Eurogroup deal will do little for Greek GDP growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects

Significance The negotiations with Greece's creditors revealed fundamental disagreements in lenders' views on the sustainability of Greece's debt and failed to address the drivers of future economic growth, once again concentrating almost exclusively on fiscal discipline. In the short term, the deal helps lift economic uncertainty and gains room to manoeuvre. The fact that debt relief measures were put on the table handed a domestic political victory to the ruling Syriza party. Impacts The IMF's drastic reassessment of debt sustainability and downward revision of Greece's growth prospects will deter foreign investors. Additional austerity measures will discourage already weak Greek 'ownership' of the programme, hindering reform progress. Polls suggest Greeks are slowly becoming more sceptical about participation in the euro-area.

Malaysia will struggle to foster economic growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Malaysia's 2019 budget. Significance Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s 314.5-billion-ringgit (75-billion-dollar) budget for 2019, tabled earlier this month, will likely be approved in parliament before year-end. The first budget under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad anticipates a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. Shortly after coming to power this May, Mahathir said he would give way to Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition partner Anwar Ibrahim within two years. Impacts The PH’s fiscal management will bolster confidence among foreign investors and credit ratings agencies. The lack of budget handouts to rural Malay constituencies could weaken political support for the PH in the short term. Government borrowing will likely become more expensive through 2019. The digital economy tax introduced in the budget will come into effect in 2020. Corruption investigations into missing revenues could result in further legal charges against members of the former government.

Greek recovery will support improving property sector

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Commercial Viability ◽  
Real Estate Project ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Real Estate Management

Subject The positive dynamics that are appearing in the property and construction sectors. Significance The commercial viability of buy-to-let transactions has enticed foreign investors and increased opportunities for local real estate management companies. Nascent economic growth in 2018 has also sustained a nationwide recovery in commercial rents and real estate prices. Impacts Credit shortages will preclude middle-class Greeks from participating in the market’s recuperation, dampening short-term market growth. Work starting on the Hellinikon real estate project in early 2019 would provide an important positive market signal for foreign investors. However, persisting economic uncertainty will limit the investor universe to those willing to take higher risk.

COVID-19 crisis will test Ghanaian fiscal discipline

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Account Deficits

Subject Ghanaian economic shocks. Significance GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5% this year, compared with the 5.8% expected before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic -- the lowest level in nearly four decades. Similarly, key macroeconomic metrics such as the fiscal and current account deficits, government revenues and inflation are all set to deteriorate sharply. This could be temporary but the COVID-19 crisis amid an election cycle will heighten spending pressures. Impacts Although progress towards debt sustainability will suffer, Accra will likely avoid a ratings downgrade by keeping interest costs stable. The higher fiscal deficit in 2020 could obscure additional loosening of the fiscal stance ahead of elections in December. The more than seven-fold increase in COVID-19 cases since the lockdown was eased risks damaging improving sentiment towards Ghanaian assets.

Recovery will depend on Greek cooperation with lenders

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Growth Estimate ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constructive Dialogue ◽  
Surveillance Report ◽  
Positive Assessment ◽  
Primary Surplus

Subject Greece’s relationship with its creditors. Significance The first annual GDP growth estimate for 2019 has fallen short of expectations. This is partly counterbalanced by the positive assessment of reform progress given in the European Commission’s fifth Enhanced Surveillance Report. Yet investor trust remains fragile, hinging on the Greek government’s ability to meet economic and financial targets consistently and to maintain a constructive dialogue with its international creditors. Impacts In 2020, investors’ flight to safety could undermine demand for Greek bonds. Cheaper borrowing has improved debt sustainability, supporting government attempts to renegotiate primary surplus targets with creditors. Under-execution of planned public investment could restrict economic growth in 2020.

