Brexit will damage UK aerospace industry

Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK aerospace industry. Significance The UK aerospace industry's competitiveness and growth potential will depend on the United Kingdom's future relationship with the EU. Key questions include the free movement of people, involvement in research and development (R&D) programmes, trade agreements and membership of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Impacts The contraction of the economy due to Brexit could reduce public spending in the defence sector, affecting aerospace companies. A drop in the value of the pound and the downturn in the economy may reduce consumer demand for air travel. UK military resources, including the independent nuclear deterrent, may be an asset in negotiations with European leaders. The Aerospace Technology Institute's relationships with countries such as Germany and Sweden will be beneficial in case of a 'hard' Brexit.

Subject UK and EU trade policy. Significance The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will affect both the EU’s economic importance and its ability to realise trade objectives. The impact of the rupture will be greater still for the United Kingdom, which has to develop a trade policy from scratch and reconstruct its trading relationships with scores of countries in addition to the EU. Impacts Rules of origin mean that some UK firms will lose access to foreign markets even where London has concluded a replacement trade agreement. EU and UK demand for imports from the rest of the world will be reduced by the economic impact of Brexit and COVID-19 disruption. Replacing EU trade agreements with third countries will take longer for the UK government because COVID-19 will take priority.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK agricultural and food and drink sectors. Significance Agriculture and the food and drink sector will be among those industries most affected by Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to pursue a ‘hard’ Brexit. It is uncertain to what extent domestic agricultural policies will replace the support and funding mechanisms of the EU. The food and drink sector will have to adjust to the possibility of future tariffs. Impacts Scottish independence would hit the drink sector, with Scotch whisky alone accounting for almost one-quarter of UK food and drink exports. The burgeoning UK wine industry could be damaged if the informal knowledge transfer from French wine experts slows down. The United Kingdom and the EU will need to cooperate on the issue of access arrangements for fishing.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey P. Burgess ◽  
Timothy McIver ◽  
Philippe Tenglemann ◽  
Rosanne Lariven ◽  
Andrea Pomana ◽  
...  

Purpose To provide an overview of the national foreign direct investment (“FDI”) screening mechanisms in place across Europe including in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. Design/methodology/approach This article summarizes the key elements of the national FDI screening regimes of some of the leading European economies. This includes setting out the relevant investment thresholds, protected sectors, lengths of review periods, standstill obligations and potential sanctions in each jurisdiction. Findings Many of Europe’s leading economies are following the wider global trend towards stricter reviews of foreign investment ahead of the EU Screening Regulation coming into force in October 2020. However, the approach taken to FDI screening can vary significantly at a country level in terms of both process and substance and the applicable laws are evolving rapidly, not least as a response to concerns related to the impact of COVID-19. Practical implications Investors looking to make acquisitions in Europe will need to consider whether national FDI screening will apply to their proposed investments. Depending on the jurisdiction, FDI screening can introduce lengthy review periods and require detailed information gathering as well as uncertainty as to the final outcome. Potential investors also need to consider the risk of sanctions, including criminal sanctions, for non-compliance with the screening regimes. Originality/value This article offers a summary and comparison of national FDI screening regimes across Europe.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Moradlou ◽  
Hendrik Reefke ◽  
Heather Skipworth ◽  
Samuel Roscoe

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of geopolitical disruptions on the manufacturing supply chain (SC) location decision of managers in UK multinational firms. The context of study is the UK manufacturing sector and its response to the UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU), or Brexit.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts an abductive, theory elaboration approach and expands on Dunning's eclectic paradigm of international production. A Delphi study over four iterative rounds is conducted to gather and assess insights into manufacturing SC location issues related to Brexit. The panel consisted of 30 experts and managers from a range of key industries, consultancies, governmental organisations, and academia. The Delphi findings are triangulated using a focus group with 38 participants.FindingsThe findings indicate that the majority of companies planned or have relocated production facilities from the UK to the EU, and distribution centres (DCs) from the EU to the UK. This was because of market-seeking advantages (being close to major centres of demand, ease of access to local and international markets) and efficiency-seeking advantages (costs related to expected delays at ports, tariff and non-tariff barriers). Ownership and internalisation advantages, also suggested by the eclectic paradigm, did not play a role in the location decision.Originality/valueThe study elaborates on the OLI framework by showing that policy-related uncertainty is a primary influencing factor in the manufacturing location decision, outweighing the importance of uncertainty as an influencer of governance mode choices. The authors find that during geopolitical disruptions managers make location decisions in tight time-frames with incomplete and imperfect information, in situations of high perceived uncertainty. The study elaborates on the eclectic paradigm by explaining how managerial cognition and bounded rationality influence the manufacturing location decision-making process.


Subject Euroscepticism in Western Europe. Significance In the aftermath of the UK referendum to leave the EU ('Brexit'), attention is turning to Euroscepticism across the continent. A number of Eurosceptic parties have called for membership referenda in their countries, while the public response has been mixed. Impacts Governments seeking to address Euroscepticism are likely to increase pressure on the EU to reform. Economic recovery and a slowdown of migrant flows may benefit mainstream parties and reduce support for Eurosceptic movements. Unpopular EU policies may be put on hold in the short-to-medium term -- likely affecting trade agreements CETA and TTIP.


Subject Outlook for UK-EU trade deals. Significance Following the 'Brexit' referendum, a statement from EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom that the United Kingdom must negotiate its EU exit before concluding a trade deal alters assessments of future trading conditions across the English Channel. Even if the United Kingdom were to retain access to the single market or negotiate a free trade area with the EU, UK-EU trade is likely to be governed solely by WTO rules for many years. Impacts Given the UK government's lack of trade negotiators, the private sector could shape the country's negotiating positions. For UK exporters with domestic suppliers, the impact of tariffs on EU shipments will be mitigated by the pound's depreciation. However, the beneficial impact of the latter is reduced for UK exporters that source from abroad.


Subject UK post-Brexit trade with ASEAN. Significance The UK government is retooling trade policy ahead of the United Kingdom's departure from the EU in March 2019 after which it will regain its ability to negotiate trade deals. In April, UK international trade secretary Liam Fox confirmed that this would include seeking free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN and its member states. Impacts ASEAN infrastructure and regulatory imbalances will stifle efficient trade growth in the medium term. Effective implementation of trade deals will require the United Kingdom to settle its post-Brexit WTO arrangements quickly. The May 16 ECJ ruling could make it easier for the European Commission to agree FTAs without portfolio investment provisions.


Subject The impact of anti-money laundering legislation. Significance The UK Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act approved on May 23, 2018 requires British Overseas Territories (OTs) to introduce by December 31, 2020 public registers of the beneficial ownership of companies and trust funds registered in each OT. The OTs affected by this legislation are Anguilla, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands (BVI), Cayman Islands, Montserrat and Turks and Caicos Islands. Impacts Company registrations provide jobs in the legal and compliance fields and will remain a key contributor to government revenue. The fall in company registrations in the BVI will likely spread to other OTs and accelerate in the wake of the Act. Given the number of EU banks in the OTs, the Brexit impact will be severe if financial institutions there lose access to the EU market.


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