Guaido risks losing steam amid Venezuela stalemate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Military ◽  
Change Efforts

Significance No high-profile figures have defected from the Maduro government, and the military remains resolutely behind the incumbent. In this situation of parallel authorities, the traction around ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido is losing momentum, with the opposition bid for power increasingly dependent on the United States to leverage change. Impacts Talks between Abrams and Rybakov will take place in a context of Russian opposition to regime change efforts. EU stances on Venezuela face possible fractures as a result of the stalemate there. Maduro’s announced cabinet reshuffle will not bring the “profound restructuring” he claims is needed.

Thai palace politics portends long-term risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sharp Criticism ◽  
Legal Controls ◽  
The Military

Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.

China's economy may slow again later this year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Financial Regulations ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject The macroeconomic outlook for China. Significance Despite fears of a slowdown, China has kept up GDP growth of 6.8% year-on-year for three successive quarters. However, key measures of economic activity have weakened, and tensions are escalating with the United States over trade and technology. Impacts A swathe of new financial regulations and high-profile arrests will likely continue in 2018. Negotiations are likely to alleviate the immediate pressure from Washington, but underlying concerns over the tech sector will continue. A recently announced sweeping government reorganisation will be implemented, helping to tackle financial and environmental risks.

Pressures may prompt leftist backlash in Venezuela

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Protest ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Domestic Fuel

Subject The outlook for political stability. Significance Arrests in an alleged coup plot, deepening tensions with the United States and street skirmishes marked the first anniversary of the February 12, 2014 riots. Nevertheless, there appears to be no recurrence of last year's upheavals, and the government has laid the ground for modest economic adjustments. The announcement of pending changes to the domestic fuel subsidy did not galvanise popular protest while the introduction of a free-floating exchange rate was well received by markets and bondholders. Impacts The muted response to renewed calls for regime change underscores negligible popular enthusiasm for violent exit solutions. US statements critical of the Maduro government further isolate Washington from regional sentiment. Although angered by recent US pronouncements, the Maduro government will persist with informal diplomatic overtures.

Colombian and Mexican extradition norms will diverge

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
National Pride ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Drug Lord ◽  
Prison Systems ◽  
High Level

Subject Sending high-level criminals to face incarceration in the United States is a perpetual source of controversy in both Colombia and Mexico. Significance The Colombian peace process has revived debate over extradition, raising questions of justice, sovereignty and national pride. Meanwhile, the escape of Sinaloa Cartel drug lord Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman from a Mexican high-security prison in July gave further weight to the arguments of those in Mexico advocating extradition to the United States. Impacts Prison systems and facilities are unlikely to improve significantly in the short-to-medium-term. Mexico will extradite more high-profile cartel members to the United States. Colombian paramilitaries are less likely to be extradited if implicated in human rights abuses. Colombian guerrillas will not be extradited.

Al-Shabaab's threat to Somalia's capital will persist

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Soft Targets

Significance This is the latest in a series of deadly terrorist attacks attributed to al-Shabaab since late July hitting high-profile targets in Mogadishu. The militant group is succeeding in carrying out these strikes as the country prepares for a political transition. Impacts The United States and other Western backers of the Somali government will step up security support to safeguard the elections. Al-Shabaab will accelerate complex attacks into November aimed at soft targets. The attacks will fail to disrupt upcoming indirect elections but could undermine confidence in security and the political process.

Impunity will incentivise cyberattacks globally

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Saudi Aramco

Significance The hacking of emails of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair has touched off national discussion in the United States on Russia’s involvement and -- along with other high-profile cyberattacks believed to have been carried out by states such as those on Sony in 2014 and Saudi Aramco in 2012 -- have shone a spotlight on the complexity of attribution in cyberspace. Impacts Companies will increasingly find themselves in the crossfire of disputes between states. Governments will need to not only ramp up their country’s defences but also work with the private sector to ensure their cyber readiness. Societies may experience a challenge to democratic processes as states use cyber instruments to influence foreign elections.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

scholarly journals “The UK is not innocent”: Black Lives Matter, policing and abolition in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Joseph–Salisbury ◽  
Laura Connelly ◽  
Peninah Wangari-Jones
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Police Contact ◽  
Black Lives Matter ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Stop And Search ◽  
Do So

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to show that racism is not only a US problem. Rather, racism is endemic and pervasive in the UK context, manifesting at every level of policing. From stop and search, to deaths after police contact, the authors highlight long-standing and widespread racist disparities in UK policing. The authors therefore pierce through any delusions of UK “post-racialism” in order to show that, as protesters have reminded us, “the UK is not innocent”.Design/methodology/approachIn this piece, the authors reflect on the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020. Whilst the catalyst was the death of George Floyd in the United States, the authors explore what the protests mean in the UK context. To do so, the authors draw upon recent high-profile examples of police racism, before situating those events within a wider landscape of racist policing.FindingsDemonstrating that UK policing has to be understood as institutionally racist, the authors suggest that responses to police racism need to be radical and uncompromising – tweaks to the system are not enough. The authors therefore look towards defunding and abolition as ways in which one can begin to seek change.Originality/valueThe piece takes up the challenges set by this Black Lives Matter moment and offers a critical take on policing that seeks to push beyond reformism whilst also highlighting the realities of UK racism.

Egyptian military build-up aims at officers’ loyalty

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
The Military ◽  
Weapons Systems

Significance Egypt has started to take delivery of an array of weapons systems, including advanced fighter aircraft and naval vessels, from Russia and France. These orders supplement equipment from the United States, which has been Egypt’s main source of weapons since the 1978 Camp David Accords. Amid an acute economic crisis, Cairo’s military procurement spree raises questions about regime motives. Impacts The rapidity of the military build-up may mean that the army will be unable to man the advanced weapons systems with qualified operators. Egypt is purchasing much of the military hardware on credit, which could further the decline of the struggling Egyptian economy. Egypt could use its newly acquired hardware to vie for regional power and influence with Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Trump’s Jerusalem move may undermine his Iran policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
International Law ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
State Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
East Jerusalem

Significance Previously, the United States, like the rest of the international community, had held that the question of Jerusalem's status was an issue for final-status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. After taking East Jerusalem in the 1967 war, Israel declared the whole city as its “indivisible” capital; however, its settlements there are not recognised under international law. Impacts A two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue will become even more unlikely. Trump's high-profile gesture will shore up the domestic position of the Israeli premier. Fears of Palestinian violence could put short-term pressure on Israel’s currency and stock market. Trump will cement his appeal to core supporters (further helped by the anger of ideological opponents).

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