Odebrecht scandal may hit Dominican government hard

Subject Corruption investigations in the Dominican Republic. Significance On March 26, major protests took place in the Dominican Republic to demand government action against corruption, specifically corruption linked to bribes paid by Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht. The march was organised by Marcha Verde -- a new civil society organisation, created to act as an anti-corruption pressure group. A series of marches in recent months indicates growing popular dissatisfaction with the government’s response to the Odebrecht scandal, which is set to undermine the popularity of President Danilo Medina’s administration. Impacts With elections not due until 2020, Medina may feel he has time to ride out the scandal and regain popular support. The government will nevertheless accelerate investigations in response to the protests and to boost its international anti-corruption image. Anti-money-laundering legislation is being considered by the legislature to strengthen the country’s counter-crime framework.

Subject Tanzania's controversial hydroelectric project at Stiegler's Gorge. Significance President John Magufuli is championing the construction of a new mega-dam: the Stiegler’s Gorge Project. In October, Arab Contractors, an Egyptian construction firm with little hydropower experience, was announced as the dam’s builder, and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi was invited to lay the foundation stone. However, the project is also deeply controversial as Stiegler’s Gorge lies in the biodiverse heartland of the UNESCO World Heritage Selous Game Reserve. Impacts The dam is likely to face significant continued opposition from governments, academics and civil society groups. The government may choose to use the power for industrial purposes rather than to electrify the country and increase access for citizens. Tanzania’s lack of experience in delivering infrastructure projects on this scale and its history of corruption will elevate concerns.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariola Jolanta Marzouk

Purpose This paper aims to provide unique empirical findings exploring the impact of the UK’s post-Brexit Economic Strategy to boost trade with developing countries on the UK banking sector’s ability to manage trade-based money laundering risks. Design/methodology/approach Exploratory research design that used structured literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with key subject matter experts employed by large UK banks. Findings Both banks and law enforcement struggle to prioritise trade-based money laundering (TBML) intelligence discovery due to deficient skills, resources, technology and lack of strong regulatory stimulus. The regulated sector calls for the UK anti-money laundering (AML) reform that would better incentivise TBML deterrence, yet the Government underestimates the money laundering risks while trading with high-risk jurisdictions post-Brexit. Research limitations/implications The findings are based on a small sample of six semi-structured interviews with difficult to access population of key subject matter experts. Despite the small sample, participants provided well-articulated and informed insights. Practical implications The UK’s post-Brexit Economic Strategy to boost trade with developing countries downplays the TBML risks it carries. The findings should alert UK banks, law enforcement and the Government who will collectively bear the responsibility to effectively manage TBML while enabling smooth trading. Originality/value The research provides unique perceptions of UK banks’ senior subject matter experts on managing TBML threats from opportunistic criminals.


Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.


Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 793-804
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmad Naheem

Purpose The recent diplomatic split between members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Qatar with accusations of terrorist financing (TF). This paper aims to study Qatar’s domestic legislations, which specifically targets money laundering and TF activities. The country has stringently worked in compliance with international standards on combating financing of terrorism (CFT) and anti-money laundering (AML) practices by imparting autonomous power to regulatory bodies, such as the Qatar Central Bank and other agencies. Design/methodology/approach This paper studies independent legislations passed under the Emir’s decree over the past decade advancing Qatar’s AML ranking, with significant effort in CFT regulations. The paper also analyses the advancement in AML/CFT regulation and their validity with respect to international standards set by various governmental, intergovernmental and non-profit agencies. Findings The analysis finds Qatar in compliance with strong AML/CFT regulations. Further, it finds the government to have provided transparent oversight to international organizations that attest to the findings of the legislative efforts. This paper disproves claims and accusations that have possibly been presented to the GCC and subsequently led members to abruptly end diplomatic relations with Qatar over allegations of TF activities, amongst others. Originality/value The paper offers insight into Qatar’s legislative and regulatory advancement with respect to the AML/CTF in the past decade. The paper also discusses Qatar’s legislative advancement in relation to the evolutions of the country’s financial system, adopting a more robust mechanism to combat financing of terrorism and ML.


Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.


Significance The proposed process would start with six months of negotiations aimed at setting up a transitional administration comprised of figures from the opposition, the government and civil society. The talks took place in the shadow of the Turkish incursion into Syria on August 24 and renewed fighting in much of the country. Impacts If the re-established siege of east Aleppo persists for several weeks, rebel forces could be forced to surrender control. Russia could agree with Turkey to confront ISG jointly while dictating the terms of a political agreement, reducing US influence. YPG will focus on defending its borders east of the Euphrates and not engage in further territorial gains against ISG or the FSA.


Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.


Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.


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