Estimation of age-stratified contact rates during the COVID-19 pandemic using a novel inference algorithm

Well parameterised epidemiological models including accurate representation of contacts, are fundamental to controlling epidemics. However, age-stratified contacts are typically estimated from pre-pandemic/peace-time surveys, even though interventions and public response likely alter contacts. Here we fit age-stratified models, including re-estimation of relative contact rates between age-classes, to public data describing the 2020-21 COVID-19 outbreak in England. This data includes age-stratified population size, cases, deaths, hospital admissions, and results from the Coronavirus Infection Survey (almost 9000 observations in all). Fitting stochastic compartmental models to such detailed data is extremely challenging, especially considering the large number of model parameters being estimated (over 150). An efficient new inference algorithm ABC-MBP combining existing Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology with model-based proposals (MBP) is applied. Modified contact rates are inferred alongside time-varying reproduction numbers that quantify changes in overall transmission due to pandemic response, and age-stratified proportions of asymptomatic cases, hospitalisation rates and deaths. These inferences are robust to a range of assumptions including the values of parameters that cannot be estimated from available data. ABC-MBP is shown to enable reliable joint analysis of complex epidemiological data yielding consistent parametrisation of dynamic transmission models that can inform data-driven public health policy and interventions.

The language of crisis: spatiotemporal effects of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics on health crisis communications by political leaders

In times of crisis, communication by leaders is essential for mobilizing an effective public response. During the COVID-19 pandemic, compliance with public health guidelines has been critical for the prevention of infections and deaths. We assembled a corpus of over 1500 pandemic-related speeches, containing over 4 million words, delivered by all 50 US state governors during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed the semantic, grammatical and linguistic-complexity properties of these speeches, and examined their relationships to COVID-19 case rates over space and time. We found that as COVID-19 cases rose, governors used stricter language to issue guidance, employed greater negation to defend their actions and highlight prevailing uncertainty, and used more extreme descriptive adjectives. As cases surged to their highest levels, governors used shorter words with fewer syllables. Investigating and understanding such characteristic responses to stress is important for improving effective public communication during major health crises.

A quantitative approach to the 2014 Mt. Ontake volcanic eruption news coverage: understanding the information gap and the public response to the anniversary coverage

This paper studies the news coverage of the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption disaster from 2015 to 2019, and the public response to the fifth anniversary coverage. Information on the issues regarding the risk of low-frequency disaster events such as volcanic eruption is brought into the public largely through the media. Unless there is a volcano nearby, there are few opportunities to discuss volcanic disaster prevention, and enhance volcanic risk perception. Therefore, the media agendas on volcanic risk are an indicator of what people know about volcanic disaster preparedness. This study quantitatively analyzed the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption reports of national, regional, and local newspapers to reveal their topic distributions. In addition, the anniversary gained intense public attention due to the large amount of media coverage. It was a significant opportunity for society to discuss volcanic risk. By observing people’s online responses to the anniversary coverage, a trend could be identified. We found a significant difference in media attention among the three newspaper types. The local newspaper covered four topics relating to volcanic risk in a well-balanced way, but the national and regional newspapers paid greater attention to one or two topics. Many online comments presented the view that a mountaineering should be done at individuals’ own risk, and volcano shelters would be ineffective for averting volcanic disasters. The anniversary coverage unintentionally contributes to stigmatizing or scapegoating a certain group, rather than promoting risk communication in the public sphere on the Web. With the onset of the information and communication information technology era, an online dialogue regarding disaster awareness and prevention is important. A volcano disaster risk communication strategy on the Web should be developed.

Estate, Capital and Province in the Alexander Potyomkin’s novel Man is canceled (2007)

The article analyzes the novel of the modern Russian writer A. Potyomkin Man is canceled (2007), which received a wide public response. The main idea of the work is the need for a radical change of the “mass man” of the turn of the XX-XXI centuries at the psychosomatic level. The ideological and compositional center is the specially built Rimushkino estate in the Oryol province, where the serf spirit of the Russian Empire at the turn of the XVIII-XIX centuries is reproduced. To answer the question of why the estate space of Russia is becoming the most representative field for anthropological experiments of the beginning of the XXI century, we consider the estate neo-myths of the Silver Age (the lost paradise on earth) and the Soviet period (the camp hell living in the mentality), as well as the imperial-colonial concept of the postmodern era (the estate as a frontier in the process of class-oriented internal colonization of the country). The multidimensional semiotics of the estate sets a new relationship between “metropolitan” and “provincial” concerning the other loci of the novel.

Carceral and Colonial Memory During Pandemic Times in the Philippines

#CommunityPantryPH is a mutual aid movement that began in the Philippines in April 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The movement is founded on the slogan ‘give what you can afford, take what you need.’ Instead of the movement receiving an overwhelming welcome, especially within conditions of food scarcity and health insecurity during the long-lasting pandemic, the Duterte government attacked volunteers with ‘red-tagging’ tactics—the malicious calling out of individuals as communists, which may result in harm both online and in real life to those red-tagged. The public response also circulated myths about the supposed indolence of Filipinos receiving aid and how the volunteers are fanning a culture of dependence among the poor. In this article, I introduce the concepts of ‘carceral memory’ and ‘colonial memory’ in understanding colonially inherited punitive, civilising, and self-deprecatory logics that have become embedded in postcolonial disciplinary regimes, and which suppress dissent and shape popular attitude and consciousness in the Global South.

