Turkey involvement will deepen Syria conflict

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The proposed process would start with six months of negotiations aimed at setting up a transitional administration comprised of figures from the opposition, the government and civil society. The talks took place in the shadow of the Turkish incursion into Syria on August 24 and renewed fighting in much of the country. Impacts If the re-established siege of east Aleppo persists for several weeks, rebel forces could be forced to surrender control. Russia could agree with Turkey to confront ISG jointly while dictating the terms of a political agreement, reducing US influence. YPG will focus on defending its borders east of the Euphrates and not engage in further territorial gains against ISG or the FSA.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Modi's regulatory crackdown on NGOs could backfire

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Perceived Ability ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government

Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.

Kazakhstan will silence dissenting voices amid crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
International Image ◽  
International Human ◽  
The Government

Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Odebrecht scandal may hit Dominican government hard

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
Pressure Group ◽  
Government Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Society Organisation ◽  
Construction Firm ◽  
Group A ◽  
The Government

Subject Corruption investigations in the Dominican Republic. Significance On March 26, major protests took place in the Dominican Republic to demand government action against corruption, specifically corruption linked to bribes paid by Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht. The march was organised by Marcha Verde -- a new civil society organisation, created to act as an anti-corruption pressure group. A series of marches in recent months indicates growing popular dissatisfaction with the government’s response to the Odebrecht scandal, which is set to undermine the popularity of President Danilo Medina’s administration. Impacts With elections not due until 2020, Medina may feel he has time to ride out the scandal and regain popular support. The government will nevertheless accelerate investigations in response to the protests and to boost its international anti-corruption image. Anti-money-laundering legislation is being considered by the legislature to strengthen the country’s counter-crime framework.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Tanzanian demands for constitutional reform will grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Review Process ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Unstable Environment ◽  
The Government

Subject Tanzanian constitutional reform Significance Political, religious and civil society leaders are calling for constitutional reform before the 2020 elections. These demands are underpinned by rising fears for the future of Tanzania’s multi-party democracy, which add to existing concerns over the concentration of power in the executive branch. Impacts A new constitution will be an opportunity to enshrine popular resource-nationalist principles behind recent natural resources legislation. The issue of Zanzibar's place in the union will come to the fore, creating an unstable environment for the 2020 elections there. The government will likely ease repression of dissenting voices in order to give a review process credibility.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Zambian government will grow increasingly defensive

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Embattled president. Significance A beleaguered President Edgar Lungu and his ruling Patriotic Front (PF) government is renewing its populist posturing and authoritarian repression as support for the opposition appears to grow. While the government maintains its clampdown on dissent, some within the PF are becoming increasingly frustrated with Lungu -- questioning whether he should be the party’s standard-bearer for the 2021 elections. Impacts Recent corruption allegations against Lungu and his associates will further dent Lusaka's increasingly hollow anti-graft credentials. Washington may face civil society pressure to review some 500 million dollars in US aid and grants given to Lusaka annually. Added to concerns over indebtedness to China, worsening US-Zambia relations could scupper Lusaka's prospects of a new IMF funding deal.

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