Greek GDP growth in 2022 will rely on EU recovery aid

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Side ◽  
Digital Services ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Future Growth

Significance The economic rebound from a 9% contraction in 2020 is mainly being driven by strong domestic demand supported by accommodative fiscal policies and higher-than-expected tourism revenues. However, the deteriorating epidemiological situation in Greece, and new COVID-19 variants expanding into Europe -- possibly resistant to vaccines -- pose risks to future growth prospects. Impacts Persistent supply-chain disruptions will slow down expansion in industrial output in 2022. Winding down the fiscal stimulus will narrow the primary budget deficit from 7.6% of GDP in 2021 to an estimated 1.2% in 2022. The primary budget deficit will widen in 2022-23 thanks to front-loading defence spending. Greater penetration of digital services is a positive side-effect of the pandemic. A deceleration in bank credit issuance could restrict corporate investment in 2022.

Unrest will complicate Macron’s reform agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
High Ranking ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
High Ranking Official ◽  
Ability To Drive

Significance Fort will be the eighth high-ranking official to resign since Macron took office in 2017. This will raise further doubts over the credibility of Macron’s presidency and reform agenda. Impacts As the euro-area’s second-largest economy, France threatens euro-area growth prospects. Failure to control France’s budget deficit will result in conflict with Brussels. Such economic concerns will reduce Macron’s ability to drive EU political and economic reforms.

Madagascar's Rajoelina will look to bolster mandate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Future Growth

Significance President Andry Rajoelina's new political platform, Isika rehetra miaraka amin'i Andry Rajoelina (IRD), is fielding candidates across all 119 districts, while presidential runner-up Marc Ravalomanana has 109 candidates running under his Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) party. The bulk of the candidates, 515 in total, are running as independents. Impacts A failure by Rajoelina to pass a law on the recovery of illicit assets could strain international relations. A large independent contingent in parliament would make it difficult for Rajoelina to secure a stable majority. Reforming water and power utility Jirama over the short-to-medium term could have a major bearing on future growth prospects.

Bond markets worry about higher rates under Trump

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Severe Deterioration ◽  
Stimulus Package

Significance Equity markets have risen in anticipation of a fiscal stimulus package which would boost growth prospects. In contrast, demand and prices for government bonds, which were already under strain due to rising inflation expectations, have fallen due to fears of aggressive interest rate tightening to combat a debt-fuelled inflation surge. A sustained bond sell-off -- particularly one accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation -- could lead to a severe deterioration in sentiment towards 'risky assets'. Impacts Investors will see Trump's victory as a shift from ultra-loose monetary policy towards a greater reliance on fiscal stimulus. Stock market enthusiasm for tax and spending ideas could evaporate if these plans are not implemented or do not boost growth as expected. Copper had its best week for five years as Trump's stimulus plans are expected to boost demand and prices for industrial metals. The rouble was less affected by the election than other major emerging market currencies on hopes that US-Russian relations will improve.

Strong finances will help Russia fund budget deficit

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Budget Planning ◽  
The Government

Significance Hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and plummeting global energy prices in the first half of the year, the government drew on its substantial reserves to fund fiscal stimulus and additional pandemic-related spending. Its focus has shifted to domestic borrowing through bond issuance. Impacts The cut-off price used in budget planning is likely to be reduced, affecting the government's scope to plug revenue gaps. A domestic recession will make banks more risk-averse and keener to buy government bonds. Depreciation will boost the ruble-denominated value of the sovereign wealth fund.

Ivorian coalition could split over succession plan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Growth ◽  
Succession Plan ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Set Up

Subject Ruling coalition divisions. Significance President Alassane Ouattara and former President Henri Konan Bedie agreed earlier this month to set up a committee to prepare a legal framework and timeframe to transform the ruling Rally of the Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) coalition into a unified party. The RHDP was formed in 2005 as a vehicle to get Ouattara into power. Without any effective opposition parties at present, the ruling coalition plans to turn the RHDP into a fully fledged party to maintain its hold on power. However, the transformation plan has been regularly delayed since it was first mooted in 2014. Impacts Rising concerns over domestic security could deter much-needed foreign investment and undermine strong growth prospects. Reforming the army will put further pressure on the widening budget deficit. A recent military retrenchment deal could cause a public backlash and rising public-sector worker demands next year.

