China's woes will hit South-east Asia's economies

Subject China's currency depreciation and the effect on South-east Asian economies. Significance South-east Asian economies are coming under pressure from a global stock market sell-off triggered by concern that China's economy may be slowing faster than expected. The People's Bank of China has made efforts to manage the market instability, including devaluing the renminbi by 4% since August 11 and cutting interest rates on August 25. Nonetheless, regional confidence has been shaken. Impacts External debt repayments could become unsustainable if regional currencies weaken further. South-east Asia's tourism industry will suffer as outbound travel becomes more expensive for Chinese. Chinese investment in ASEAN will probably slow.

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.


Subject Implications of a US rates hike for South-east Asian economies. Significance Stress from the dollar's rapid appreciation could spill into ASEAN economies if a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike goes ahead in September. Fears of capital flight are already being realised in South-east Asia as foreign investors lose confidence in the growth prospects of key economies and withdraw their funds from stock and bond markets. The devaluation of the yuan last week has further destabilised ASEAN currencies by removing an anchor of stability. Commodity exporters Malaysia and Indonesia will suffer the deepest impacts, but market contagion could drag other industrialised South-east Asian economies into a currency crisis. Impacts Financial systems have adequate safeguards against market volatility, but liquidity would suffer. Capital controls could be employed if conditions deteriorate in foreign-exchange markets. Rising repayment costs on dollar loans could trigger debt defaults.


Subject Prospects for South-east Asian economies in 2018. Significance Stronger global demand for ASEAN’s goods and services exports and higher prices for commodity exports are fuelling faster South-east Asian GDP growth across the region; the international organisations expect growth to accelerate to at least 5.2% in 2018, picking up from close to 5.0% in 2017 and nearer 4.5% in 2014-16.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaomin Li ◽  
Seung Ho Park ◽  
Rosey Shuji Bao

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to use the framework of rule-based and relation-based governance to examine the evolution of governance environment in the East Asian region including China, South Korea and Taiwan. Design/methodology/approach Both qualitative and quantitative evidences are presented to demonstrate the paths these East Asian countries take in their transitions from relation-based governance to rule-based governance. Based on the framework, this analysis sheds light on the debate on whether East Asian economies will eventually move away from relation-based governance to rule-based societies. Findings The authors find that relation-based governance has helped East Asian countries achieve rapid economic growth in the early stages of their development. However, as the scale and scope of East Asian economies expand, continuing to rely on it may hinder their further development and therefore these countries should adopt a rule-based governance system in order to be efficient and competitive in the world market. While South Korea and Taiwan have made substantial progress in this transition, China has just embarked on the process. Originality/value This paper is among the first to systematically review the theories and evidence of the transition and the challenges East Asian countries face during the process.


SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110223
Author(s):  
Jahanzaib Haider ◽  
Abdul Qayyum ◽  
Zalina Zainudin

This study analyzes the leverage policies of the family and non-family firms of eight East Asian Economies (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan) by using combined data of 690 family and non-family firms with 3,224 firm–years over the period 2006–2010. This study has used an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for analyzing the data for the first question, while for the second question, logit regression has been used as the dependent variable (a binary variable). Prior research on family and non-family firms has revealed that family firms issue less (high) debt than non-family firms. Our analysis on a sample of East Asian Economies discloses that family firms have significantly different leverage levels than non-family firms, but their signs are not consistent. On the contrary, when the owner works as CEO/Chairman or member of the Board of Directors, then the family firms issue less debt than the non-family firms. Besides that, this study adds a new question that has not been addressed in the prior studies. The new question has focused on the speed of leverage adjustment. It is found that family firms and non-family firms regarding their debt maturity structure (short-term debt and long-term debt), the speed of leverage adjustments, and their decision to issue securities (i.e., debt vs. equity) are not significantly different. This study concluded that though family firms have a strong influence on each economy, but in South-East Asian countries, leverage policies of the family firms are not much different than that of non-family firms.


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