Prospects for India in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Bright Spot ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India in the fourth quarter. Significance Flustered by a stock market collapse and continuing currency depreciation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will enter the fourth quarter with some trepidation. Like all emerging markets, India faces economic uncertainty, with growth slowing and foreign capital exiting. Little relief is forthcoming on the political and policy fronts for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The only bright spot may be diplomatic outreach.

E-commerce set to transform India's retailers

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Online Retail ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Small Traders

Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.

Prospects for India to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Diplomacy ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for India to end-2016. Significance Policymakers are counting on improved agrarian performance, cheaper credit and economic diplomacy to drive growth in coming months. On the political front, after a modest triumph in the last round of regional elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are emboldened but still politically encumbered.

Caste unrest will help Modi's party retain Dalit vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Caste Politics

Subject Caste politics in India. Significance In a sign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to shape the political agenda, the National Democratic Alliance's candidate Ram Nath Kovind was sworn in as India's 14th president on July 25. With attacks on Dalits (low castes) in the north Indian heartlands of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surging, the nomination of a Dalit for the presidency was designed to strengthen the party's appeal to the community ahead of state elections. Impacts Support for the main opposition Congress party among Dalits will decline in Gujarat. Beef and leather exports will fall despite the Supreme Court suspending the ban on trading cattle for slaughter. Anti-Muslim violence may increase across the country.

Indian middle-class support for Modi may prove fickle

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Middle Classes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Political Responses

Significance Proponents of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic agenda await the political responses of India's urban middle classes. It was above all the urban middle-class vote at the 2014 general elections that took Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA), to its sweeping victory. Impacts BJP could become isolated by relying too much on the middle-class vote. Its lack of interest in rural voters is reflected in its neglect of agrarian strife. Middle-class voters seek quality employment, which Modi's economic policy is failing to generate.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Thai royal wealth draws spotlight as transition nears

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Central Point ◽  
Land Market ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Royal Patronage ◽  
Personal Wealth ◽  
Economic Influence ◽  
Financial Portfolio

Subject Outlook for the Crown Property Bureau. Significance The Crown Property Bureau (CPB), which manages the financial portfolio of the monarchy as well as the king's personal wealth, holds estimated assets equivalent to 10-15% of Thai GDP. As the health of King Bhumipol Adulyadej continues to deteriorate and the nation prepares for a royal transition, the CPB could become a central point of controversy, particularly in the political camp of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his populist 'red shirt' followers. Impacts The land market will remain particularly skewed as long as the CPB exists. The CPB will attract greater scrutiny as debates about inequality gain more political traction. Moreover, further economic liberalisation will gradually reduce the economic influence of royal patronage.

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