China's economy may slow again later this year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Financial Regulations ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject The macroeconomic outlook for China. Significance Despite fears of a slowdown, China has kept up GDP growth of 6.8% year-on-year for three successive quarters. However, key measures of economic activity have weakened, and tensions are escalating with the United States over trade and technology. Impacts A swathe of new financial regulations and high-profile arrests will likely continue in 2018. Negotiations are likely to alleviate the immediate pressure from Washington, but underlying concerns over the tech sector will continue. A recently announced sweeping government reorganisation will be implemented, helping to tackle financial and environmental risks.

Colombian and Mexican extradition norms will diverge

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
National Pride ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Drug Lord ◽  
Prison Systems ◽  
High Level

Subject Sending high-level criminals to face incarceration in the United States is a perpetual source of controversy in both Colombia and Mexico. Significance The Colombian peace process has revived debate over extradition, raising questions of justice, sovereignty and national pride. Meanwhile, the escape of Sinaloa Cartel drug lord Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman from a Mexican high-security prison in July gave further weight to the arguments of those in Mexico advocating extradition to the United States. Impacts Prison systems and facilities are unlikely to improve significantly in the short-to-medium-term. Mexico will extradite more high-profile cartel members to the United States. Colombian paramilitaries are less likely to be extradited if implicated in human rights abuses. Colombian guerrillas will not be extradited.

Al-Shabaab's threat to Somalia's capital will persist

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Soft Targets

Significance This is the latest in a series of deadly terrorist attacks attributed to al-Shabaab since late July hitting high-profile targets in Mogadishu. The militant group is succeeding in carrying out these strikes as the country prepares for a political transition. Impacts The United States and other Western backers of the Somali government will step up security support to safeguard the elections. Al-Shabaab will accelerate complex attacks into November aimed at soft targets. The attacks will fail to disrupt upcoming indirect elections but could undermine confidence in security and the political process.

Impunity will incentivise cyberattacks globally

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Saudi Aramco

Significance The hacking of emails of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair has touched off national discussion in the United States on Russia’s involvement and -- along with other high-profile cyberattacks believed to have been carried out by states such as those on Sony in 2014 and Saudi Aramco in 2012 -- have shone a spotlight on the complexity of attribution in cyberspace. Impacts Companies will increasingly find themselves in the crossfire of disputes between states. Governments will need to not only ramp up their country’s defences but also work with the private sector to ensure their cyber readiness. Societies may experience a challenge to democratic processes as states use cyber instruments to influence foreign elections.

scholarly journals “The UK is not innocent”: Black Lives Matter, policing and abolition in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Joseph–Salisbury ◽  
Laura Connelly ◽  
Peninah Wangari-Jones
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Police Contact ◽  
Black Lives Matter ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Stop And Search ◽  
Do So

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to show that racism is not only a US problem. Rather, racism is endemic and pervasive in the UK context, manifesting at every level of policing. From stop and search, to deaths after police contact, the authors highlight long-standing and widespread racist disparities in UK policing. The authors therefore pierce through any delusions of UK “post-racialism” in order to show that, as protesters have reminded us, “the UK is not innocent”.Design/methodology/approachIn this piece, the authors reflect on the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020. Whilst the catalyst was the death of George Floyd in the United States, the authors explore what the protests mean in the UK context. To do so, the authors draw upon recent high-profile examples of police racism, before situating those events within a wider landscape of racist policing.FindingsDemonstrating that UK policing has to be understood as institutionally racist, the authors suggest that responses to police racism need to be radical and uncompromising – tweaks to the system are not enough. The authors therefore look towards defunding and abolition as ways in which one can begin to seek change.Originality/valueThe piece takes up the challenges set by this Black Lives Matter moment and offers a critical take on policing that seeks to push beyond reformism whilst also highlighting the realities of UK racism.

Trump’s Jerusalem move may undermine his Iran policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
International Law ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
State Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
East Jerusalem

Significance Previously, the United States, like the rest of the international community, had held that the question of Jerusalem's status was an issue for final-status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. After taking East Jerusalem in the 1967 war, Israel declared the whole city as its “indivisible” capital; however, its settlements there are not recognised under international law. Impacts A two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue will become even more unlikely. Trump's high-profile gesture will shore up the domestic position of the Israeli premier. Fears of Palestinian violence could put short-term pressure on Israel’s currency and stock market. Trump will cement his appeal to core supporters (further helped by the anger of ideological opponents).

Guaido risks losing steam amid Venezuela stalemate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Military ◽  
Change Efforts

Significance No high-profile figures have defected from the Maduro government, and the military remains resolutely behind the incumbent. In this situation of parallel authorities, the traction around ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido is losing momentum, with the opposition bid for power increasingly dependent on the United States to leverage change. Impacts Talks between Abrams and Rybakov will take place in a context of Russian opposition to regime change efforts. EU stances on Venezuela face possible fractures as a result of the stalemate there. Maduro’s announced cabinet reshuffle will not bring the “profound restructuring” he claims is needed.

Global monetary policy divergence will emerge in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China’S Economy

Significance Despite a less dovish than expected policy response on the part of the ECB on December 3, monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB is likely to heighten in 2016. While the euro remains up 3.3% against the dollar since December 2, prolonged policy divergence between the United States and the euro-area should underpin the dollar's strength. Impacts Fears about China's economy and the end of the commodity super-cycle will also shape market conditions in 2016. A recovery in productivity growth will allow monetary policy normalisation to proceed smoothly, boosting aggregate demand. A stronger dollar will help the ECB achieve its inflation goal, through a weaker euro. A stronger dollar will put further strain on EM assets, particularly in countries with large dollar-denominated corporate debt.

Weak Mexican peso may yet bring trade boost

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Clinton Administration ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
Close Integration

Subject Mexico's exchange rate and trade outlook. Significance In October, the IMF reduced its 2016 GDP growth forecast for Mexico from 2.5% to 2.1%. Relatively low growth in the United States, in addition to the plunge in oil prices from mid-2014, have triggered a contraction in trade. Previous trade slumps have hit the economy hard, given its degree of openness and its close integration with the United States. Impacts With oil prices having apparently found a floor, the peso should continue to recuperate from its recent lows. Neither the government nor the opposition is likely to advocate a surge of trade protectionism. Any NAFTA renegotiation, even under a Clinton administration, would probably reduce the scope of free trade within North America.

Prospects for the US economy in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2017. Significance In recent years, the United States has become accustomed to sub-par 2% GDP growth and sustained low inflation. However, following disappointing performance in 2016, the US economy is poised for a moderate rebound in growth in 2017.

Security crisis in Mozambique will worsen, for now

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Bilateral Donor

Significance Dhlakama insists that any talks must be mediated by international bodies. It follows the deployment of security forces in the capital Maputo late last month, amid fears that the current unrest could escalate and spread. Impacts Refugee outflows to Malawi will exacerbate resource constraints there, particularly of food given the regional drought. Low prices for exports such as coal and weak agricultural output will cut GDP growth to around 5.8% in 2016 from 6.3% last year. If the United States -- the largest bilateral donor -- joins other donors in suspending aid it would deepen the fiscal crisis. Nyusi will likely use his visit to China to ask for new loans to cover fiscal gaps, probably underpinned by resources guarantees.

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