Brexit will affect EU and UK trade policy differently

Subject UK and EU trade policy. Significance The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will affect both the EU’s economic importance and its ability to realise trade objectives. The impact of the rupture will be greater still for the United Kingdom, which has to develop a trade policy from scratch and reconstruct its trading relationships with scores of countries in addition to the EU. Impacts Rules of origin mean that some UK firms will lose access to foreign markets even where London has concluded a replacement trade agreement. EU and UK demand for imports from the rest of the world will be reduced by the economic impact of Brexit and COVID-19 disruption. Replacing EU trade agreements with third countries will take longer for the UK government because COVID-19 will take priority.

Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK agricultural and food and drink sectors. Significance Agriculture and the food and drink sector will be among those industries most affected by Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to pursue a ‘hard’ Brexit. It is uncertain to what extent domestic agricultural policies will replace the support and funding mechanisms of the EU. The food and drink sector will have to adjust to the possibility of future tariffs. Impacts Scottish independence would hit the drink sector, with Scotch whisky alone accounting for almost one-quarter of UK food and drink exports. The burgeoning UK wine industry could be damaged if the informal knowledge transfer from French wine experts slows down. The United Kingdom and the EU will need to cooperate on the issue of access arrangements for fishing.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK aerospace industry. Significance The UK aerospace industry's competitiveness and growth potential will depend on the United Kingdom's future relationship with the EU. Key questions include the free movement of people, involvement in research and development (R&D) programmes, trade agreements and membership of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Impacts The contraction of the economy due to Brexit could reduce public spending in the defence sector, affecting aerospace companies. A drop in the value of the pound and the downturn in the economy may reduce consumer demand for air travel. UK military resources, including the independent nuclear deterrent, may be an asset in negotiations with European leaders. The Aerospace Technology Institute's relationships with countries such as Germany and Sweden will be beneficial in case of a 'hard' Brexit.


Subject Outlook for UK-EU trade deals. Significance Following the 'Brexit' referendum, a statement from EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom that the United Kingdom must negotiate its EU exit before concluding a trade deal alters assessments of future trading conditions across the English Channel. Even if the United Kingdom were to retain access to the single market or negotiate a free trade area with the EU, UK-EU trade is likely to be governed solely by WTO rules for many years. Impacts Given the UK government's lack of trade negotiators, the private sector could shape the country's negotiating positions. For UK exporters with domestic suppliers, the impact of tariffs on EU shipments will be mitigated by the pound's depreciation. However, the beneficial impact of the latter is reduced for UK exporters that source from abroad.


Subject UK post-Brexit trade with ASEAN. Significance The UK government is retooling trade policy ahead of the United Kingdom's departure from the EU in March 2019 after which it will regain its ability to negotiate trade deals. In April, UK international trade secretary Liam Fox confirmed that this would include seeking free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN and its member states. Impacts ASEAN infrastructure and regulatory imbalances will stifle efficient trade growth in the medium term. Effective implementation of trade deals will require the United Kingdom to settle its post-Brexit WTO arrangements quickly. The May 16 ECJ ruling could make it easier for the European Commission to agree FTAs without portfolio investment provisions.


Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance The first round of virtual UK-US free trade negotiations began on Tuesday May 5 and conclude today. While a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States is a stated priority for the UK government, it will be difficult to conclude a comprehensive deal this year, in particular due to divisions over agrifood and medicine, while there is also not enough time. However, the chances of the United Kingdom and United States agreeing a deal narrower in scope than a fully-fledged FTA are higher. Impacts The main obstacles in reaching an FTA will be regulatory ones. It will be almost impossible for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. Washington knows an FTA is politically important for the Conservative government, giving it leverage to shape a favourable deal.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Yang ◽  
Christopher Cooke

PurposeThis study aims to explore the barriers to upscaling the production capacity of the edible insect sector in the UK and to identify the impact of current regulation on the sector's development.Design/methodology/approachA significant proportion of edible insect-producing companies within the UK were identified through an online market research database and contacted via email to invite them to participate in this study. Phone interviews were conducted with ten companies. Thematic analysis was adopted for data analysis.FindingsThere were five themes identified as barriers to the upscaling of the production for the edible insect sector in the UK: insect feeding materials, production capacity, expertise and knowledge, new product development and regulatory uncertainty.Research limitations/implicationsThis research was based on a qualitative study. Further quantitative research is needed to test the extent of the impact of these five themes on upscaling production capacity. In addition to production capacity, marketing and consumers' acceptance, culture and behaviour can also be considered in future studies.Originality/valueThis study makes a significant contribution to the literature by providing insight on the barriers to upscaling production capacity in the edible insect sector.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 202-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lubna Uzair ◽  
Ahmad Nawaz

PurposeThis paper aims to empirically examine the trade creation and diversion impacts on merchandise imports of Pakistan under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The analysis of Pakistan’s preferential treatment with its largest trade partner as well as the most substantial exporter of the world will help to shape trade policy, open windows for academic research and also gives an immense contribution in literature.Design/methodology/approachA disaggregated panel data on the imports of Pakistan from China and other WTO member countries and tariff concessions at Harmonized System (HS) two-digit level used for the agreement period of 2006-2012. The empirical analysis takes care of bias through robust and panel-corrected standard errors with time, industry-specific effects and controlling for multilateral trade resistance.FindingsEvidence found in support of trade creation under the Pakistan–China FTA. It means overall this agreement increased the welfare of Pakistani consumers.Practical implicationsFindings are in favour of negotiations and signing for the next round of this agreement and with other major trade partners like the US and Saudi Arabia.Originality/valueIt is worth investigating empirically the impact of preferential trade liberalization between Pakistan – a developing country – and China – the largest importer of the world – explicitly, in the form of trade creation or diversion. The empirical assessment of this FTA signed with the world’s largest exporter will not only contribute immensely to the literature but also help in trade policy formulation and open windows for academic research. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of disaggregated data consisting of all goods imports along with tariff concessions at two-digit Harmonized System (HS) code.


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