Impunity will incentivise cyberattacks globally

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Saudi Aramco

Significance The hacking of emails of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair has touched off national discussion in the United States on Russia’s involvement and -- along with other high-profile cyberattacks believed to have been carried out by states such as those on Sony in 2014 and Saudi Aramco in 2012 -- have shone a spotlight on the complexity of attribution in cyberspace. Impacts Companies will increasingly find themselves in the crossfire of disputes between states. Governments will need to not only ramp up their country’s defences but also work with the private sector to ensure their cyber readiness. Societies may experience a challenge to democratic processes as states use cyber instruments to influence foreign elections.

Top powers race for artificially intelligent weapons

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reputational Risk ◽  
Waking Up

Subject Innovation in artificial intelligence-enabled defence systems outside the United States. Significance Besides the United States, China and Russia seek a geostrategic advantage through artificial intelligence(AI)-enabled defence. European governments are also waking up to the potential of such systems, but their efforts are splintered. Impacts The feverish pace of development in China suggests its defence systems may be unreliable or unsafe initially. Western researchers will be more bound by ethical barriers than their Russian and Chinese counterparts. Private sector responses will balance commercial gain and reputational risk.

China's economy may slow again later this year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Financial Regulations ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject The macroeconomic outlook for China. Significance Despite fears of a slowdown, China has kept up GDP growth of 6.8% year-on-year for three successive quarters. However, key measures of economic activity have weakened, and tensions are escalating with the United States over trade and technology. Impacts A swathe of new financial regulations and high-profile arrests will likely continue in 2018. Negotiations are likely to alleviate the immediate pressure from Washington, but underlying concerns over the tech sector will continue. A recently announced sweeping government reorganisation will be implemented, helping to tackle financial and environmental risks.

China’s role aids Egypt’s army more than the economy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Ability And Willingness

Significance China’s ability and willingness to build and finance mammoth initiatives of questionable national value has made it a convenient partner for President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi. Impacts Both sides will tout projects that reflect the personal visions of their leaders. Private-sector Egyptian companies will be crowded out of the market by military-led enterprises. Egypt’s main economic partners will remain GCC countries, Europe and the United States for the foreseeable future.

Colombian and Mexican extradition norms will diverge

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
National Pride ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Drug Lord ◽  
Prison Systems ◽  
High Level

Subject Sending high-level criminals to face incarceration in the United States is a perpetual source of controversy in both Colombia and Mexico. Significance The Colombian peace process has revived debate over extradition, raising questions of justice, sovereignty and national pride. Meanwhile, the escape of Sinaloa Cartel drug lord Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman from a Mexican high-security prison in July gave further weight to the arguments of those in Mexico advocating extradition to the United States. Impacts Prison systems and facilities are unlikely to improve significantly in the short-to-medium-term. Mexico will extradite more high-profile cartel members to the United States. Colombian paramilitaries are less likely to be extradited if implicated in human rights abuses. Colombian guerrillas will not be extradited.

Al-Shabaab's threat to Somalia's capital will persist

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Soft Targets

Significance This is the latest in a series of deadly terrorist attacks attributed to al-Shabaab since late July hitting high-profile targets in Mogadishu. The militant group is succeeding in carrying out these strikes as the country prepares for a political transition. Impacts The United States and other Western backers of the Somali government will step up security support to safeguard the elections. Al-Shabaab will accelerate complex attacks into November aimed at soft targets. The attacks will fail to disrupt upcoming indirect elections but could undermine confidence in security and the political process.

Tehran will flounder over COVID-19’s economic impact

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation

Significance Facing the region’s largest coronavirus outbreak, the authorities belatedly closed schools, banned all religious and social gatherings and asked people to stay indoors. However, since mid-April, they have loosened restrictions, reflecting the difficulties of the private sector as well as the government’s limited capacity to provide relief. Impacts The economic pressure from COVID-19 on top of sanctions may force Tehran to divert assets away from the conflict in Syria. Finance for operations in Iraq will be prioritised as a core Iranian interest as well as an arena to combat the United States. The central bank may be forced to print money to finance increased health spending and social security, risking extremely high inflation.

India-Russia ties will withstand external pressures

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Pressures ◽  
Complicating Factors ◽  
India And China

Significance The countries have historically had strong ties. However, Delhi’s growing partnership with Washington and burgeoning Moscow-Beijing relations are complicating factors, given the rivalry between Russia and the United States, and between India and China. Impacts Russia’s burgeoning ties with India’s enemy, Pakistan, will not undermine the Moscow-Delhi relationship. India’s private sector will remain reluctant to invest in Russia, fearing US sanctions. Delhi will over the next five years initiate 2+2 dialogues with individual ASEAN and EU members.

scholarly journals “The UK is not innocent”: Black Lives Matter, policing and abolition in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Joseph–Salisbury ◽  
Laura Connelly ◽  
Peninah Wangari-Jones
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Police Contact ◽  
Black Lives Matter ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Stop And Search ◽  
Do So

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to show that racism is not only a US problem. Rather, racism is endemic and pervasive in the UK context, manifesting at every level of policing. From stop and search, to deaths after police contact, the authors highlight long-standing and widespread racist disparities in UK policing. The authors therefore pierce through any delusions of UK “post-racialism” in order to show that, as protesters have reminded us, “the UK is not innocent”.Design/methodology/approachIn this piece, the authors reflect on the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020. Whilst the catalyst was the death of George Floyd in the United States, the authors explore what the protests mean in the UK context. To do so, the authors draw upon recent high-profile examples of police racism, before situating those events within a wider landscape of racist policing.FindingsDemonstrating that UK policing has to be understood as institutionally racist, the authors suggest that responses to police racism need to be radical and uncompromising – tweaks to the system are not enough. The authors therefore look towards defunding and abolition as ways in which one can begin to seek change.Originality/valueThe piece takes up the challenges set by this Black Lives Matter moment and offers a critical take on policing that seeks to push beyond reformism whilst also highlighting the realities of UK racism.

Trump’s Jerusalem move may undermine his Iran policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
International Law ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
State Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
East Jerusalem

Significance Previously, the United States, like the rest of the international community, had held that the question of Jerusalem's status was an issue for final-status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. After taking East Jerusalem in the 1967 war, Israel declared the whole city as its “indivisible” capital; however, its settlements there are not recognised under international law. Impacts A two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue will become even more unlikely. Trump's high-profile gesture will shore up the domestic position of the Israeli premier. Fears of Palestinian violence could put short-term pressure on Israel’s currency and stock market. Trump will cement his appeal to core supporters (further helped by the anger of ideological opponents).

Guaido risks losing steam amid Venezuela stalemate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Military ◽  
Change Efforts

Significance No high-profile figures have defected from the Maduro government, and the military remains resolutely behind the incumbent. In this situation of parallel authorities, the traction around ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido is losing momentum, with the opposition bid for power increasingly dependent on the United States to leverage change. Impacts Talks between Abrams and Rybakov will take place in a context of Russian opposition to regime change efforts. EU stances on Venezuela face possible fractures as a result of the stalemate there. Maduro’s announced cabinet reshuffle will not bring the “profound restructuring” he claims is needed.

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