Demonetisation deepens 2017-18 Indian budget woes

Subject Outlook for the Indian economy and the budget for the April 2016-March 2017 financial year. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has decided to bring forward the annual budget presentation by a month, from the last working day of February to the first. The government claims the move is aimed at revealing well in advance the revenue-raising measures and expenditure allocations to be adopted in the 2017-18 fiscal year starting April 1. Impacts The 2016-17 divestment and privatisation revenue targets are unlikely to be met. Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax is likely to be delayed beyond the finance ministry's July 2017 target. This will further reduce tax collection potential in the next fiscal year.

Subject The political crises facing the government. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak faces his worst array of political crises to date. These include alleged mismanagement of one of Malaysia's sovereign wealth funds, controversial tightening of security legislation and the potentially inflationary implementation of a goods and services tax. Personal criticism by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad compounds these difficulties, although the leadership of Najib's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has rallied around him. Impacts If Najib's political position worsens, pressure will grow within UMNO to replace him. By-elections in May will be bellwethers for public perceptions of the opposition and governing coalition's popularity. The 'hudud' controversy could split the opposition coalition during parliament's next session.


Subject Outlook for India's economy following the 2020/21 budget. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government estimates that GDP growth for fiscal year 2019/20 (April-March) will be 5.0%, the lowest full-year rate in eleven years. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman earlier this month presented a budget for 2020/21 and said growth would pick up to 6.0-6.5% in that year. Impacts Further widening of the fiscal deficit could prompt credit rating agencies to downgrade India’s outlook. Some states may try to reclaim powers of taxation that they surrendered when the Modi government introduced the Goods and Services Tax. Modi will double down on efforts to promote the ‘Make in India’ initiative, which is designed to increase domestic manufacturing.


Subject Prime Minister Narendra Modi's governance style and its consequences. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to 'demonetise' the Indian economy draws attention to his highly centralised and personalised style of rule. Few members of his cabinet were reportedly informed in advance and the strategy was planned with just a handful of trusted advisers. This reflects the model that he developed while chief minister of Gujarat and that he has continued as federal prime minister. Impacts Excessive centralisation of power will diminish inter-state cooperation, which is key for reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax. A judicial-executive tussle will increase regulatory uncertainty. Tensions within Modi's party would affect its chances in 2019 national polls.


Subject Egypt's budget deficit woes. Significance President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has approved the budget for the 2015-16 fiscal year (July-June) after insisting that the deficit target be reduced from 9.9% of GDP to 8.9%. Reducing the budget deficit to a sustainable level over the next three to four years is a key government objective. However, finance ministry efforts to develop new revenue streams and trim expenditure have so far met resistance. Impacts If the government does resort to the IMF, it will face pressure for more resolute measures to cut the deficit and to devalue the pound. After the success of its first international bond issue, the government is likely to return to the markets later this year. The finance ministry wants to introduce VAT for goods and services, but will face pressure from business to limit its scope.


Significance Meanwhile, the government is under pressure to raise expenditure to help ease the pandemic-related economic crisis. Delhi is reluctant to borrow more, as an increase in public debt could hurt its sovereign rating. Impacts India will struggle to avoid a heavy GDP contraction this fiscal year. In the medium term, some states may try to reclaim the powers of taxation they surrendered through the Goods and Services Tax. The government will count on market liberalisation to spur post-pandemic economic recovery.


Author(s):  
S. Hasnain Pasha ◽  
Deepti Mehrotra ◽  
Jerry Chun-Wei Lin ◽  
Gautam Srivastava

In 2017, the Government of India launched the goods and services tax (GST), referred to as “one tax, one nation, one market”. This tax all Indian businesses are subject to this tax. GST was framed with the objective of bringing tax handling for all businesses onto a single platform and developing a transparent and effective system in which all businesses will pay taxes. This paper identifies and addresses GST implementation challenges and proposes a solution, GSTChain, using blockchain network technology. Currently, GST is collected at the sellers end and bifurcated between the Indian state and central governments. GSTChain is a blockchain system based on trust and autonomy with the objective of making taxpayers’ lives easy and tax collection efficient and transparent for the government.


Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.


Significance The five-party coalition enters office at a time of intense economic and social uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising debt and soaring energy prices. Prime Minister Petr Fiala's greatest challenges involve negotiating between the five coalition partners and restoring respectability to Czech politics. Impacts The new government will be less sceptical about closer EU integration, given the upcoming Czech EU presidency from mid-2022. The government will try to reopen EU Green Deal chapters to renegotiate compensation for highly industrialised member states. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis may run for president in 2023. Babis will strive to avoid losing parliamentary immunity from prosecution relating to the Stork’s Nest affair and alleged EU subsidy fraud.


Significance This continues the policy preference -- out of line with Poland’s peers -- for indirect taxes on goods and services, including a relatively high value-added tax (VAT) rate. The government says the sugar tax aims to curb rising obesity, but critics suspect it is a new way of raising revenue. Impacts Corporate taxes could be raised as an alternative source of revenue. Left unaddressed, the regressive trend in taxes and rising inequality may create an opening for the leftist Spring and Together parties. If UK taxes rise post-pandemic, the relative fall in disposable income could encourage Polish immigrants to return to Poland.


Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.


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