Myanmar elections will beget coalition government

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Union Election ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Scenarios for the outcome of November 8 elections. Significance The Union Election Commission (UEC) will soon announce the results of its scrutiny of the applicants to be candidates for national and provincial parliamentary seats in November 8 elections. The formal election campaign begins on September 8. The ouster on August 13 by President Thein Sein's supporters of lower house parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann from his other post of Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) chairman leaves potential election outcomes in flux. Impacts Ties between the military and USDP will grow, but Shwe Mann could split the USDP after the election. The military will not intervene in the election, provided its political and economic interests are not challenged. Ethnic violence will mark the election campaign. Post-election coalition-building will slow legislation.

Yingluck impeachment raises Thai political stakes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Criminal Charges ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Her impeachment is part of the junta's broader effort permanently to prevent the Shinawatra family from regaining power. The second step, Yingluck's arraignment before the Supreme Court on criminal charges also related to the rice scheme, will take place in February. In addition, the Election Commission has announced that it, too, may bring charges against Yingluck in coming weeks, allegedly for using government funds for her election campaign last February. Impacts The military can prevent any violent uprising by Thaksin supporters -- for the time being. Should the junta overplay its hand, the risk of an uprising would rise, potentially jeopardising foreign investment. The risk of tighter international sanctions against Thailand is minimal.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Myanmar exposes social media risks in South-east Asia

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Societal Impact ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Dual Use ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Systematic Manipulation

Subject Facebook and anti-Rohingya violence. Significance On November 6, Facebook released the conclusions of a study it had commissioned on the use of its platform to foment ethnic violence in Myanmar. The report found that systematic manipulation of social media -- primarily by the military and extremist Buddhist groups -- stoked communal tensions and incited violence against Rohingya Muslims. Impacts Authoritarian regimes across the world will abuse tighter content filters for censorship. Non-democracies will embrace Chinese dual-use technology for their effectiveness and affordability. Profit will trump societal impact in Facebook’s business strategy, despite pressure for digital responsibility.

Congo army reform will inflame institutional rivalry

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coalition Government ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capacity To Act ◽  
Eastern Congo ◽  
The Military ◽  
Two Sides

Significance The changes have stoked rising tensions within the fragile coalition government between Tshisekedi’s Camp for Change (CACH) platform and Kabila’s Common Front for Congo (FCC) coalition. Impacts The military situation in eastern Congo remains precarious and might be negatively influenced by the recent changes. Key generals removed from power, most notably John Numbi, have considerable capacity to act as spoilers. The polarised political climate between the two sides of the FCC-CACH coalition will spark tensions and periodic violence in major cities.

Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

The Union Election Commission of Myanmar 2010–2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Catherine Renshaw ◽  
Michael Lidauer
Keyword(s):  
Significant Degree ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Union Election ◽  
General Elections ◽  
National League ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Election Commission

Abstract The 2008 Constitution of the Union of Myanmar establishes the framework for a ‘discipline-flourishing’ constitutional democracy in which the Tatmadaw, the Burmese military, retains a significant degree of power. Under this Constitution, the Union Election Commission (UEC) is vested with significant authority to supervise elections, regulate political parties and electoral campaigns, register voters, suspend elections, and to make conclusive determinations in electoral disputes. Between 2010 and 2020, the UEC oversaw three consecutive general elections and three by-elections. Following a term under the former military leadership, the country's major democratic opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won a resounding victory in the 2015 elections. In the years that followed, civilian-military relations were a source of tension, as the NLD attempted to reform the executive and legislative roles for the military guaranteed by the Constitution. These tensions became in particular tangible during the 2020 elections, which the NLD again won in a landslide victory. The military alleged the election was marred by fraud while the UEC rejected this allegation. On 1 February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to convene, the Tatmadaw staged a coup d’état. This article reviews the UEC in its constitutional and political context. It identifies its institutional features, significant points in its brief history, and the impact of UEC leadership as a contributing factor in fostering confidence in the electoral process.

Referendum embeds semi-authoritarian rule in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Although official results are due on August 10, the Election Commission has announced that, after a count of 94% of votes, both questions posed in the referendum -- on the draft constitution and on the role of the appointed Senate in selecting the prime minister -- have won approval by 61% and 58% respectively. This is a major political victory for the military's National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Impacts The military, the palace and all major political parties favour an open economy. This will secure investor interest in Thailand. Strong military control over the state will reduce the policy influence of civilian politicians. Despite the political turn, US-Thailand security cooperation will continue, as will the deepening of China-Thailand economic partnership.

Thai military will stymie post-poll democracy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Military's role in Thai politics. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) last week issued an order, based on Section 44 of the 2014 interim constitution, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to make changes to districts for the upcoming general election. The poll is currently targeted for February-May 2019. The recently formed Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP) will likely be a vehicle for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to retain the premiership in a post-election civilian government. Impacts If a ban on political activity is lifted in mid-December, the election is very likely to take place in February-May 2019 as now pledged. The royal coronation will likely occur in late 2019 if the election is in February but could be in early 2019 if the poll is in May. The junta could use a new cybersecurity law, likely to be passed before the election, to target opponents and critics.

Myanmar business reforms face military obstacles

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Development ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
National League ◽  
The Military

Subject Military business interests and economic reform in Myanmar. Significance The National League for Democracy (NLD) wants to enable greater competition in Myanmar's business environment. Foreign attention is focused on the prospects for private sector development, privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the role 'crony-owned' conglomerates will play. However, military-owned businesses also need to be factored in -- both in regards as to whether they are 'crowding out' the private sector and whether the military itself will constrain business sector reform. Impacts The military's economic interests do not cover all sectors; earlier reform may be possible in non-military areas. A political tussle is likely over NLD plans to rebalance public spending. According to its manifesto, the NLD will broaden Myanmar's tax base while lowering taxes.

Myanmar election fears could mar post-poll politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
Union Election ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Independent Candidates

Subject Myanmar election administration concerns. Significance Myanmar's political parties and independent candidates are campaigning for November 8 elections, after the formal campaign began on September 8. In total, 6,065 candidates successfully applied to the Union Election Commission (UEC) for permission to contest 1,171 seats open at the national, regional and state levels, excluding the military's 25% reservation of all legislative seats. However, there are growing concerns over the election's conduct and the implications for post-poll politics. Impacts If ethnic minorities feel marginalised electorally, this could hinder reaching ceasefires with Shan-based ethnic armed groups. Development of an independent, effective electoral apparatus will occur incrementally. Challenges of constituency results after the election are probable.

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