India-Pakistan tensions up regional geopolitical risk

Subject Outlook for India-Pakistan ties. Significance The cross-border raid conducted on the night of September 28-29 by Indian security forces apparently inside Pakistan-held Kashmir in response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir represents a continuation of a newly assertive neighbourhood security policy by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pakistan has denied such a strike took place, claiming it was only a case of border firing. Impacts Another India-Pakistan war (although unlikely) would involve conventional weapons. Delhi's military move will virtually eliminate bilateral commercial and cultural ties. Beijing and Washington's leverage to prevent an escalation in South Asia may prove insufficient.

Subject India's regional diplomatic posture. Significance The recent cross-border raid by Indian security forces along the India-Myanmar border may signal an assertive neighbourhood security policy by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. While Modi's Pakistan policy is marred by suspicion and hostility, he has successfully wooed other difficult neighbours, namely Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. These trends seem to mark an Indian attempt to increase influence in South Asia, while simultaneously isolating Pakistan. Impacts India will need to placate Myanmar with softer rhetoric and closer counterterrorism cooperation in border areas. 'Offensive defence' risks undermining India's ties with the United States and China on both the diplomatic and economic fronts. Frosty India-Pakistan ties will fuel the arms race on both sides, with defence spending often poaching development funds.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ibrahimi ◽  
Jalal Eddine Liassini

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to address certain gaps and contribute to enriching the literature on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Africa; describe the phenomenon taking into account the particularity of the country; address recommendations to public policies and investors and make this article a ground-breaking article on research into the phenomenon of the M&A market in North Africa.Design/methodology/approachWith description and an exploratory intention, the authors develop phenomenon driven research. As appropriate phenomenon driven research, the authors focus on characteristics of Moroccan M&A market. The authors use scientific investigation to provide descriptions and explanations of the phenomena in order to add a new perspective to the M&A literature in North African region. The authors work on the particularity of companies in Morocco, typology of M&A, geographic areas, socio-economic indicators, trade agreements, politics and culture.FindingsUnderstand that the phenomenon of domestic M&A is a phenomenon of big cities and knows the participation of small and medium enterprises. The political variable, the trade agreements and the socio-economic weight of the countries influence the cross-border M&A in to out. Sharing a border and common culture has no impact on cross-border M&A but the history of colonization has an impact.Research limitations/implicationsThe scientific contribution is first an extension of the neoclassical theory on the initiation of M&A operations. Throughout these 29 years of history, the existence of external shocks such as regulations has influenced the activity of M&A operations. Privatization, partial opening of sectors to foreign investment tax incentives have contributed to the realization of M&A operations.Practical implicationsThis paper also has an economic and practical contribution, as it informs about the absence of M&A operation in the agriculture and agri-food sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This region recognizes a food shortage that will increase by 70–100% between 2010 and 2050 with a strong population growth. The authors also note that regulations, royal directives, influence the activity and geographic choices of M&A. The political variable remains decisive for the cross-border M&A activity between Morocco and Algeria, but encourages acquisitions in countries in West and Central Africa.Originality/valueM&A research in Africa is poor and suffers from several shortcomings; these barriers push researchers to produce fewer papers on this phenomenon. Through data collection, description and explanation, the authors tried to produce a paper focusing on the M&A phenomenon in a country in North Africa. To the authors’ knowledge, no article has dealt with this phenomenon in this country which is known for its strong M&A activity.


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahleho Tseole ◽  
Ngoako Solomon Marutha

