Sexual violence intensifies Middle East extremism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Sexual Violence ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sexual Torture ◽  
Politically Motivated Violence ◽  
State Group ◽  
National Reconciliation

Subject Sexual violence in Middle East conflicts. Significance The campaign of rape and sexual enslavement carried out by Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq and Syria has horrified the international community. Yet ISG is not the only group in the Middle East to adopt rape as a weapon of war. The various civil wars and insurgencies engulfing the Arab world have yielded an epidemic of sexual violence. Both rebel and state factions have used rape and sexual torture against their perceived opponents. Victims include children and men as well as women. Politically-motivated violence intermingles with criminal activities like human trafficking and forced prostitution. This complicates efforts to halt sexual violence. Impacts Sexual violence intensifies the animosity between government and opposition. It also deepens the ethno-sectarian cleavages, making national reconciliation more difficult. Military intervention risks accelerating population displacement and increasing vulnerabilities to sexual violence.

ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Security Crises

Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.

Saudi intervention opens door to Iran in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Agenda ◽  
Arab Middle East

Subject Iran's role in Yemen. Significance Yemeni and US officials have long claimed that Iran backs the northern Huthi movement, which follows the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam. Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his Gulf allies fear that Iran is helping the group to overthrow Hadi's government as part of an attempt to establish an arc of Iranian interference in the Arab Middle East, from Lebanon and Syria to the Gulf. However, the Huthis deny any such ties with Tehran, and, until now, Yemen has remained low down on Tehran's regional agenda. Impacts Iran will use the Saudi intervention as an opportunity to build its networks inside Yemen in order to gain more leverage in the Gulf. More tangible Iranian interference in Yemen is likely to stoke further sectarian tensions in the region. Rising sectarianism within Yemen would enable al-Qaida and Islamic State group to gain greater traction in the country. Iran will refrain from military intervention so long as the nuclear negotiations continue. Tehran will lobby diplomatically to boost Shia rights and Huthi representation in any future government.

Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter. Significance With average oil prices in 2015 likely to be 30-40% lower than in 2014, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will see a huge change in their financial performance. Oil exporters could face major falls in fiscal revenue and foreign exchange earnings, while oil importers will receive a welcome boost to their budgetary and external accounts. On the security front, regional governments will focus on the threat from an expanding Islamic State group (ISG), and the fallout from a possible nuclear deal between the P5+1 world powers and Iran.

Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Third ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter. Significance International negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are set to culminate in an agreement early in the quarter, reshaping the regional geopolitical map. Meanwhile the new leadership in Saudi Arabia will be tested on multiple fronts, including Yemen, the expanding influence of Islamic State group (ISG), and adjusting its economic policies to a new era of lower oil prices. Libya is looking for agreement on a national unity government.

Arab youth opinion points to instability, reform risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Youth Population ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Arab youth opinion. Significance Arab youth views Islamic State group (ISG), terrorism and unemployment as the top obstacles facing the Middle East today, according to a new survey released on April 12 by a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based PR firm, ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller. With the failure of regional governments to meet the aspirations of the region's large youth population contributing to the 2011 uprisings, the attitudes of today's youth expressed in the survey will shape the outlook for stabilisation, security and economic reform. Impacts Reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran will be a fundamental first step to the region's stabilisation. Concerns about unemployment and falling living standards will drive social unrest and recruitment to militant organisations. Strong anti-US opinion will complicate Washington's engagement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Scope of Turkey's Syrian incursion will be limited

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab States ◽  
State Group

Subject Turkey's limited options in Syria. Significance Although it ostensibly targeted Islamic State group (ISG), Turkey's military incursion into northern Syria primarily aimed at preventing the Democratic Union Party (PYD) from extending its territory. Ankara's decision to launch the incursion was partly driven by domestic considerations, but has further strained Ankara's already very tense relationship with Washington, caused alarm in Russia, Iran and the Middle East, and further complicated international efforts to combat ISG. Impacts Turkish-backed forces' unprovoked attacks on the PYD have infuriated Washington, and will deepen the crisis in bilateral ties. Turkish troops' presence in a former Ottoman province will exacerbate Sunni Arab states' concerns about Ankara's neo-Ottoman ambitions. Syrian Kurdish distrust of Ankara has worsened and may lead to intensified PKK violence inside Turkey.

Islamic State group has reinvigorated global jihadism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.

Russia will watch returning jihadists closely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian Soil ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group threat to Russia. Significance Russia is using arrests and violence to curb the growth of the Islamic State group (ISG), which has expanded in the North Caucasus at the expense of established domestic jihadist groups such as the Caucasus Emirate. The outflow of militants to the Middle East has contributed to relative calm in the North Caucasus, but as combatants return, some may be intent on violence. Russia's stated intention of defeating ISG on the ground in Syria could encourage reprisal attacks on Russian soil. Impacts Putin will cite domestic terrorist threats as justification for clampdowns on civil rights. The focus on security will be used to control dissent among the Crimean Tatars, who are unhappy with their new status as Russian citizens. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov will be even more indispensable as Moscow's most powerful ally in the North Caucasus.

Middle East jihadist states will struggle to survive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Service Provision ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Territorial Strategies ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Subject Jihadist groups' territorial strategies. Significance Islamic State group (ISG) is just one of a number of jihadist entities using the security vacuum in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond to seek territorial control and establish government according to a purist understanding of Islam. Other groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Boko Haram are seeking similar goals in Syria, Yemen and Nigeria, respectively. Impacts The risk of ethnic and sectarian cleansing will increase. International efforts to strengthen central governments and their militaries will rise. Loss of territory in Iraq and Syria will reduce ISG's appeal to foreign fighters. Resource constraints mean public service provision in jihadist-run areas will be poor.

Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily. Impacts Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation. Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria. Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East. ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience. Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.

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