Doha disagreement delineates Saudi-Iranian rivalry

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industrial Action ◽  
Long Run

Significance Many producers, facing budgetary pressures because of low oil prices, support output restraint, but they need to act in concert. Russia and Saudi Arabia have offered a freeze rather than cuts, and Riyadh is not prepared to adopt any stance that provides a comparative advantage to regional rival Iran. Impacts Prices could rise somewhat in the short term due to the drop in Kuwaiti production caused by industrial action. Another factor pushing up oil prices could be any further upward revision to the expected contraction in US crude output. Downside risks dominate in the long run, owing to producers' inaction, record inventories and the return of interrupted supplies.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

What influences bank lending in Saudi Arabia?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-155
Author(s):  
Ken Miyajima
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

PurposeDeterminants of credit growth in Saudi Arabia are investigated.Design/methodology/approachA panel approach is applied to macroeconomic and bank-level data spanning 2000 ‐15.FindingsBank lending is supported by strong bank balance sheet conditions (high capital ratio, and growth of NPL provisioning and deposits), and higher growth of both oil prices and non-oil private sector GDP. Lower bank concentration also helps, likely through greater competition, so does stronger institution. Consistent with the literature, lending by Islamic banks may be more responsive to economic activity. Lending remained robust in 2015 despite oil prices having declined, helped by strong bank balance sheets and as banks reduced their holdings of “excess liquidity”. To support bank lending in the period ahead, bank balance sheets need to remain strong. Fiscal adjustment and a reduced reliance on banks to finance the budget deficit would support credit provision to the private sector.Originality/valueThe paper is first to analyze in detail determinants of bank lending in Saudi Arabia applying a panel approach to bank level data, and draws critical policy implications.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions will increase instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arab State ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Verbal Exchanges

Significance This followed a marked intensification of hostile verbal exchanges between Iranian and Saudi officials and religious leaders in the weeks leading up to the annual pilgrimage to sacred Islamic sites in Saudi Arabia in mid-September. The two countries' mutual hostility prevented Iranian citizens from taking part in the hajj. Iran's developing ties with both Russia and Turkey are also raising mutual tension with Saudi Arabia. Impacts Tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia will hinder future efforts by oil producers to agree a strategy leading to a rise in global prices. Mutual hostility between Tehran and Riyadh will be a major factor behind the failure of international efforts to end the war in Yemen. Medium-term low oil prices may threaten Saudi Arabia's ability to provide further financial bail-outs to Egypt, a key Sunni Arab state.

Epidemic may shake Chad's government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mission Operation

Subject COVID-19 impact on Chad. Significance Chad has a relatively low number of confirmed COVID-19 cases but appears quite vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic, especially the economic impact. The country’s highly rural and youthful demography may help to slow the spread and keep the death rate low. Yet low oil prices, a return to recession and a new wave of sector-specific protests could pose major challenges for the government. Impacts Chad's epidemic appears unlikely to affect France’s Sahel counterterrorism mission Operation Barkhane, headquartered in Chad. A bottom-up revolution appears unlikely, and no major rebel challengers appear poised to take advantage of COVID-19 and associated crises. President Idriss Deby's government appears unlikely to fall in the short term -- French backing will continue to ensure his survival.

The impact of Iran Central Bank’s sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Mostafa Karimzadeh ◽  
Navid Paydarmanesh
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose US sanctions have been a major feature of US Iran policy since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, but the imposition of UN and worldwide bilateral sanctions on Iran that began in 2006 and increased dramatically as of 2010 is recent by comparison. The objectives of US sanctions have evolved over time. Broad international sanctions imposed on Iran harmed Iran’s economy and contributed to Iran’s acceptance of agreements that exchange constraints on its nuclear program for sanctions relief. The subject of this study is important because both Iran and the international communities are demanding for information about the effect of sanctions on Iran. In an international and regional perspective, it seems that sanctions have a negative impact on economic, social and even political status of Iran. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the impact of Iran Central Bank sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange as on December 31, 2011. Design/methodology/approach Variables of model are consisted by exchange rate, oil prices and Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) from October 2, 2011 to March 29, 2012, which is offered daily. To analyze the model, the authors used Johansen–Juselius and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. Findings The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between selected variables as oil prices, and exchange rates have a positive effect on the TEPIX. In other words, the results of the econometric estimation show the positive effect of the Iran Central Bank sanction on the TEPIX. Thus, because of economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries, Tehran Stock Exchange has been growing. Originality/value No empirical research exists that examines the impact of sanctions on stock price in developing countries. This study fills this gap by examining the links between sanctions and stock price in Iran.

scholarly journals Growth and business cycle in Argentina. A long-run approach, 1870–2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (84) ◽  
pp. 197-220
Author(s):  
María Dolores Gadea ◽  
Isabel Sanz-Villarroya
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Moment

Purpose The purpose of this study is to focus deeply on the short term to explain the relative long-term evolution of the Argentinian economy in the long and the short term. Design/methodology/approach The study of the long-term evolution of the Argentine economy and identifying the moment in which it began to lose ground compared to other developed economies, such as Australia and Canada, constitutes the central axis of the historiography of this country. However, an additional problem presented by the Argentine economy is its high volatility. For this reason, the long term should be influenced by the short term, an issue that requires a more detailed study of the cyclical behavior and a deep analysis of the relationship between the long and the short term. Findings The results obtained point to a cyclical development that influences the long-term evolution and, therefore, explains Argentina’s convergence process with Australia and Canada. Frequent deep busts and short booms characterize the Argentine cycle, offsetting its long-term growth potential. Originality/value Although the long term has been profusely studied in Argentina, the short term has not been analyzed to the same extent, which is surprising given the extreme volatility of this economy (Prebisch, 1950). The studies performed on economic cycles have always been partial, disconnected from the long term and carried out without much technical rigor.

scholarly journals Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (63) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amr Hosny
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

Foreign holdings of domestic debt instruments in Nigeria have been increasing. Using data over 2007M1-2019M1, we show that, on average, global factors (global interest rates, oil prices) seem to carry more weight than domestic factors (treasury bills rate and domestic risk) in foreign portfolio invetsors’ decisions in Nigeria. Specifically, we show that foreign participation is, in the long run, positively correlated with oil prices and profitable rates of return on local-currency instruments, but negatively correlated with exchange rate depreciation pressures. In the short run, oil prices, opportunity cost of funds and perception of Nigeria-specific risks also play a role. These results highlight the volatile short-term nature of such flows and call for a package of policy reforms to attract longer term direct investments.

Mexico's auto industry enjoys strong momentum

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
The Other ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Competitive Edge ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Negative Shock

Significance Further investments are to follow. Ford is expected to announce on April 17 that it will invest 2.5 billion dollars to build engines and transmissions, with about half the amount invested in northern Chihuahua, the other half in Guanajuato. Impacts Booming auto production and exports should partly compensate for the negative shock from falling oil prices. Recent economic reforms should also enhance competitiveness, notably as natural gas and electricity prices fall towards world levels. Labour costs have not risen significantly in recent years, but greater wage demands by automotive unions cannot be discarded. Recent peso depreciation should add at least a short-term boost to Mexico's competitive edge in dollars.

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