The royal Saudi visit may change long-term US views

Significance The crown prince (colloquially known across Western news media as ‘MBS’), this month visited the United States, building relationships, announcing business deals and seeking to soften the image of Saudi Arabia. His seven-city tour included meetings with politicians from both parties, high-tech business leaders and Hollywood stars. Impacts The close association with Washington may play well to MBS’s youth base, but could further antagonise Saudi conservatives. Relationships built on the trip will likely boost US investment in Saudi Arabia, despite concerns about a fickle business environment. The Saudi charm offensive could provoke an adverse US domestic reaction if civilian casualties in Yemen spike and hit the news cycle.

Significance The Saudi-led campaign against the Huthi movement in Yemen looks set to continue well into 2016. At the end of 2015 there were signs that the length and scale of the coalition effort had weakened the Huthis, but not yet to a point where the group is ready for serious negotiations. Impacts The war will enable both al-Qaida and Islamic State group (ISG) to expand in Yemen and potentially threaten Saudi Arabia. The conflict will intensify anti-Shia rhetoric in Saudi Arabia, further straining the loyalty of the Saudi Shia minority. Fiscal pressures at home will increase Saudi Arabia's incentive to draw the conflict to a close. Progress in Yemen could boost the succession prospects of the war's key architect, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.


Subject Saudi National Transformation Program. Significance Saudi Arabia recently launched a five-year development plan, the National Transformation Program (NTP), which sets hundreds of quantified targets and initiatives for ministries. The NTP aims to move the country beyond oil dependence and introduce a culture of transparency and accountability into government. Impacts Other Gulf countries will use the NTP to inform their own reform agendas. Its success or failure will be critical in determining the standing of the deputy crown prince. Implementing the NTP at all levels of government will create a boom in consultancy work. Greater government transparency may build pressure for democratisation.


Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.


Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.


Significance Israel sees rising risks from developments in Syria, especially the implementation of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed on May 6 by Russia, Iran and Turkey after talks in Astana. Netanyahu is concerned that these -- especially the southern zone, implemented in cooperation with the United States and Jordan -- will entrench an Iranian military presence in post-war Syria, including in areas close to the Israeli border. Impacts Rising Iranian spending on its ballistic missile programme will exacerbate Israeli concerns. The eighth round of UN-mandated Syrian peace talks in Geneva this month will assume implementation of the de-escalation zones. Shared concerns over Iran will boost Israel’s ties with some Sunni Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s enhanced coordination with Iran will not undermine growing economic and energy ties with Israel.


Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Reshuffle will aid the crown prince


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Linzi J. Kemp ◽  
Imelda Dunlop

Subject area Leadership, international business, financial reporting, entrepreneurship Study level/applicability The case study is aimed at undergraduate students at a 300 level. Case overview Mr Badr Jafar, co-founder of the Pearl Initiative (PI), is the chief protagonist in this case study set in the Gulf Arab states. He launched this company at the United Nations in September 2010, and the launch was timely, as business leaders were looking to rebuild the global economy following the economic downturn. The Initiative was originally the idea of a number of leading company owners in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The company vision is to improve business practices for the benefit of business and society in the future, but the context is one of a highly competitive and secretive business environment. The mission of the PI is to improve private sector corporate culture to one of transparency and accountability. The PI approaches that mission through building a network of business leaders in the GCC, particularly those from the family-owned companies in the private sector. A biography of the founder and the background to the founding of the PI is given, followed by a rationale of the company structure. The potential influence of the network of companies and leaders on the socio-business climate is considered. The specific activities are outlined within the strategy of the PI to address four key business areas: anti-bribery and corruption; corporate governance; corporate reporting; and women in leadership The PI focuses on raising awareness about the potential benefits of social entrepreneurship for business and society. To what extent this relatively new model of business can be successful in the context of the GCC is a case dilemma. Key issues: There are two main issues raised in the case study: the rationale for the relatively new business model of social entrepreneurship and the extent to which PI can modify the past and current GCC business environment by addressing the four business areas. Expected learning outcomes Students will be able to: analyze the business case for social entrepreneurship and explain the contribution of PI activities for changing the business environment. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.


Significance Those freed include senior prince Walid bin Talal and other heads of large companies: it is unclear whether they handed over economic assets in exchange. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s arrests of hundreds of members of the business community, ruling Al Saud family and clerical establishment (three core constituencies) aimed to consolidate his grip on power and authority to force through far-reaching changes in his ‘Vision 2030’ economic plan. Impacts Mohammed bin Salman’s succession to his father is likely to be smooth if it happens soon. The Salman ruling family branch and its allies will take control of economic relations between the state and business community. Some non-royal business leaders will be made an example of and stand trial for corruption. Systemic and bureaucratic mid-level corruption will not be a major focus of the campaign. The Saudi National Guard, controlled by a now-discredited family branch, is unlikely to resist upcoming restructuring.


Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.


Subject Kurdish-Arab tensions in north-east Syria Significance Significant protests between April and June by Arab tribes in north-eastern Syria against Kurdish governance have subsided in north-eastern Syria after Saudi Arabia intervened to encourage de-escalation. However, the underlying causes, including grievances over economic distribution, heavy-handed security methods and a lack of Arab representation in decision-making, have not been resolved. Impacts A deterioration in cooperation between Arab tribes and the SDF may facilitate the operations of IS sleeper cells. The United States and partners will look for further ways to alleviate the concerns of Arab tribes in the area. Ankara and Damascus, which both have designs on the north-east, will play up protests to justify intervention. A mooted Turkish invasion of the border area could radically shift the power dynamic in the region.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document