Chile's economic prospects will not recover rapidly

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Capacity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crucial Test ◽  
Future Growth

Significance The forecasts reflect the impact of currently low investment on the economy's future growth capacity. Ahead of the government's presentation of its 2017 budget to Congress at end-September, the independent Central Bank also warned that there is little room for sustainable fiscal stimulus. Impacts Next year would be Chile's fourth year of growth of only around 2% -- a trend which, according to private forecasts, may persist in 2018. Business criticism of the government's reforms is, in practice, helping to "talk down" the economy. The 2017 budget will be a crucial test of the government's commitment to fiscal sustainability.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

The impact of Iran Central Bank’s sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Mostafa Karimzadeh ◽  
Navid Paydarmanesh
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose US sanctions have been a major feature of US Iran policy since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, but the imposition of UN and worldwide bilateral sanctions on Iran that began in 2006 and increased dramatically as of 2010 is recent by comparison. The objectives of US sanctions have evolved over time. Broad international sanctions imposed on Iran harmed Iran’s economy and contributed to Iran’s acceptance of agreements that exchange constraints on its nuclear program for sanctions relief. The subject of this study is important because both Iran and the international communities are demanding for information about the effect of sanctions on Iran. In an international and regional perspective, it seems that sanctions have a negative impact on economic, social and even political status of Iran. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the impact of Iran Central Bank sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange as on December 31, 2011. Design/methodology/approach Variables of model are consisted by exchange rate, oil prices and Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) from October 2, 2011 to March 29, 2012, which is offered daily. To analyze the model, the authors used Johansen–Juselius and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. Findings The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between selected variables as oil prices, and exchange rates have a positive effect on the TEPIX. In other words, the results of the econometric estimation show the positive effect of the Iran Central Bank sanction on the TEPIX. Thus, because of economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries, Tehran Stock Exchange has been growing. Originality/value No empirical research exists that examines the impact of sanctions on stock price in developing countries. This study fills this gap by examining the links between sanctions and stock price in Iran.

Greek GDP growth in 2022 will rely on EU recovery aid

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Side ◽  
Digital Services ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Future Growth

Significance The economic rebound from a 9% contraction in 2020 is mainly being driven by strong domestic demand supported by accommodative fiscal policies and higher-than-expected tourism revenues. However, the deteriorating epidemiological situation in Greece, and new COVID-19 variants expanding into Europe -- possibly resistant to vaccines -- pose risks to future growth prospects. Impacts Persistent supply-chain disruptions will slow down expansion in industrial output in 2022. Winding down the fiscal stimulus will narrow the primary budget deficit from 7.6% of GDP in 2021 to an estimated 1.2% in 2022. The primary budget deficit will widen in 2022-23 thanks to front-loading defence spending. Greater penetration of digital services is a positive side-effect of the pandemic. A deceleration in bank credit issuance could restrict corporate investment in 2022.

scholarly journals The accounting, budgeting and fiscal impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 785-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Heald ◽  
Ron Hodges
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Accounting Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper analyses the nature and impact of budgetary responses to the pandemic in the context of the strengths and weaknesses of UK public sector financial management.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is developed through consideration of four modes of government accounting. Data are drawn from multiple official sources, which report actual and forecast government receipts and expenditures as the crisis unfolds.FindingsThere have been dramatic effects on UK government finances. Government receipts have fallen by 12% and expenditures have increased by 36% in the first three months of the crisis (April–June 2020), compared to the previous year. Government debt increased to £1,984bn (99.6% of GDP), the highest percentage since March 1961 (ONS, 2020c). The pandemic will have the greatest impact on UK public finances in 2020–21, with a record budget deficit which, under the OBR (2020c) central scenario, may approach £322bn and increase public sector net debt to £2,205bn (104.1% of GDP).Research limitations/implicationsThe research is necessarily limited by the impact of the pandemic and the government's responses in a rapidly changing social, economic and fiscal environment.Practical implicationsStatistical accounting and budgeting dominate attention because of reporting speed and issues of international comparability. The pandemic has emphasised the importance of timeliness. Government financial reporting is marginalised, though this should not be permanent if the pandemic retreats. Fiscal sustainability analysis will warn that UK public finances are even more unsustainable than before the pandemic.Social implicationsThe interaction of higher levels of debt and future increases in interest rates might result in a new era of austerity and further centralisation of public power and economic decision-making in one of the world's most centralised democracies.Originality/valueThe paper provides an early, structured analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 emergency on UK government finances.

