Oil development will challenge Guyana's institutions

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Domestic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
Government Oversight ◽  
Regulatory Bodies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Institutional Challenges

Subject The institutional challenges of an oil bonanza. Significance With the ExxonMobil-led consortium firming up plans to begin oil production in 2020, attention has turned to the readiness of Guyana’s domestic institutions to provide adequate monitoring and oversight of the group’s operations. Impacts Doubts over institutional quality will continue to dog the authorities and the credibility of government oversight. Both oil development and the rise of new regulatory bodies will strain the supply of qualified labour, hitting job markets. The government will struggle to channel the expected boom in revenues effectively.

Legal analysis of Qatar’santi-money laundering and combating terrorist financing legislation and regulation amidst the summer 2017 GCC crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 793-804
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmad Naheem
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Terrorist Financing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Regulatory Bodies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Financing Of Terrorism

Purpose The recent diplomatic split between members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Qatar with accusations of terrorist financing (TF). This paper aims to study Qatar’s domestic legislations, which specifically targets money laundering and TF activities. The country has stringently worked in compliance with international standards on combating financing of terrorism (CFT) and anti-money laundering (AML) practices by imparting autonomous power to regulatory bodies, such as the Qatar Central Bank and other agencies. Design/methodology/approach This paper studies independent legislations passed under the Emir’s decree over the past decade advancing Qatar’s AML ranking, with significant effort in CFT regulations. The paper also analyses the advancement in AML/CFT regulation and their validity with respect to international standards set by various governmental, intergovernmental and non-profit agencies. Findings The analysis finds Qatar in compliance with strong AML/CFT regulations. Further, it finds the government to have provided transparent oversight to international organizations that attest to the findings of the legislative efforts. This paper disproves claims and accusations that have possibly been presented to the GCC and subsequently led members to abruptly end diplomatic relations with Qatar over allegations of TF activities, amongst others. Originality/value The paper offers insight into Qatar’s legislative and regulatory advancement with respect to the AML/CTF in the past decade. The paper also discusses Qatar’s legislative advancement in relation to the evolutions of the country’s financial system, adopting a more robust mechanism to combat financing of terrorism and ML.

Diversification will be hard amid Kazakhstan slowdown

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
The Government

Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Azerbaijan looks to gas as oil's importance wanes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Impact

Subject Impact of oil output cuts on Azerbaijan. Significance Azerbaijan has agreed to cut oil production in the first half of 2017 in support of the agreement reached by OPEC and non-OPEC states. It can ill afford a further loss of revenues, but the bigger picture is that oil production is already on a downward curve. Impacts To avoid social unrest, the government will need to allocate spending to mitigate the impact of rising prices. Fiscal pressures may rein in lavish spending on Russian military hardware. The government will maintain strong ties with Turkey as an export route and security ally.

Oil outlook could challenge Guyana's policy capacity

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Capacity ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Offshore Oil

Subject Oil development in Guyana. Significance In 2017 ExxonMobil announced the development of a major offshore oil find in Guyana. The news has been welcomed in Guyana, but there are concerns about the potential impact that developing significant oil production will have on the country’s economy, society and environment. Impacts This development and future oil advances could attract foreign investment if the international oil price remains near current levels. The prospect of Guyana becoming a successful oil producer/exporter will be a source of tension with Venezuela. Transparency and effective economic management may prove difficult to achieve. The fluctuating oil price will affect governments’ ability to budget effectively.

South Sudan's violent standoff is unlikely to cease

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government

Significance Fighting has escalated between rebel groups and the government since the second breakdown of cooperation between President Salva Kiir and Machar (his erstwhile deputy) in July. South Sudan's local and national political future appears highly unstable, while the economy confronts significant challenges and the humanitarian toll mounts. Impacts Insecurity and displacement will perpetuate the protracted humanitarian crisis; Western aid for the response will continue. Additional UN troops may improve security in Juba but will be unable to prevent violence elsewhere. Fighting may cause brief disruptions to oil production in Upper Nile.

Suriname electoral reform will boost re-election bid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.

Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Military Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Budget Crisis ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Significance In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve. Impacts Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived. If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow. The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.

Iraqi Kurdistan could see oil and gas advances

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Iraqi Kurdistan ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Slight Rise

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.

Oman will innovate to meet growing energy needs

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Crude Oil Production ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
Energy Innovation ◽  
The Government

Significance The government signed up to agreements by OPEC and non-OPEC states in December 2016 to cut oil production for six months in an attempt to boost prices. The move demonstrated a desire to show solidarity, even though it pushed Oman below its recently achieved crude oil production record of 1 million barrels per day (b/d), reducing fiscal revenue. Impacts Positive Omani gas cooperation with Iran might tempt other Gulf Arab states, such as Qatar and Kuwait, to follow suit. Any deeper economic cooperation with Tehran would strain Muscat-Riyadh relations, already tense because of differences over Yemen. If new oil and gas exploitation methods succeed, Oman could become a regional leader in energy innovation. The country is poorly prepared for its upcoming post-oil transition, which will hit the rentier economy.

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