Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

scholarly journals Comparison of Nominal and Real Rigidities: Fiscal Policy Perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
Piotr Krajewski
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Wage Rigidity ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Strong Positive Relationship ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
Consumer Habits ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of nominal and real rigidities in the economy on the effects of fiscal policy. The study confirmed the hypothesis that both nominal and real rigidities enhance the impact of fiscal policy on the Polish economy. In the case of nominal price rigidity it was found that the impact of government spending on GDP depends on the conduct of monetary policy. On the other hand, under conditions of wage rigidity, the strength of fiscal multipliers depends on the slope of the labour supply curve. The study also examined two types of real rigidities - lack of access to the credit market, and consumer habits. Analyses show that the above rigidities result primarily in a strong positive relationship between government spending and the level of consumption.

scholarly journals The Impact of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-101
Author(s):  
Sheilla Nyasha ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Research background: Although a number of studies have been conducted on the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth, it is difficult to tell with certainty whether or not an increase in public expenditure is good for economic growth. This lack of consensus on the results of the previous empirical findings makes this study of paramount importance as we take stock of the available empirical evidence from the 1980s to date. Purpose: In this paper, theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth has been reviewed in detail. Focus was placed on the review of literature that assessed the impact of government spending on economic growth. Research Methodology: This study grouped studies on the impact of public expenditure on economic growth based on their results. Three groups emerged – positive impact, negative impact and no impact. This was followed by a review of each relevant study and an evaluation of which outcome was more prevalent among the existing studies on the subject. Results: The literature reviewed has shown that the impact of government spending on economic growth is not clear cut. It varies from positive to negative; with some studies even finding no impact. Although the impact of government spending on economic growth was found to be inconclusive, the scale tilts towards a positive impact. Novelty: The study provides an insight into the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth based on a comprehensive review of previous empirical evidence across various countries since the 1980s.

scholarly journals The Role of the Clearance Crisis on Public Expenditure and Budget Deficit in Palestine

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
Bahaa Awwad ◽  
Jafar Zidan
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Public ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to study and analyze the clearance tax revenues, public expenditure, and the budget deficit between the years (1996-2019) in Palestine, and to discover the impact of the clearance tax crisis on current expenditures, developmental expenditures, and the budget deficit. In order to complete this study and achieve its purpose, the descriptive-analytical method and the quantitative approach were adopted. Financial data was collected from publications of the Palestinian Monetary Authority and the Palestinian Ministry of Finance. The study concluded that the clearance revenue crisis impacted the current expenditures and the total budget deficit or surplus. In addition, the study showed that there was no effect of this crisis on developmental expenditures. The study recommended restructuring economic agreements with Israel, more specifically the Paris Economic Protocol. Furthermore, the reliance on clearance tax in financing operational and development expenditures should be reduced by diversifying public revenue sources through various investment projects, restructuring the tax system in Palestine, developing the tax collection system, and reducing government spending to the maximum in order to reduce the budget deficit and repay the public debt.

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Jiuxia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Income Determination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.

scholarly journals Chad

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (134) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Health Care Spending ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Credit Facility ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents Chad’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility, Extension of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Rephasing of Access. In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak, the authorities have taken strong measures to halt the community spread of the virus. They are also scaling up health-related spending and are considering a set of economic measures to support households and businesses. Given the sudden nature of the shocks and their widespread impact, the authorities will be temporarily relaxing the fiscal deficit to allow for the scaling up of health care spending and to accommodate the impact of the sharp drop in oil prices. In order to safeguard debt sustainability, they remain committed to the medium-term fiscal path and will implement the needed adjustment measures as soon as the current crisis abates.

scholarly journals FISCAL POLICIES IN PANDEMIC TIMES: EUROPEAN EXPERIENCES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gligor Bishev ◽  
◽  
Aleksandar Stojkov ◽  
Fatmir Besimi ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
The Impact

The pandemic recession was fundamentally different from ordinary recessions, and thus required a different policy response. We review the empirical literature on fiscal consolidation and fiscal multipliers. Then, we assess the impact of fiscal policies on the pace of recovery and public debt sustainability. A premature or a strong fiscal consolidation might result in lower rates of economic growth and elevated public debt as a share of GDP. We critically analyze different adjustment paths across Europe and offer policy-relevant recommendations. The issue is particularly relevant for countries with a strong fiscal stimulus and moderate to high levels of public debt.

Import substitution contribution to Russia’s economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 58-78
Author(s):  
A. V. Gotovsky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Products

Import substitution becomes a hot topic in Russia every time world oil prices fall and the exchange rate of the ruble weakens. Since 2014, it has become a key area of state economic policy. Despite this, various indicators for assessing this phenomenon in the Russian economy have different trends and do not allow to make a clear conclusion about the results achieved. There is also no comprehensive assessment of the impact on economic growth. The paper analyzes approaches to the construction of relevant indicators, taking into account the model tools of the inter-industry balance, offers a macroeconomic method for decomposing GDP growth in the areas of its final use, with the allocation of the contribution of import substitution by increasing the availability of finished domestic products, and localization of production, domestic import substitution, and export-oriented one. Based on the results of calculating the corresponding indicators for 1996—2019, the conclusion is made about the significance of this factor for the dynamics of economic growth in Russia, especially in the periods of high volatility of economic environment. A deliberately high error of forecasts is noted when applying the traditional approach of GDP decomposition from the final demand side, which assumes the preservation in the short term of the proportions of consumption between domestic and imported finished products, materials and components.

Russian Stock Index volatility: Oil and sanctions

2020 ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Artem D. Aganin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Russian Stock Market ◽  
The Garch Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Parametric Estimate

Since 2014, the Russian stock market has been under pressure due to both sanctions and a sharp drop in oil prices, which led to its increased volatility. This paper analyzes the impact of the price volatility of Brent oil and sanctions on the volatility of the Russian stock index RTS. Under volatility the paper understands both its parametric estimate obtained from the GARCH model estimation as well as non-parametric estimate — realized volatility. To estimate the effect of oil price volatility and sanctions, several cointegrated regressions were analyzed. The robustness of the results in relation to the choice of volatility assessment is demonstrated. The results show that RTS index volatility still depends on oil prices volatility in 2007—2018. This dependence is most pronounced in the periods of crisis. The paper also demonstrates the adjustment of the Russian stock market to the previous sanctions, which calls into question their long-term efficiency.

scholarly journals Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (92) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiro Honda ◽  
Hiroaki Miyamoto
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Aging Change ◽  
Policy Measures

Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as population ages, the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened. We also find that, while high-debt countries generally face weaker fiscal multipliers, high-debt aging economies face even weaker multipliers. These results point to important policy implications: population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession and thus require larger fiscal space to allow a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability. Our analysis also suggests that policy measures to promote labor supply could help increase the output effect of fiscal stimulus in aging economies.

scholarly journals Does Fiscal Stimulus Work When Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt?

2016 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Yuliya Demyanyk ◽  
Elena Loutskina ◽  
Daniel Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multiplier ◽  
Individual Household ◽  
The Impact

We argue that fiscal stimulus funded by public debt is effective for increasing economic activity and employment even in recessions that are caused by overborrowing in the private sector. We analyze the impact of government spending on local economies between 2007 and 2009 and find evidence that the fiscal multiplier is higher in geographical areas characterized by higher individual household debt.

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