Foreign retailers respond to Russians' modest spending

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Income ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Retail Sector ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Foreign Brands ◽  
Far Eastern

Subject Foreign brands in the Russian retail sector. Significance Last year fewer foreign retail 'names' entered the Russian market than any year since 2012. Poor GDP growth prospects and diminishing consumer purchasing power continue to deter expansion of foreign retailers. New entrants are often retailers targeting high-end consumers, who are more immune to falling real income, inflation and ruble depreciation. Impacts Economic uncertainty and Western sanctions will discourage further European and US retail expansion. Far Eastern retailers will try to move into the clothing market, mainly sports and urban youthwear. In the medium to long term, the ageing of Russia's population will discourage foreign retailers.

scholarly journals Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. C25-C44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Angelini ◽  
Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez ◽  
Domenico Giannone ◽  
Lucrezia Reichlin ◽  
Gerhard Rünstler
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term

Domestic matters will determine Mexican foreign policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Critical Rhetoric ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Profile ◽  
Latin American And Caribbean

Significance The move follows Mexico’s hosting of a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit last month, and provides an opportunity to expand the country’s international profile. However, AMLO generally disregards foreign policy, except as a tool for advancing domestic interests and building public support. Impacts US relations will continue to dominate foreign policy, despite AMLO’s critical rhetoric about rich nations. In the short term, Mexico will frame its foreign policy around calls for increased access to COVID-19 vaccines. Mexico’s energy policy could become a source of international tension, given its potential implications for foreign investors.

Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Khee Giap ◽  
Nguyen Le Phuong Anh ◽  
Ye Ye Denise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

Purpose Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both Singapore and Malaysia are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that necessitate a course-correction in order to sustain their growth momentum, going forward. In light of the renewed interest in understanding the growth constraints faced by the two countries, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs a novel empirical approach-the Geweke causality analysis-to investigate the causal drivers of economic growth in Singapore and Malaysia. Intuitively, the Geweke causality analysis helps us understand and measure the linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series variables. To that effect, we perform both a bi-variate as well as a multi-variate causality analysis. Findings The empirical results established using Geweke causality analysis suggest that Malaysia's new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector. The results also suggest that Singapore, on the other hand, should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth as the linear dependence between FDI and real GDP growth appears to be weaker compared to the linear dependence between the remaining variables and the real GDP growth. Originality/value While the traditional growth accounting framework provides useful insights at the aggregate level, there is a growing literature that discusses the importance of sectoral analysis to understand structural transformations in the economies which become important to sustain productivity growth in the long-run. This is immensely relevant in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, as well, especially with the changing policy focus in these countries to overcome structural growth issues. In light of this growing discussion on the importance of understanding the growth dynamics at the sectoral level, this paper presents new empirical evidence on the growth drivers in Singapore and Malaysia with a sectoral focus.

Export diversification augurs well for Europe's growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject The diversification and quality of European exports. Significance For all the gloom about Europe's economy, one fact stands out: the continent is a proficient exporter. This is not just true of Germany, the biggest exporter in Europe and the world's third-largest exporter overall. Half of the world's top-ten exporters are European. Impacts Export prowess suggests Europe's long-run growth prospects remain good. This finding is independent of the currency fortunes of individual members or the region. This supports a more bullish view on the euro-area growth prospects than currently foreseen.

EU infrastructure plan could reinforce ECB policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Commission President ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Investment

Subject Outlook for infrastructure spending. Significance European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker proposed a 315 billion euro (340 billion dollar) infrastructure initiative to revive the EU economy, expected to reinforce ongoing monetary policy efforts to boost growth. Fund raising is progressing through the European Investment Bank (EIB). The programme can benefit both short-term and long-term growth prospects, while its actual impact will depend on the projects implemented, as politically motivated choices can delay, distort and depress the benefits. This plan comes late, six years after the global financial crisis; one of its priorities is generating rapid results to boost the economic recovery. Impacts To have a net positive impact, any infrastructure proposal would have to avoid drawing funds away from existing investment plans. The plan could help reducing disparities between labour markets in different euro-area countries. Persistently high euro-area unemployment will need a domestic demand revival to boost sentiment, growth and job creation.

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