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate a framework for knowledge retention to support business continuity in cross-border mergers of the telecommunications industry in Lesotho. Design/methodology/approach This study applied a qualitative case study, with data collected through interviews from a purposively selected sample of staff members who held managerial positions. Information in this study was partially extracted from the PhD thesis of Dr Tseole ET supervised by Prof Ngulube P at the University of South Africa completed in 2021. Findings The study discovered that a considerable amount of knowledge may have been lost because employees who either left the organisation or those who were apparently forced to resign during the process had left without any proper knowledge retention arrangements. Research limitations/implications The framework proposed in this study may be used in framing future studies as a theoretical framework. The study also provides new literature for review and discussion of background in future related studies. Practical implications The framework provided in the study may be used as a benchmark in the knowledge management industry and/or organisations for policy development or improvements and implementation of knowledge retention strategies. Social implications Through recommendations and framework provided by this study, organisations will be able to improve their services to their sphere of influence in the surrounding communities. So, community will be receiving an improved and good service at all the times. Originality/value A framework for facilitating knowledge retention in the cross-border mergers of the telecommunications industry is therefore proposed and the researchers believe it will be helpful to the organisation for improving knowledge retention going forward, particularly in the merger process.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Androutsou ◽  
Theodore Metaxas

Purpose Under the Directive 2011/24/EU, medical tourism and cross-border health are interrelated terms regarding the freedom to move to get the most accessible medical treatment into EU Member State within the defined procedures for reimbursement. Little known empirically regarding the efficiency of the cross-border health/medical tourism industry. This study aims to measure its efficiency in Europe for the years 2010-2014, by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Design/methodology/approach Data obtained from OECD and the European Core Health Indicators (ECHI), which is collecting the data through Eurostat. Eurostat collects data on health-care activities and provides data on hospital discharges, including the hospital discharges of non-residents and these include hospital discharges of in-patients and day care patients. The analysis uses “DEA.P, 2.1 for windows” by Coelli (1996). Findings The results show that the Members States health systems were very efficient in handling non-residents in-patients; however, when managing day cases/outpatients, the efficiency scores dropped. Practical implications The findings would have significant associations affecting intentions to revisit clinics and the destination country. In addition, will be useful to those seeking a better understanding of the cross-border health and medical tourism industry efficiency. Originality/value Extending the findings of the European Commission report (2015c) by examining how well medical tourists are informed about the decision they are making, would be of perceived value. These are important indicators at European level by helping each Member State to measure its medical tourism services.


Subject Civilian-military relationship. Significance In an apparently unprecedented and coordinated governmental move, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in parliament reportedly warned the military of growing international isolation faced by Pakistan due to its failure to suppress cross-border militant groups operating out of Pakistan. That the serious concern was shared publicly at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are rising is unusually bold for Pakistan's politicians. Such warnings have been given previously, reportedly by former President Asif Ali Zardari's government (2008-13), but always in private. Impacts Kashmir's 'jihadi infrastructure' will not be dismantled any time soon. Beijing and Washington are united in pressuring Pakistan's military to avoid escalation with India. Pakistan military's Afghan policy is unlikely to be amended.


Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.


Significance Recent clashes between security forces and ethnic minority groups living in border areas have highlighted the potential for increased domestic tensions, in an environment of regional escalation and pressure from Washington. In particular, a deadly September 22 terrorist attack on a military parade in the southwestern city of Ahvaz raised questions about Iran’s internal stability. Impacts Clashes could be used to justify a wider national-security crackdown against ethnic Arabs, other minorities and civil society. On balance the Ahvaz attack will boost the popularity and political influence of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Perceived internal ethnic threats may increase popular support for Iran’s regional presence as a deterrence strategy.


Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.


Subject Cross-border e-commerce in China. Significance Cross-border e-commerce allows consumer goods companies outside China to sell directly to Chinese consumers without a formal legal presence in China. Government policy has supported the rapid growth of this industry while cracking down on unofficial channels. Impacts Consumer goods that cannot otherwise be sold in China can be sold through the cross-border e-commerce channel. Chinese e-commerce companies are increasing emphasis on their cross-border e-commerce platforms. Sales to overseas Chinese who resell products in China will become less important to well-known brands.


Significance The United States and Iran are both fighting against ISG in Iraq, but their rivalry elsewhere, such as taking opposite sides in Syria and Yemen, and historic enmity has prevented explicit cooperation. They are likely to be the two most significant external actors in helping Baghdad reclaim Iraqi territory from ISG. Impacts The symbolic impact of capturing Tikrit would be significant, but its actual impact on the wider military campaign will be limited. It would provide Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi time to prepare Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to a greater level of readiness. However, rapid success of militia forces could lead to even more difficult political choices.


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