Central European defence cooperation will increase

Subject The Central European perspective on greater EU cooperation in defence. Significance The proposal on August 26 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of the Central European 'Visegrad Four' (V4) countries for the creation of a European army was the first time such a clarion call had been made collectively by EU leaders, as opposed to the more modest idea of developing European defence cooperation and capability. It is surprising that Poland was part of the initiative, given its commitment to NATO and trans-Atlantic relations, which are often taken as a reason to oppose further EU integration. Impacts Brexit has brought forth a variety of proposals to strengthen the EU's military arm. However, political and operational challenges mean that neither deeper cooperation nor a full EU army will be achieved easily, if ever. Insecurity about Russia and the US NATO commitment to Central Europe underlie the call, but cannot be meaningfully addressed soon. Poland will remain staunchly pro-NATO but must prepare for defence alternatives that can include EU forces.

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 92-109
Author(s):  
Nadezhda Beliakova ◽  
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The article presents the concept of Bio-Ethik by the German theologian Fritz Jahr (1895–1953) and discusses the reasons of the interest to his legacy in Central Europe. The popularity of Fritz Jahr’s works fits into the specific context of a complex development of bioethics in Central Europe at the turn of the twenty-first century. The appeal to Fritz Jahr’s ideas in the field of bioethics allows us to assess the contribution of Christian thinkers to the articulation of bioethical issues and to raise the question of why in modern bioethics, which is trying to draw upon universal, non-religious values, there was a demand for theological works of a Protestant pastor. The article describes the attitude to bioethics in Germany at the turn of the 1980s–90s, the ideological conflict of the “anti-bioethics” movement and the context of the new reception of Fritz Jahr’s works.


2019 ◽  
pp. 23-40
Author(s):  
Stephen A. Crist

This chapter concerns the internationalization of the Dave Brubeck Quartet. After several years of preliminary discussions, in 1958 the group finally traveled abroad for the first time, on a three-month trip, largely under the auspices of the US State Department. By this time, the Quartet’s personnel finally reached a steady state, after a series of different bass players and drummers. The “classic” Quartet was the group of musicians who recorded Time Out the next year. Around the same time, Brubeck became increasingly involved with issues of civil rights. The Quartet also made history in the late 1950s by performing jazz in concert halls and on college campuses. Finally, Dave and Iola Brubeck devoted themselves tirelessly to the creation and promotion of The Real Ambassadors, a musical that they hoped would be produced on Broadway.


Significance Investors are brushing off mounting political risks in Poland despite an erosion of democratic checks and balances under the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government. In Romania, despite the rapidly escalating political crisis, the leu has strengthened slightly against the euro since the start of this year, since when the yield on benchmark ten-year Romanian local bonds has risen by 25 bps to 3.6%. This is still significantly below the 5% level before the ‘taper tantrum’ in mid-2013, which stemmed from the unexpected decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its asset purchases. Impacts After post-US election outflows, EM mutual funds are once again enjoying sizeable inflows, with EM debt funds reaching a four-month high. Some of the strain on EM currencies will be relieved by the 2.5% fall in the dollar index against a basket of its peers since end-December. Smaller export-led CEE economies will benefit from factory orders in Germany rising in December at their fastest pace in 30 months.


Subject The US indictment of Russian intelligence officers. Significance The latest indictment to come out of the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller is the most striking yet as it targets Russian state actors for the first time. It sets out charges of hacking into Democratic Party networks, stealing more than 50,000 documents and using them for disruptive purposes in the 2016 US presidential election. Despite the considerable level of detail in the evidence offered, the White House has yet to address publicly the issues raised or confronting Russia. Impacts US government, election software providers, parties and social media platforms will face pressure to prepare for the midterm elections. Detailed attribution of cyber interference will likely weaken the notion that perpetrators enjoy a high level of plausible deniability. Hackers will continue to employ 'spearphishing' for its simplicity, success rate and cost-effectiveness.


Significance The governing coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) made gains, with the LDP itself now controlling exactly half the seats in the chamber. Parties in favour of revising Japan's Constitution captured the two-thirds supermajority necessary to call a referendum on the question for the first time ever. Impacts An economic stimulus package is likely soon. Parliamentary opposition to relocation of the US Futenma airbase has strengthened -- a setback for Japan-US relations. New foreign policy initiatives are likely in the near future. Cooperation among opposition parties paid off, and may become more common in future.


Subject The impact of US monetary policy tightening. Significance Following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) historic decision to raise rates for the first time since 2006, the start of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is accentuating the hawkish stance of Latin America's main central banks. This comes amid a dramatic sell-off in commodity markets, persistent concerns about China's economy and a severe deterioration in economic conditions across the region. Impacts EM asset prices have remained relatively resilient to the rise in US interest rates, in stark contrast to the 'taper tantrum' in 2013. Hitherto-resilient regional local currency government bond markets will face foreign capital outflows due to falling commodity prices. The Brazilian real is 2015's worst-performing major EM currency, but due largely to political and economic difficulties at home.


Significance At the same time as pursuing peace talks with the Afghan government, the Taliban are using calibrated armed force to push the United States into withdrawing all its troops. In an incontrovertible breach of their agreement with Washington, the insurgents launched their largest military offensive in years in October. As though this were not happening, President Donald Trump ordered the US force in Afghanistan to be reduced to 2,500 by the end of his term. Impacts NATO and other coalition allies in Afghanistan will mirror the US exit with proportionate troop drawdowns. Opposition to talks is hardening in Kabul as sceptics claim the Taliban are acting in bad faith. Reverses suffered by the Afghan security forces will focus debate on whether they can cope once US forces leave. The Afghan president is accelerating the creation of the 'Territorial Army', recruited from the militias of former warlords.


Subject European and Middle East priorities in the Middle East. Significance The US killing of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 focused international attention on continuing tensions between Tehran and Washington and revealed deep and ongoing fractures in the transatlantic alliance. These strains were not caused by Soleimani's death; they stem from fundamental strategic differences on Middle Eastern policy priorities between the transactional Trump administration and a multilaterally oriented Europe. Impacts Trump’s re-election could further divide European from US interests in the Middle East. Europe’s main focus in the Middle East will continue to be security and controlling migration, with less concern for human rights. Future EU-UK foreign policy unity will hinge on safeguarding security and defence cooperation post-Brexit. European efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar as a reserve currency, such as creating an independent SWIFT system, will gain support.


Subject Budapest's balancing between traditional and non-traditional ties. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently received two important visitors in Budapest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (February 2) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (February 17). The short interval between them is symbolic of Hungary's foreign-policy balancing act. However, the Fidesz government's 'Eastern opening' strategy has increasingly shown its limits in the past year, prompting Orban to make gestures towards his Western allies. Impacts Central European allies are likely to distance themselves further from Hungary following Putin's visit to Budapest. Despite addressing discriminatory taxes on TV advertising, political control will continue to limit foreign media investments. Anti-Russian sentiment within Hungarian public opinion may open a window of opportunity for opposition parties.


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