Fiscal policies in EMU countries: strategies and empirical evidence

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Forte ◽  
Cosimo Magazzino
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
The Mean

Purpose The aim of the paper is to evaluate fiscal adjustments that have occurred in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries in the last 35 years, and their consequences on the economic growth process by using the mean group (MG) estimators. Design/methodology/approach Our emphasis is on the effects of different composition of fiscal stimuli and consolidations. We compare the effects on the economic growth rate of different compositions of major fiscal changes. We use a cyclically adjusted value of the fiscal variables to leave aside variations of the fiscal variables induced by business cycle fluctuations. Findings Our empirical research of the effects of large changes in fiscal policy, both in case of a fiscal consolidation and of fiscal stimulus in the 18 EMU countries from 1980 to 2015, shows that adjustments by cutting current expenditures, rather than by tax increases are more likely to boost economic growth. It also shows that cuts of investment expenditures may reduce GDP growth. During fiscal stimulus episodes, tax cuts and public investments are more likely to increase growth than current public expenditure. Originality/value This is the first study devoted to the EMU countries. It should be underlined that the results obtained as for EMU countries are not necessarily applicable to other countries, as the different government size as well as different market institutions may influence the results.

Chile's economic prospects will not recover rapidly

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Capacity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crucial Test ◽  
Future Growth

Significance The forecasts reflect the impact of currently low investment on the economy's future growth capacity. Ahead of the government's presentation of its 2017 budget to Congress at end-September, the independent Central Bank also warned that there is little room for sustainable fiscal stimulus. Impacts Next year would be Chile's fourth year of growth of only around 2% -- a trend which, according to private forecasts, may persist in 2018. Business criticism of the government's reforms is, in practice, helping to "talk down" the economy. The 2017 budget will be a crucial test of the government's commitment to fiscal sustainability.

The effect of emotions, eWOM quality and online review sequence on consumer intention to follow advice obtained from digital services

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Ruiz-Mafe ◽  
Enrique Bigné-Alcañiz ◽  
Rafael Currás-Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Structural Model ◽  
Online Reviews ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
Online Information ◽  
Bias Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Digital Services ◽  
Information Cues ◽  
Cognitive Information ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper analyses the interrelationships between emotions, the cognitive information cues of online reviews and intention to follow the advice obtained from digital platforms, paying special attention to the moderating effect of the sequencing of review valence.Design/methodology/approachThe data were collected from 830 Spanish Tripadvisor users. In a two-step approach, a measurement model was estimated and a structural model analysed to test the proposed hypotheses. SmartPLS 3.0 software was used. The moderating effect of sequencing of reviews is tested.FindingsThe data analysis showed a bias effect of review sequence on the impact of online information cues and emotions on intention to follow advice obtained from Tripadvisor. When the online reviews of a restaurant begin with positive commentaries, their perceived persuasiveness is a stronger driver of the pleasure and arousal elicited by online reviews than when they begin with negative reviews. On the other hand, the perceived helpfulness of online reviews only triggers arousal when the user reads negative, followed by positive, comments. The impact of pleasure on intention to follow the advice provided in an online travel community is higher with positive-negative than with negative-positive sequences.Originality/valueWhile researchers have demonstrated the benefits of customer reviews on company sales, a largely uninvestigated issue is the interplay between emotions and cognitive information cues in the processing of online reviews. This is one of the first studies to examine the moderating effect of conflicting reviews on the impact of emotions and cognitive information cues on consumer intention to follow the advice obtained from digital services.

Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Policies, and Financial Instability

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 552-558
Author(s):  
Alicia Girón ◽  
Eugenia Correa
Keyword(s):  
Financial Instability ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

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