Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

Thai military will stymie post-poll democracy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Military's role in Thai politics. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) last week issued an order, based on Section 44 of the 2014 interim constitution, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to make changes to districts for the upcoming general election. The poll is currently targeted for February-May 2019. The recently formed Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP) will likely be a vehicle for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to retain the premiership in a post-election civilian government. Impacts If a ban on political activity is lifted in mid-December, the election is very likely to take place in February-May 2019 as now pledged. The royal coronation will likely occur in late 2019 if the election is in February but could be in early 2019 if the poll is in May. The junta could use a new cybersecurity law, likely to be passed before the election, to target opponents and critics.

Referendum embeds semi-authoritarian rule in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Although official results are due on August 10, the Election Commission has announced that, after a count of 94% of votes, both questions posed in the referendum -- on the draft constitution and on the role of the appointed Senate in selecting the prime minister -- have won approval by 61% and 58% respectively. This is a major political victory for the military's National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Impacts The military, the palace and all major political parties favour an open economy. This will secure investor interest in Thailand. Strong military control over the state will reduce the policy influence of civilian politicians. Despite the political turn, US-Thailand security cooperation will continue, as will the deepening of China-Thailand economic partnership.

Thailand’s junta will deepen ties with king

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
National Council ◽  
Transfer System ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Relations between Thailand's military and monarchy. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) earlier this month dismissed speculation that the long-awaited general election would be delayed beyond February next year. In June, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha hinted that King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s coronation must take place before the poll. Since his enthronement in December 2016, King Vajiralongkorn has focused on strengthening his control over royal institutions. Impacts The king’s direct control of the palace’s shares in Siam Commercial Bank and Siam Cement Group will not affect corporate governance. Lese-majeste cases will continue even if the palace attempts to reduce enforcement. Prayut’s use of the promotion and transfer system will continue to limit factional tensions within the military. Any future removal of the military-imposed ban on political activities will be met with an increased security presence.

Thailand’s poll will be delayed beyond February 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Latest on Thailand's long-awaited elections. Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha recently suggested the general election would be held only after the coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, after earlier saying it would occur by February 2019 at the latest. The ban imposed by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on political activities remains in place, but the Constitutional Court has cleared the organic laws governing political parties and MPs. The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) faces the prospect of losing members to the new pro-military Phalang Pracharat party. Impacts Pressures surrounding the poll will not affect the government’s spending plans. Prayut will likely engage in negotiations with veteran politicians and provincial clans to canvass support ahead of the elections. Despite improvement in EU-Thailand ties, full normalisation will only happen under a civilian government.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Pre-poll loss may hurt Thailand’s key anti-junta party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Constitutional Court earlier this month banned the Thai Raksa Chart Party, an offshoot of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party. A 500-member House of Representatives, based on mixed-member proportional representation, and a 250-member Senate, hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order, will together decide on the next prime minister. Impacts The military will exercise considerable influence over post-election policymaking through the Senate. Foreign direct investment may increase following the installation of a civilian administration. Relations with the West, especially the EU, are likely to improve under a civilian government.

Spread of Modi’s BJP may play on civil violence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Expansion of India's ruling party across the country. Significance Victories for candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent elections for the president and the vice-president of India signal the consolidation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authority. Modi and party President Amit Shah aim not only to win the general election in 2019 but also to control as many states as possible and make the BJP the ‘party of the nation’. Impacts India’s Election Commission may have to investigate increasing claims of electoral impropriety. If Modi is re-elected, the BJP may attain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) in his second term. Shah's popularity will rise, though he is unlikely to want to succeed Modi in the long term.

Thailand’s Prayut will face pushback over order

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
Negative Report ◽  
The Military

Subject Opposition reaction to the Thai junta's order on political parties. Significance Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on December 22 used emergency powers to change the recently passed Political Parties Act, leaving parties with a one-month period in April 2018 to re-register members. Nipit Intarasombat, deputy leader of the royalist Democrat Party, on December 25 said his party could lose 2 million members due to the limited timeframe. The Act and Prayut’s order are galvanising opposition to the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). Impacts Cooperation between the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) and Democrats will not endure beyond their opposition to Prayut’s order. The possible creation of a pro-military party in March could result in a number of defections from PTP and Democrat leaders. A extended stand-off between the ruling junta and the Democrats will not affect the military’s legitimacy. Though unlikely, a negative report on Prawit by the NACC may force Prayut to remove a strong ally from the cabinet. Pressures surrounding the election and corruption will not affect recent improvements in economic growth.

Fiji's incumbent will retain firm control after polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
General Election ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Military

Subject The outlook for Fiji ahead of a general election later this year. Significance Fiji's 2018 election (date yet to be announced) is the second since its last military coup in 2006. At the last polls, in 2014, military commander-turned-civilian prime minister Frank Bainimarama won an absolute majority, obtaining 32 of the 50 seats. This time, he will face a new opposition leader, Sitiveni Rabuka, who is also a former army chief, former prime minister and leader of an earlier coup. Despite the transition to democracy, Bainimarama's government has retained its authoritarian proclivities. Impacts Violent unrest is unlikely; Bainimarama's hold over the military is strong and the authorities would quickly quell any uprising. Australia has accepted Bainimarama's semi-authoritarian regime reluctantly, but now sees it as offering stability. Businesses support continuity in government, but are frustrated by frequent regulatory changes and some hostility to foreign-owned firms. The sugar industry's protracted decline will continue, accentuated by Brexit (the UK is a crucial market) and the end of subsidies.

Thai junta extends rule to 2017 as policy risks rise

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Council ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Machine ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Military

Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has already postponed elections three times, from 2015 to early 2016 and, most recently, to late 2016, with a new administration to be inaugurated in early 2017. A potential further delay would signal the junta's weakness in the face of mounting policy challenges. Impacts Suthep's reappearance could jeopardise the political stability the junta has maintained since May 2014. The NCPO will continue to suppress the political machine of deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Government forecast of 3% growth this year may prove optimistic. Post-elections, China and the West are likely to be given at least equal diplomatic attention.

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