Ambitious reform plan will test Saudi government

Subject Saudi National Transformation Program. Significance Saudi Arabia recently launched a five-year development plan, the National Transformation Program (NTP), which sets hundreds of quantified targets and initiatives for ministries. The NTP aims to move the country beyond oil dependence and introduce a culture of transparency and accountability into government. Impacts Other Gulf countries will use the NTP to inform their own reform agendas. Its success or failure will be critical in determining the standing of the deputy crown prince. Implementing the NTP at all levels of government will create a boom in consultancy work. Greater government transparency may build pressure for democratisation.

2019 ◽  
pp. 103-132
Author(s):  
Marina ◽  
David Ottaway

The six Gulf monarchies form a distinct bloc within the Arab world. Saudi Arabia seeks to dominate it and is presently entangled in a struggle for regional hegemony with Iran. The 2011 uprisings failed to overturn any of the monarchies,which all became acutely aware of the threat that these uprisings posed, andthen chose to accelerate reforms in response. Five of the Gulf countries have tiny indigenous populations, most outnumbered by foreign workers. They also haveenormous oil or gas wealth andambitious 2030 visions for development. In addition, the five all face the double challenge of having an expansionist Iran and domineering Saudi Arabia as neighbors. Since independence from Britain in 1971, they have dedicated themselves, several with notable success, to establishing modern states, national identities and a global stature. Meanwhile, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi kingdom is finally undergoing radical social and economic changes in the midst of unprecedented political repression and major resistance to the Saudi bid for regional primacy from both Iran and other increasingly independent-minded Gulf monarchies.In addition, U.S.-Saudi relations, the bedrock of Saudi stability and security, are deteriorating.


Significance The Saudi-led campaign against the Huthi movement in Yemen looks set to continue well into 2016. At the end of 2015 there were signs that the length and scale of the coalition effort had weakened the Huthis, but not yet to a point where the group is ready for serious negotiations. Impacts The war will enable both al-Qaida and Islamic State group (ISG) to expand in Yemen and potentially threaten Saudi Arabia. The conflict will intensify anti-Shia rhetoric in Saudi Arabia, further straining the loyalty of the Saudi Shia minority. Fiscal pressures at home will increase Saudi Arabia's incentive to draw the conflict to a close. Progress in Yemen could boost the succession prospects of the war's key architect, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.


Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.


Significance The crown prince (colloquially known across Western news media as ‘MBS’), this month visited the United States, building relationships, announcing business deals and seeking to soften the image of Saudi Arabia. His seven-city tour included meetings with politicians from both parties, high-tech business leaders and Hollywood stars. Impacts The close association with Washington may play well to MBS’s youth base, but could further antagonise Saudi conservatives. Relationships built on the trip will likely boost US investment in Saudi Arabia, despite concerns about a fickle business environment. The Saudi charm offensive could provoke an adverse US domestic reaction if civilian casualties in Yemen spike and hit the news cycle.


Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Reshuffle will aid the crown prince


Significance The Pakistani armed forces are reportedly already involved in the campaign: some troops have been deployed in Saudi Arabia and a naval ship is stationed off the Yemeni coast. However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government is facing strong public criticism for jumping into this conflict, and has been forced to seek parliamentary support. Parliament's decision will have serious repercussions for Pakistan's Shia-Sunni dynamic and key regional relations. Impacts Sharif's handling of Riyadh will be key to securing future aid, especially for the energy sector. Islamabad will not wish to alienate Tehran over Yemen, even though Yemen is relatively peripheral to Iranian interests. Pakistan's long-standing security ties with Gulf countries will not be fundamentally altered by its decision on Yemen.


Subject South Korea-Gulf ties. Significance As Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seek to reduce their economic dependence on oil, they have been deepening their ties with South Korea. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) view South Korea as a development model because of its swift and successful transition to a knowledge-based economy. For its part, Seoul believes that developing ties with Gulf countries will enhance its energy security and boost trade flows. Impacts Increased renewables capacity will help meet the Gulf's rising domestic energy demand that threatens to erode its capacity to export oil. South Korean technology transfer and expertise should stimulate job creation in downstream industries, and help reduce youth unemployment. Construction of nuclear plants in the Gulf will establish South Korea as a credible exporter of nuclear power technology.


Significance The split between Qatar and its neighbours has pushed a few small African countries to side with Saudi Arabia, but leaves the continent’s leading powers and several conflict-afflicted nations eager to stay neutral -- for now. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) -- where Gulf countries have strong diplomatic ties and major economic investments -- the crisis has had significant political effects. Impacts The withdrawal of Qatari peacekeepers from the Djibouti-Eritrea border will become a pressing concern for the African Union. Ongoing expulsions of African migrants from Saudi Arabia will complicate Saudi and Emirati efforts to find African partners against Qatar. Countries such as South Africa and Nigeria may begin to act more assertively in calling for neutrality.


Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Crown prince will seek to repair image


Significance The trial comes amid an escalating crackdown against domestic opposition forces. The crackdown has been presented as a response to Iranian-backed subversion, but the government also has grounds for concern about popular discontent at worsening economic conditions, particularly among the country's Shia majority. Impacts Unpopular fiscal adjustments alone are unlikely to prompt major civil unrest, but could reinforce the Shia community's sense of exclusion. Hardliners are likely to intensify the crackdown further as economic reforms target allied business interests. The crown prince has a chance to rebuild influence on the back of economic reform, but hardliners will continue to dominate. Bahrain's dependence on Saudi Arabia for financial and security support will increase, although Riyadh faces formidable challenges itself.


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