The Saudi crown prince will seek to repair his image

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Crown prince will seek to repair image

Significance The Saudi-led campaign against the Huthi movement in Yemen looks set to continue well into 2016. At the end of 2015 there were signs that the length and scale of the coalition effort had weakened the Huthis, but not yet to a point where the group is ready for serious negotiations. Impacts The war will enable both al-Qaida and Islamic State group (ISG) to expand in Yemen and potentially threaten Saudi Arabia. The conflict will intensify anti-Shia rhetoric in Saudi Arabia, further straining the loyalty of the Saudi Shia minority. Fiscal pressures at home will increase Saudi Arabia's incentive to draw the conflict to a close. Progress in Yemen could boost the succession prospects of the war's key architect, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.


Subject Saudi National Transformation Program. Significance Saudi Arabia recently launched a five-year development plan, the National Transformation Program (NTP), which sets hundreds of quantified targets and initiatives for ministries. The NTP aims to move the country beyond oil dependence and introduce a culture of transparency and accountability into government. Impacts Other Gulf countries will use the NTP to inform their own reform agendas. Its success or failure will be critical in determining the standing of the deputy crown prince. Implementing the NTP at all levels of government will create a boom in consultancy work. Greater government transparency may build pressure for democratisation.


Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.


Significance The crown prince (colloquially known across Western news media as ‘MBS’), this month visited the United States, building relationships, announcing business deals and seeking to soften the image of Saudi Arabia. His seven-city tour included meetings with politicians from both parties, high-tech business leaders and Hollywood stars. Impacts The close association with Washington may play well to MBS’s youth base, but could further antagonise Saudi conservatives. Relationships built on the trip will likely boost US investment in Saudi Arabia, despite concerns about a fickle business environment. The Saudi charm offensive could provoke an adverse US domestic reaction if civilian casualties in Yemen spike and hit the news cycle.


Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Reshuffle will aid the crown prince


Significance The trial comes amid an escalating crackdown against domestic opposition forces. The crackdown has been presented as a response to Iranian-backed subversion, but the government also has grounds for concern about popular discontent at worsening economic conditions, particularly among the country's Shia majority. Impacts Unpopular fiscal adjustments alone are unlikely to prompt major civil unrest, but could reinforce the Shia community's sense of exclusion. Hardliners are likely to intensify the crackdown further as economic reforms target allied business interests. The crown prince has a chance to rebuild influence on the back of economic reform, but hardliners will continue to dominate. Bahrain's dependence on Saudi Arabia for financial and security support will increase, although Riyadh faces formidable challenges itself.


Subject Saudi policy in the Middle East. Significance King Salman's accession in January 2015 heralded a major change in foreign policy. The decision-making process was streamlined and placed in the hands of princes from the younger generation of royals, the new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. These changes have created an unprecedented dynamism in Saudi leadership and led to direct interventions in regional crises. Impacts Antagonism towards Tehran will deter cooperation on oil price or production initiatives. It will also constrain the potential for Gulf Arab states to do business with post-sanctions Iran. Failure to show victory in Yemen will cloud Mohammed bin Salman's succession chances, and could see his removal after King Salman's death. Saudi state's sectarian, anti-Iranian rhetoric risks increasing popular support for Islamic State group (ISG). Instability could increase in Lebanon as Saudi Arabia draws back its support.


Significance The two countries have in recent years intensified cooperation and deepened bilateral ties, after a slow thaw over two decades. The warmth of the relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the recent G20 summit in Argentina was plain to see. Putin was clearly showing that Russia, unlike many other states, would not allow the killing of Jamal Khashoggi to influence Moscow’s ties with Riyadh. Impacts If Mohammed bin Salman’s path to the throne were to be blocked, Saudi-Russia relations would be damaged. Russian friendship with Saudi Arabia could persuade the kingdom to fund Syria’s reconstruction, even with Assad remaining in power. Growing Russian influence in Saudi Arabia could draw Islamist hostility in the kingdom away from the West. Royal opponents of the crown prince may perceive a danger of him emulating Putin’s aggressive and autocratic leadership style.


Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Reshuffle will benefit the crown prince


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2018. Significance The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) saw dramatic political changes in 2017. Mohammed bin Salman advanced to become Saudi crown prince. The GCC also split in a way not seen since its foundation in 1981, after three members -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain -- launched a boycott of Qatar in June.


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