Mozambique will face renewed transparency demands

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Internal Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Embattled FRELIMO. Significance The IMF said on April 18 that Mozambique’s debt-to-GDP ratio was expected to reach 130.3% in 2022. Reducing the country’s unsustainable debt depends on a resumption of donor aid and increased investment, but an impasse with international donors over undisclosed loans is undermining the prospects of both. Meanwhile, the ruling FRELIMO party and President Filipe Nyusi are under mounting internal pressure following a damaging by-election defeat and revelations regarding Nyusi’s role in the debt scandal. Impacts Economic growth will likely fall further until gas investments come onstream after 2023. Civil society criticism of the government will mount as further revelations emerge of state complicity in repression. Government finances will be further restricted as key recurring infrastructure investments are delayed, dampening growth prospects.

Political uncertainty will deter investment in Fiji

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Populations ◽  
Regional Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

South Africa's banks could face further political push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Minister ◽  
Passenger Rail ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Mkhwebane's proposal that the SARB should promote broad-based economic growth, rather than focus on inflation and the currency, dominated debates ahead of the ANC's policy conference between June 30-July 5. Subsequently, the ruling party determined that the SARB should be nationalised, while re-affirming its constitutionally guaranteed independence and also demanding the government set up a state bank within six months. Impacts Damaging financial revelations at state-owned enterprises such as Eskom could undermine the impetus for a state-owned bank. Opposition parties could mobilise with civil society groups to try force Mkhwebane’s resignation. Ongoing corruption allegations surrounding the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) could implicate the deputy minister of finance.

Mozambican government could ease IMF fears over debt

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Capital Gains Tax ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Movement ◽  
Ongoing Controversy ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Significance As Mozambique’s government struggles to deal with an ongoing controversy over 2 billion dollars in secret loans and unpaid debts, the government hopes new gas investments and the prospects of a negotiated peace settlement with RENAMO show Maputo is turning a corner. However, the government must convince international donors that it can reorganise state finances and placate international bondholders, as it tries to secure new IMF financing later this year. Impacts Several debt-laden Mozambican banks could close if further outstanding payments are missed. New gas agreements will provide a capital gains tax windfall but not in the short term. A failure to push for judicial prosecutions of implicated ministers and state officials could prompt civil society protests. As FRELIMO’s popularity weakens further, support could increase for opposition parties RENAMO and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM).

Zambia's economic problems to persist as IMF beckons

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
State Involvement ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for an IMF programme. Significance Strong citizen demand for state involvement in the economy and widespread distrust of the IMF has undermined the willingness of President Edgar Lungu’s government to enter into a 1.2 billion-dollar bailout package. A meeting with the Fund in October concluded with the president saying that he needed more time to consult with domestic civil society groups and stakeholders about a proposed programme, which was likely to entail significant budget cuts. The subsequent November budget committed the government to increasing spending by 21% to 6.6 billion dollars. Impacts Heavy spending cuts are likely to prompt street protests -- especially if they trigger job losses. Negotiations with the IMF are likely to be strained and protracted, delaying economic recovery. Dropping costly capital infrastructure projects -- likely under any funding deal -- could see the PF’s popularity fall.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

Burundi's security outlook will remain fragile

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government

Significance The government denounced the attacks as acts of terrorism and claimed to have killed one assailant and arrested five others. However, no information has been released on the alleged perpetrators and no group has claimed responsibility. Impacts Although growth is recovering slightly, the government is unlikely to meet its (already modest) 2021/22 budgetary targets. To boost the economy, the president desperately needs the kind of stimulus that infrastructure investments can provide. Though official case numbers are low, a slow vaccine rollout means Burundi will remain at high risk of further COVID-19-related disruptions.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Does transportation infrastructure impact economic growth in India?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreenu Nenavath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Purpose This paper aims to show a long run and causal association between economic growth and transport infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors use ARDL models through the period 1990 – 2020 to investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in India. Findings The infrastructure has a positive impact on economic growth in India for the long run. Moreover, Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional relationship between transport infrastructure to economic development. Stimulatingly, the paper highlights the effect of air infrastructure statistically insignificant on economic growth in the long and short-run period. Originality/value The original outcome from the study delivers an inclusive depiction of determinants of economic growth from transport infrastructure in India, and these findings will help the policymakers to frame policies to improve the transport infrastructure. Hence, it is proposed that the government of Indian should focus more to upsurge the transport infrastructure for higher economic development.

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