Identification of vaccination experience and understanding of Indonesian society

This paper aims to identify the community's experience and understanding of the COVID-19 vaccination. The author believes that the success of the vaccination program, especially in cases of COVID-19, is closely related to understanding and experience. Therefore, search the data as scientific evidence in many publications. To obtain evidence that becomes the answer to the question of this study, examine it with a phenomenological approach, an attempt to dig up the broadest possible data to understand the problem of this research. This study fully uses secondary descriptive qualitative research data obtained through a database of electronic health journals assisted by a keyword search system. Our data review process involves a system review characterized by coding, data analysis, interpretation, and drawing conclusions based on data validation and reliability principles. Based on the evidence and discussion, can conclude that residents' experience in the COVID-19 vaccination program does not fully understand the Coronavirus. Vaccine candidates do not get help understanding vaccination from suitable sources. The daily rumors about COVID-19 have triggered a lack of public response in responding to all issues related to the pandemic. It is hoped that these findings can be used as review material for similar studies in the future.

On the Classification of Fake Information During the Coronavirus Pandemic

This article presents the classification of fakes on grounds of the information source that underlies the occurrence of false information. The study was perfomed on the coronavirus fakes that spread in Russian Federation in March 2020 during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in our country. For the analysis, only those fakes were taken, which the Administrations of the Russian regions promptly denied in their official accounts on social networks. Based on this, only those fakes that caused the greatest public response were selected for analysis. In this article, the following types of fakes are distinguished: folklore, symmetric, interpretive, additional, and conspiracy. Folklore fakes in various variations reproduce the same motives and are associated with well-established ideas and stereotypes in the mass consciousness. Symmetrical fakes partially or completely transfer true facts from one territory (country, region) to another. They can also transfer information from one person (structure) to another (s). Interpretative fakes are associated with the incorrect interpretation of events, information disseminated, or decisions made by the authorities by individual individuals. Additional fakes for a short period of time continue the theme of previously thrown disinformation. Conspiracy fakes are associated with conspiracy theory, characterized by stuffing on a wide territory and a large audience This classification is not exhaustive and can be supplemented as new fakes appear and are studied. Also, within the framework of this article, recommendations are given on how to refute a particular fake, depending on its belonging to a particular type.

Misinformation, Fears and Adherence to Preventive Measures during the Early Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study in Poland

The response to the pandemic requires access to accurate information and public understanding and adherence to preventive measures. This online cross-sectional study of adult Poles (n = 1337) assessed the frequency of COVID-19 preventive behaviors, fears related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and beliefs in COVID-19-related conspiracy theories during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic when the nationwide lockdown was imposed (April 2020). As shown, 22% of surveyed admitted not to wash their hands frequently, while 12% did not use disinfectants. These two behaviors were also less frequent in individuals with medical education. The highest levels of pandemic-related fears were associated with health loss in relatives, pandemic-induced economic crisis, and government using a pandemic to control citizens by the state. A significant share of surveyed individuals believed that the pandemic was intentional action to weaken non-Chinese economies (32%) or was deliberately induced for profits from selling vaccines (27%). Men, individuals with no children, and subjects with lower education were significantly less likely to adhere to sanitary measures (handwashing, disinfection, avoiding face touching, changes in greeting etiquette, face-covering when coughing or sneezing), and were less concerned over self and relatives’ health. At the same time, men were less prone than women to the conspiracy theories related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results indicate that adherence to sanitary measures during the pandemic can be a challenge also in developed countries, while misinformation campaigns (also concerning vaccines) have already affected the general public during the early phase of the epidemiological outbreak. The study provides observations that may be useful in the management of the public response to future epidemics.

Knowledge about Mental Health and Acceptance towards COVID-19 Vaccination in Adult Individuals of Ahmedabad

Background: The new Coronavirus disease (COVID19) emerging in China has quickly crossed borders, infected people around the world, and sparked a massive public response. Much attention has been paid to vaccination with COVID19 to control this circumstance. All of these kinds of stuff are led to a higher stratum of anxiety towards the COVID-19 vaccination Process in Adult individuals. Aims and Objective: To determine the knowledge about anxiety and acceptance towards COVID-19 vaccination in Adults individuals of Ahmedabad. Method: A cross-sectional study was carried out in adults in Ahmedabad. An online survey was carried out with a self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire contains specific questions about anxiety and acceptance of the Covid-19 vaccination. A total of 10 items are rated on a 5 - point Likert scale. In which 5 items were for the anxiety component and 5 items were for the acceptance component. The data analysis was carried out with Microsoft Excel 2019. Results: Our finding suggests that from 171 respondents 85(50%) of the adult individual were not anxious, 59(34%) were mild anxious, 24(14%) were Moderately anxious, 3(2%) were severely anxious towards the Covid-19 Vaccination process. 9(28%) adult individuals were ready to accept the Covid-19 vaccination process, 115(67%) were not sure, 47(5 %) of adult individuals were refused the Covid-19 Vaccination process. Conclusion: Half of the people were having mild to severe levels of anxiety towards the Covid-19 vaccination process and most of the people are not sure about the Covid-19 vaccination process. Key words: Anxiety, Acceptance, Covid-19 vaccination, Adult Individuals, Awareness.