Empirical appraisal of fiscal stability: the case of Ghana

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 753-779
Author(s):  
Nana Kwame Akosah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Poor Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to appraise the stability of Ghana’s fiscal policy by assessing government’s reaction in the past to rising public debt over the last three decades. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data spanning 1990Q1-2013Q2, the study evaluated the mean reverting properties of Ghana’s public debt and also estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. The complementary estimation techniques include Pesaran et al. (2001) bound testing cointegration test, differencing method and also Granger two-step cointegration methods. Findings – Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2013Q2, the study found the fiscal policy to be unstable in the 1990s, necessitating the adoption of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries’ initiative in 2001. The fiscal situation however relatively stabilizes afterwards following the external debt relief in 2001. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the recent fiscal policy (since 2006) seems to be confronted with tremendous fiscal pressures, exacerbated by fiscal excesses during election cycles as well as excessive domestic and external borrowings. In addition, the economic growth-debt link was found to be weak, though debt appears to adversely affect economic growth. Research limitations/implications – The study does not thoroughly explore the possibility of non-linear relationship between public debt and primary balance. Also, the result could be different using different data frequencies. Practical implications – The state of government finance has implications on the monetary policy and economic growth prospects of an economy. As an inflation targeting central bank since 2002, a successful monetary policy implementation that reins in inflation requires fiscal policy that curtails fiscal volatilities originating from imprudent behaviour of government. Therefore, the looming fiscal pressures in recent times would impair the effective implementation of the inflation targeting framework by the central bank, and also retard economic growth as the bulk of these expenditures are usually recurrent in the case of Ghana. Originality/value – This is the first paper to employ complementary econometric techniques to empirically evaluate fiscal sustainability in Ghana.

scholarly journals Allocating fiscal stimulus during COVID-19 crisis based on sectoral linkages in Egypt for increasing growth and reducing unemployment

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Mohsen Ibrahim ◽  
Ola Elkhawaga ◽  
Adla Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Intersectoral Linkages ◽  
Backward Linkages ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Backward And Forward Linkages

Purpose This paper aims to study the inter-sectoral linkages in the Egyptian economy, to increase the efficiency of allocating L.E 100bn fiscal stimulus package (FSP) to tackle the economic fallout from COVID-19 based on the strength of the backward and forward linkages of various sectors, and the values of both employment and value-added multipliers. The paper also measures the impact of the new FSP on the capability of various sectors in creating job opportunities and increasing economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The paper studies the intersectoral linkages by calculating backward and forward linkages index based on the latest input and output tables available for the Egyptian economy published in 2018. It also depends on a bivariate optimization model to distribute new investments allocated through the FSP based on the values of both employment and value-added multiplier for those sectors. The paper calculated both employment and value-added coefficients to measure the impact of the FSP on creating job opportunities and increasing growth rates. Findings Based on the results of the empirical analysis, both key sectors (with strong backward and forward linkages) and sectors with strong backward linkages have the highest impact on creating job opportunities and increasing growth rates in the Egyptian economy, which means that allocating FSPs in a way which targets those sectors, especially during economic crisis, could help in increasing the positive impacts of those packages. Originality/value The paper is based on the unbalanced growth theory of Hirschman and uses the empirical analysis to study the intersectoral linkages and allocate new investments through FSP through different sectors. The main policy implication of the empirical results of this paper suggests targeting the key sectors and the sectors with strong backward linkages during tough economic times related to COVID-19, to increase the positive impact of the package on the whole economy.

