Economic woes could raise tensions between the Sudans

Subject Economic outlook for Sudan and South Sudan. Significance Earlier this month, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir ordered the border with South Sudan to be reopened. It was formally closed in 2011, though enforcement has eased since 2012 due to deepening economic cooperation, formalised in several agreements stipulating the financial terms for exporting South Sudanese oil through Sudan's pipelines to Port Sudan. Impacts Russian opposition will probably scupper other UN Security Council proposals to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan. Growing -- albeit small -- numbers of Syrian refugees will likely settle in Khartoum, facilitated by their visa-free access to Sudan. Uganda and South Sudan will proceed on finalising demarcation of their common, disputed border, but localised tensions could persist.

Author(s):  
Rita M. Lopidia ◽  
Lucy Hall

This chapter offers a personal reflection of Rita M. Lopidia’s journey into activism on matters related to Women, Peace and Security (WPS) in South Sudan. In this chapter, Rita discusses her first-hand experience of feminist advocacy in relation to WPS in South Sudan and transnationally. Rita is the co-founder of EVE organisation, which under Rita’s leadership has played a critical role in monitoring the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325 in South Sudan. This chapter focuses on the work involved in monitoring the implementation of UNSCR 1325, and the opportunities and obstacles activists face. Rita describes her personal experience of advocacy in the region and at the UN Security Council level. To conclude, Rita explains the local context and the future of the women’s movement in South Sudan, with reference to the intersections between WPS with UNSCR 2250 on Youth, Peace and Security. Rita’s tireless advocacy and work addressing gendered violence, justice, peace and security is an awe-inspiring example of the connectedness between the normative gains of WPS and the on the ground realities of ensuring women’s voices are heard at the negotiating table.


Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.


Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.


Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.


Subject Uganda's regional policy. Significance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on September 16 attended a series of meetings in Khartoum with incoming South Sudanese First Vice-President Riek Machar. Machar's spokesperson said that the main outcome was Uganda's assurance that it will withdraw its military (UPDF) from South Sudan as per the recent South Sudan peace agreement. The development reflects a wider context in which Uganda's regional clout is under strain. Impacts Military intervention in Somalia will exacerbate that country's spillover effects for insecurity in the wider region. The UPDF's role in AMISOM heightens Uganda's vulnerability to al-Shabaab attacks. However, Uganda will manage these better than Kenya, partly due to its long-term character as a security state.


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