Trump targets South-east Asia-US policy continuity

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Emerging US policy towards South-east Asia under the Trump administration. Significance On May 5, the 30th US-ASEAN Dialogue opens in Washington, to be co-chaired by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. This follows Vice-President Mike Pence’s visit to Indonesia of April 20-22, the first to South-east Asia by a cabinet-level official from the Trump administration. The White House used that occasion to announce that President Donald Trump will attend the APEC meeting in Vietnam and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in the Philippines in November. Impacts Trump may co-chair a US-ASEAN Summit with Philippines president on the EAS’s margins, which could improve frayed bilateral ties. Congress could frustrate any Trump administration plans to sanction countries with trade surpluses with the United States. An ASEAN-US free trade agreement is unlikely soon. Trump has invited Vietnam’s prime minister to visit Washington later, which could make Hanoi more bullish towards China.

AIIB shows increased US-China institutional rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Regional Institutions ◽  
Institutional Competition

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.

Thailand deepens China links as hedge against US ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
High Speed ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Strategic Imperative ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.

South-east Asia coastguard growth could see friction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Territorial Claims

Subject Development of South-east Asian coastguards and their geopolitical implications. Significance Senior coastguard officers from Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will meet later this year to discuss cooperation and capacity-building -- and the assertive actions of China's coastguard in littoral waters. With external partners' support, South-east Asian states are developing their coastguards to fight crime and assert maritime territorial claims. Impacts Fishing activities will probably trigger spats between South-east Asian and China's coastguards. Gradually, inter-operability between South-east Asian coastguards will expand. Tokyo and Washington will use coastguards to deepen ties with South-east Asian countries. There could be frictions between Indonesia's and Malaysia's coastguards over waters around Ambalat.

Taipei seeks new partners in post-TPP world

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Trade Agreement ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

Subject Taiwan's trade policy. Significance Washington's abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a comprehensive free trade agreement between economies on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, is prompting Taiwan to seek a new direction in trade policy. Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, is seeking to increase trade and investment with partners other than China -- particularly with India and South-east Asia -- and pursue a bilateral trade agreement with the United States. Tsai's Presidential Office has already established a special office to promote trade links with India and South-east Asia. Impacts Taiwan will be subject to intense China-US rivalry, with both seeking to draw the island away from the other. Beijing will put pressure on Taipei to resume cross-Strait economic expansion efforts. Trade with India will expand, but will still be dwarfed by exports to China. Tsai's 'New Southbound Policy' initiative is unlikely to reduce Taiwan’s reliance on the China market significantly.

South-east Asia-US trade preferences debates beckon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.

Maritime funds for South-east Asia boost US ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Maritime Security ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rights Issues

Significance In response to China's activities in the South China Sea, the United States has begun to implement its South-east Asia Maritime Security Initiative (MSI), which seeks to build the maritime capacity of security partners in the region. Impacts Duterte's anti-crime agenda for the Philippines could see some positive knock-on effects for coast guard procurements. Closer defence ties underlined by the MSI will also see greater diplomatic spats between Washington and its allies over human rights issues. A victory by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections would help bolster US credibility as a long-term regional security guarantor.

China visit could be crucial for Philippines’ Duterte

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asean Regional Forum ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance This follows the first ASEAN Summit that Duterte headed as ASEAN’s chair for 2017, where his pro-China foreign policy was evident. Impacts Should the Trump administration take a less active role in ASEAN’s institutions, this will strengthen China’s hand. Maritime spats could be prominent when the Philippines chairs the ASEAN Regional Forum (August) and East Asia Summit (November). Philippine public scepticism over China could see protests as closer bilateral ties are pursued.

Security to trump trade and rights in US-ASEAN ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Regional Leaders ◽  
The Way

Significance Regional leaders had been anxious that Washington under US President Donald Trump seemed relatively uninterested in the region. Tillerson was also preparing the way for Trump’s visit in November to the APEC meeting in Vietnam and East Asia Summit in the Philippines. Impacts If Washington is too bullish towards bellicose Pyongyang, ASEAN governments may become concerned, undermining US-ASEAN ties. ASEAN governments will fear any deterioration in US-China ties that could spark a trade war, with negative regional effects. ASEAN leaders are not yet reassured that Trump’s administration will give equivalent attention to South-east Asia as under his predecessor.

US Jerusalem move could risk South-east Asia security

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
State Solution ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
East Asia Security ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance All but one of the ASEAN governments voted in favour of the resolution; the Philippines abstained. South-east Asian leaders are attempting to walk a difficult line, seeking to maintain good relations with the Trump administration while upholding their longstanding support for a two-state solution regarding Israel and the Palestinians. Impacts Opposition to the US announcement on Jerusalem could see further boycotts of US businesses in South-east Asia. As ASEAN chair, Singapore will discourage a group statement criticising Washington over Jerusalem. The Jerusalem decision will heighten domestic opposition to any trade deals ASEAN governments may seek with Washington.

US-ASEAN summit could become diplomatic debacle

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Las Vegas ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Intention To Participate ◽  
Foreign Ministers

Subject US-ASEAN relations. Significance A US-ASEAN summit, proposed late last year by US President Donald Trump, is tentatively scheduled to be held in March in Las Vegas. After an ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Vietnam earlier this month, the South-east Asian regional bloc issued a statement welcoming the summit. However, only a few member states have formally signalled their intention to participate. Impacts For ASEAN leaders that attend, the summit may compensate for Trump’s likely absence from the 2020 East Asia Summit in Vietnam. The United States is unlikely to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership. Any violence in South-east Asia sponsored by Iran or its proxies will strengthen US cooperation with the region on counterterrorism.

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