EU recovery fund will be vital for fiscal reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
German Government ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
The Impact

Significance Reform is needed if hard-hit, highly indebted countries are to pursue pro-growth policies over the coming years. The extent of reform will depend on a number of factors, especially the formation of the next German government and the impact of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery fund. Impacts Without more ambitious fiscal stimulus, Europe’s recovery will lag behind other developed regions. Future efforts to enhance EU fiscal powers and integration would likely face legal challenges from Germany’s constitutional court. Effective use of the EU’s recovery fund may force Eurosceptic parties in southern Europe to moderate their positions.

A survey of empirical findings on unconventional central bank policies

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 1533-1577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanos Papadamou ◽  
Costas Siriopoulos ◽  
Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Action Taking ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

PurposeThis paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.Design/methodology/approachThis survey covers the findings concerning portfolio rebalancing, signaling, liquidity, bank lending and confidence channels.FindingsThe positive effect of QE announcements on stock and bond prices seems to be unified across studies. A contagion effect from US QE to other emerging markets is identified, while currency devaluation is present in most cases for the country that its central bank adopted such policies. Moreover, impacts of non-conventional practices on GDP, inflation and unemployment are examined. The studies presenting weak instead of strong positive effects on inflation are more, and these studies, also, present weak positive effects on GDP growth.Originality/valueBased on the large body of research on non-conventional action taking, this is the first survey including effects of each country that adopted quantitative easing (QE) measures and that provides results from every methodology employed in order to estimate unconventional practices' impacts.

scholarly journals Monetary policy collision on the performance of banking sector in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Belavadi Nikhil ◽  
Shivakumar Deene
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The study aims to identify the impact of monetary policy tools on the performance of banks in India, and this could be an excellent suggestion to the regulators in framing the favourable interest rates which would meet the macroeconomic objectives of the Indian economy. Design/methodology/approach The design adopted in this study is descriptive and analytical research. Correlation and regression analysis is used to determine the relationship between bank rate (BR) and the performance of public sector banks in India. The sample chosen for this study is the public sector banks actively performing in India. Findings The performance is measured by taking three factors, and they are deposits, loans and advances (L&A) and total asset value of the banks. All three factors have shown an impact of BR on them during the five years. L&A affected the least amongst the three factors, but the other two were significantly impacted by the change in BR by the Reserve Bank of India. So, there should be a favourable fluctuation in the BR which will bring flexibility in the banking system, and they can perform well in the economy and the central bank also can concentrate on the macro-economic situation in the country. Originality/value This paper helps in giving suggestions to the Central bank, researchers, financial institutions to look into the financial performance and monetary policy rates and the central bank also can concentrate on the macro-economic situation in the country.

The impact of control quality on the non-performing loans of Tunisian listed banks

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moufida Ben Saada
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Audit Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Control Quality ◽  
Governance Practices ◽  
Accounting Practitioners ◽  
Risk Committee ◽  
Foreign Directors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to explore the extent to which the control quality impacts non performing loans (NPLs) of Tunisian listed banks by integrating the guidelines of Circular No. 2011-06 issued on 20 May 2011 by Tunisian Central Bank. Design/methodology/approach Regressions using panel data are applied on a sample of 11 listed banks during the period from 2010 to 2015. Findings The results show that the presence of foreign directors on the Tunisian bank board affects credit risk. These administrators, with knowledge, independence and technology transfer, exercise more control than institutional administrators or state representatives. The risk committee is more effective than the other committees (audit committee and credit committee) in reducing non-performing loans. The role played by this body is the most important. Practical implications Testing empirically the impact of control quality on NPL by integrating the guidelines of the Central Bank leads to a better evaluation of reforms’ application and effective measures to strengthen the banking governance practices. Originality value By exploring the application of the Central Bank’s guidelines for strengthening post-revolutionary banking governance practices, it becomes easy to assess the extent of the Circular No. 2011-06 by accounting practitioners, auditors and authority bodies to give the necessary recommendations for further reforms.

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