Zambia's economic problems to persist as IMF beckons

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
State Involvement ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for an IMF programme. Significance Strong citizen demand for state involvement in the economy and widespread distrust of the IMF has undermined the willingness of President Edgar Lungu’s government to enter into a 1.2 billion-dollar bailout package. A meeting with the Fund in October concluded with the president saying that he needed more time to consult with domestic civil society groups and stakeholders about a proposed programme, which was likely to entail significant budget cuts. The subsequent November budget committed the government to increasing spending by 21% to 6.6 billion dollars. Impacts Heavy spending cuts are likely to prompt street protests -- especially if they trigger job losses. Negotiations with the IMF are likely to be strained and protracted, delaying economic recovery. Dropping costly capital infrastructure projects -- likely under any funding deal -- could see the PF’s popularity fall.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Controversy may mire Tanzania’s Stiegler’s Gorge Dam

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Unesco World Heritage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hydroelectric Project ◽  
Game Reserve ◽  
Construction Firm ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foundation Stone

Subject Tanzania's controversial hydroelectric project at Stiegler's Gorge. Significance President John Magufuli is championing the construction of a new mega-dam: the Stiegler’s Gorge Project. In October, Arab Contractors, an Egyptian construction firm with little hydropower experience, was announced as the dam’s builder, and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi was invited to lay the foundation stone. However, the project is also deeply controversial as Stiegler’s Gorge lies in the biodiverse heartland of the UNESCO World Heritage Selous Game Reserve. Impacts The dam is likely to face significant continued opposition from governments, academics and civil society groups. The government may choose to use the power for industrial purposes rather than to electrify the country and increase access for citizens. Tanzania’s lack of experience in delivering infrastructure projects on this scale and its history of corruption will elevate concerns.

Mozambique will face renewed transparency demands

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Internal Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Embattled FRELIMO. Significance The IMF said on April 18 that Mozambique’s debt-to-GDP ratio was expected to reach 130.3% in 2022. Reducing the country’s unsustainable debt depends on a resumption of donor aid and increased investment, but an impasse with international donors over undisclosed loans is undermining the prospects of both. Meanwhile, the ruling FRELIMO party and President Filipe Nyusi are under mounting internal pressure following a damaging by-election defeat and revelations regarding Nyusi’s role in the debt scandal. Impacts Economic growth will likely fall further until gas investments come onstream after 2023. Civil society criticism of the government will mount as further revelations emerge of state complicity in repression. Government finances will be further restricted as key recurring infrastructure investments are delayed, dampening growth prospects.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Skills Shortages

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Modi's regulatory crackdown on NGOs could backfire

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Perceived Ability ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government

Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.

Turkey involvement will deepen Syria conflict

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The proposed process would start with six months of negotiations aimed at setting up a transitional administration comprised of figures from the opposition, the government and civil society. The talks took place in the shadow of the Turkish incursion into Syria on August 24 and renewed fighting in much of the country. Impacts If the re-established siege of east Aleppo persists for several weeks, rebel forces could be forced to surrender control. Russia could agree with Turkey to confront ISG jointly while dictating the terms of a political agreement, reducing US influence. YPG will focus on defending its borders east of the Euphrates and not engage in further territorial gains against ISG or the FSA.

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