Commercial drilling for Somali oil is years away

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Operating Environment ◽  
Maritime Piracy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Field ◽  
Southwest Coast ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Regional Authority ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject Somalia's oil sector. Significance Somalia plans to hold a licensing round for permits off its southwest coast this year; the blocks to be offered in 2017 are not yet delineated. While the acreage to be offered will likely prove uncontentious, the auction will highlight tensions and uncertainties as the federal government seeks to establish its federal and regional authority. Firms looking to enter the nascent sector may confront a difficult operating environment. Impacts Operating in Somalia will require managing high reputational and practical risks, including security. Maritime piracy has diminished, but oil developments could spur new forms of insecurity, including from al-Shabaab. Large-scale corruption could prove more damaging compared to other states given Somalia's minimal track record in the energy field.

Gang wars risk wider violence in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prison Population ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Violence ◽  
Criminal Groups

Subject Gang wars and violence risk. Significance Brazil's two largest criminal groups appear to have entered an uneasy truce, after a 'declaration of war' in September that broke a 23-year alliance. The breakdown in relations has gradually escalated into violence inside Brazil's prisons, where leaders of organised criminal factions still coordinate their transnational empires, and risks increased urban armed violence. Impacts The gang war has added urgency to the nationwide security plan being drafted by the federal government. Some changes in the criminal justice system are expected in order to reduce the prison population. Both groups have shown appetite, in the recent past, for large-scale and highly disruptive attacks, and spill-over is likely.

Pemex business plan draws scepticism in Mexico

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Business Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Insurmountable Obstacle ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Substantial Drop

Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.

Market conditions will shape Tanzanian gas exports

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Operating Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
International Power ◽  
Regional Projects

Significance Tanzania has high hopes for developing offshore gas reserves, but a combination of oversupply in global markets and a difficult domestic operating environment has lowered investors' interest. Prospects are better for the domestic gas market, but international power developers are cautious about dealing with President John Magufuli's government. Impacts Shortcomings in high-profile LNG developments will damage investor confidence in other large-scale investments. Faltering confidence could threaten financing for regional projects such as an oil pipeline from Uganda or a planned railway. Further delays in gas development carry greater consequences for Tanzania than Shell and Statoil, which can prioritise other projects.

Reforming Nigeria's oil sector will have mixed success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The World ◽  
African Development Bank ◽  
Oil Sector

Significance Revelations by an investigative commission that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) withheld 25 billion dollars from the federal government between 2011 and 2015 will add urgency to the proceedings. Impacts Concessional loans from the World Bank, African Development Bank and China Exim Bank may fund Nigeria's 'stimulus' budget. Low oil prices will constrain economic growth -- expected to be 4.6%, well below the 6.8% average during the decade ending 2014. The central bank's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 12% (a full percentage point increase) will dampen consumer demand.

Angolan construction rebound could prove elusive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Credit Lines ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Water Port ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject Angola construction sector downturn. Significance Between 2004 and 2014, an economic boom attracted large-scale, state-subsidised investments in housing and infrastructure. Since the oil price downturn, Angola has suffered a construction slowdown as the state finds itself unable to pay service providers and import materials. Projects that have survived are those with attached political interests or money already guaranteed by existing oil credit lines, creating considerable uncertainty over future investment potential. Impacts Large-scale projects, such as the new Cabinda deep-water port, risk being undermined by political influence. Private-sector investment in low-cost housing, water and electricity initiatives could increase. Public-private partnerships in the non-oil sector are likely to grow.

Iraqi oil output capacity could reach record levels

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Domestic Power ◽  
Gas Supply

Significance Some significant field development projects are moving ahead in 2018, especially in Kirkuk. There are further plans to award new exploration and development deals, as well as to develop additional pipeline capacity. Impacts Higher exports and a solid oil price will boost federal government revenues. The oil sector will face continued structural problems and political challenges, despite growth in capacity. Iraq’s rising production capacity will strain its already-weak adherence to the OPEC agreement. Gas supply boosts could free for export oil currently used for domestic power generation.

Nigeria's COVID-19 response at risk from weak links

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Succession Planning ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
Government Capacity ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Nigeria's COVID-19 response. Significance The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Nigeria with a triple blow: the collapse of the oil price, on which just under half of government revenues rely; the domestic outbreak of COVID-19, which has immobilised the economy outside the oil sector; and a political hiatus exposing how federal government capacity has been hollowed out. Impacts The oil price crash will hasten a move away from reliance on the sector, but the initial adjustment will be painful. The death of Buhari’s influential chief of staff will complicate ruling party succession planning. Despite opportunities for abuses and graft during the lockdowns, the security forces' performance has been viewed as relatively effective.

Prices, politics slow Somalia's oil sector development

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Competitive Bidding ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Statement ◽  
Force Majeure ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Security Concerns ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance UK-based Soma Oil & Gas has completed seismic data for offshore Somalia and stands ready to apply for exploration rights, according to an official statement. The federal government in Mogadishu is keen to acquire more data and hold a competitive bidding round, but is struggling to complete its hydrocarbons framework. Industry optimism two years ago has dissipated: the low oil price compounds existing security concerns. The most active explorer, Horn Petroleum, has suspended activities after drilling two wells in Puntland. Majors are in no rush to reclaim Somali acreage in force majeure since 1991. Impacts The prospect of difficult negotiations with Mogadishu clouds the outlook for exploration in Somaliland, which has granted its own licences. Security concerns will prevent exploration by companies that have taken acreage in Somaliland, Puntland and elsewhere in Somalia. An unresolved maritime border dispute with Kenya compounds uncertainty for some of the more promising offshore fields in the south.

Malaysia’s opposition is battling pre-poll constraints

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Water Crisis ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Organisation

Significance The poll will see the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, led by Prime Minister Najib Razak’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), face a challenge from the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, featuring former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s Malaysian United Indigenous Party (PPBM) and Anwar Ibrahim’s People’s Justice Party (PKR). Impacts The dissolution of the PPBM or broader PH could result in large-scale street protests. Malaysia’s current levels of GDP growth are not enough to ease cost-of-living pressures, potentially hurting the BN. Selangor’s water crisis will not lead to agreement with the federal government over ownership of water assets.

Improving Nigerian oil fortunes is crucial to rebound

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject Nigeria oil outlook.. Significance Growth in the first quarter of 2019 slowed to 2.1% of GDP, down from 2.38% in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last month. This slowdown was in large part due to contraction in the oil sector of 2.4%, even though production was higher than the preceding quarter. As the federal government struggles to overcome its fiscal crisis, the oil sector’s fortunes are crucial to short-to-medium term recovery. Impacts As its revenue challenges mount, the presidency will likely grow increasingly interventionist in the oil sector, deterring investors. Presidency plans to restart contested production in Ogoniland presents long-term risks amid local tensions and environmentalist opposition. While oil theft is receiving more attention, attempts to curb it may affect fragile Niger Delta peace dynamics.

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