not involve any new spending and will require the support of state governments, which co-fund some projects. Tax concessions will help ease a competitive disadvantage faced by foreign investors, but there will still be market barriers. Uncertain confidence in the current government could depress foreign investor interest. If it maintains the budget surplus, the government will keep backbenchers’ support.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


Significance The government has changed hands only once since independence in 1966: in 1992 the People's Progressive Party (PPP), led by Cheddi Jagan, assumed power following 26 years of People's National Congress (PNC) government. Since the last election in 2011 the government has been hamstrung by a parliament in which a coalition of opposition parties, including the PNC, held a one-seat majority. The result has been gridlock, with no new legislation approved, and continuous disputes over the budget, government spending and agreements with foreign investors. Impacts The election could allow a new government to work toward consensus-building. This might facilitate policies to develop Guyana's potential, and narrow the socioeconomic gap with the rest of the region. If the result is close, political tension and deadlock will persist, undermining the business climate, investment and social progress.


Subject Myanmar's business environment. Significance The government is instituting measures to improve the business climate and attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into the economy. As part of this effort, on February 24, it instituted the Competition Act. However, while there has been an influx of new FDI, foreign investors remain wary -- largely because of the challenges of navigating Myanmar's old and complex regulatory environment. Impacts Economic reforms could slow in the event of an opposition electoral victory, as the new government gains experience. Improvements to the business environment could be constrained by a faltering or failed ethnic peace process. Regulatory reforms backed up by effective administration could contribute to equitable economic growth.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Subject The fall in foreign investment last year. Significance The government has launched a new Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (APIE) to buck a sharp drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year. Breaking with the country's long-standing sector-agnostic approach, the agency will seek to attract investment to specific sectors, including energy, public infrastructure and the food industry. Impacts A more business-friendly administration in Argentina could potentially divert FDI from Chile. Critics of the new FDI regulation maintain that it will dampen inflows. Efforts to attract investment in food and mining services represent a bid to diversify from mineral exports.


Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


Subject Prospects for Argentina in 2017. Significance The government has placed its hopes on a rapid recovery in economic activity and investment after admitting that many indicators have deteriorated in its first year in office. However, while there are some signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, these have yet to be felt at the popular level.


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