East African unity will prove elusive

Significance Earlier in February, Tanzanian President John Magufuli met with his Ugandan counterpart, Yoweri Museveni, on the sidelines of an African Union (AU) summit to discuss reviving the EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EAC, a contentious trade agreement dividing EAC members. Failure to agree on the trade deal is indicative of a broader trend, which has recently seen various initiatives aimed at deepening regional integration stall. Impacts Absent the EPA, Kenya will look to strike a bilateral trade deal with the EU. A collapse of the East Africa EPA increases the likelihood that the EU’s other major EPA in West Africa could succeed. Weak regional unity will complicate efforts to develop common responses to shared security threats.

Subject Burundian peace efforts. Significance On May 25, efforts to renew the Inter-Burundian Dialogue (IBD) ended in failure after chairperson Benjamin Mkapa, former president of Tanzania, refused to allow several high-profile Burundian civil society leaders to take part. The decision is the latest reason why opposition groups believe Mkapa should be removed from his position. Meanwhile, current Tanzanian President John Magufuli has argued that members of the East African Community (EAC) should refuse to back the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU until sanctions against Burundi are scrapped. Impacts President Pierre Nkurunziza may further purge the security services of ‘disloyal’ officers. Armed opposition groups based in the DRC will pose an increasing security threat. The ongoing crisis will hinder Bujumbura’s ability to respond to food and fuel shortages. The ruling party’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure, may intensify both violent actions and rhetoric.


Subject Implications if the EU and EAC fail to finalise a proposed trade deal. Significance Kenya is urging its East African Community (EAC) counterparts to resolve an impasse in signing an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU. The EPA was initialled by all parties in October 2014 and was due to be signed in July, but in the wake of 'Brexit', Tanzania and Uganda announced that they would not sign the EPA until further discussions and investigation had taken place. The countries have until October 1 to sign the agreement, otherwise existing trade deals with the EU will lapse. Impacts A collapse of the EPA process will weaken the EAC customs union, as member states will lack a common external tariff. Kenyan exporting firms could relocate to neighbouring states if access to EU markets is threatened. Without steps toward resolving Burundi's political crisis, the EU could withhold finalising any deal that affords benefits to Bujumbura.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Giselle Bosse ◽  
Moritz Höpner ◽  
Alena Vieira

Abstract In bilateral relations and negotiations with the European Union (EU), smaller and economically weaker states are often unable to express their national preferences. Despite their limited bargaining power, however, some Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries obtained significant concessions from the EU. This article analyzes the factors that explain EaP states’ unexpected negotiation success in the context of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with Ukraine, the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Armenia, and enhanced economic partnership with Belarus. We identify negotiation strategies that are crucial to understanding of the puzzle.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-246
Author(s):  
Francis Ejones

This study examines the postulation that trade liberalization (regional integration) policies of LDCs normally undermine their presumed impact. The study is based on the experience of EAC trade agreement. It adopts the extended gravity model, to analyze the impact of this regional integration on food item. The model includes 168 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1988 – 2009. The Poisson estimation method took into account unobserved trade data characteristics of the bilateral trade relations. The results show that regional trade integration increased exports, normally at the expense of exports and welfare of non-members, and these exports were more reflective of food exports growth. The same has not been true for intra-bloc exports of food although the sector experienced an increase in exports resulting from the implementation of a trade agreement. The intra-bloc results are consistent with the structural rigidities of the exporting EAC Countries.    


Subject Outlook for Kenyan-Tanzanian relations. Significance The Kenyan and Tanzanian governments in early September continued disagreements over a trade agreement with the EU. The deteriorating relationship comes at a time when the stability of the East African Community (EAC) is already strained by other crises. Impacts Attempts to forge bilateral agreements within the bloc or with non-EAC states could cast doubt on the EAC's future. Uncertainty over the long-term future of the EAC will worry investors and could reduce investment. Tensions lower the probability of instating a common currency in East Africa by 2024. Domestic political pressures could push Kenyan and Tanzanian leaders to demonise each other as a distraction.


Subject The revival of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance US President Donald Trump in January announced Washington's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP), bringing its implementation to a standstill. Without US participation, the TPP looked dead, since the US economy is larger than the other eleven economies combined. Nevertheless, after months of uncertainty, the project was revived by the eleven members under the leadership of Japan. Impacts Failure or watering down of a TPP-11 would leave China a greater role in setting global standards and norms. Progress towards the TPP-11 could speed up the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and EU-Japan economic partnership agreement. Other states will seek TPP membership in the future, with Taipei and Seoul likely candidates.


Subject India-EU relationship. Significance During a visit to India visit last month, German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged renewed attempts to negotiate an India-EU free trade agreement (FTA). In recent years, Delhi and the EU have sought to strengthen bilateral relations, building on long-standing trade ties. The EU in November 2018 published a new strategy to increase strategic cooperation with India. Impacts India will step up dialogue with Germany, its main link to the EU post-Brexit. Delhi and Brussels will increase cooperation with Tokyo to develop infrastructure in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. EU-China relations will be strained, but bilateral trade will grow.


2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 59-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Bacon ◽  
Emi Kato

AbstractThis article focuses on two of the three pillars of the ‘EU through the Eyes of Asia’ perceptions project, and analyzes the Japanese print media and elite interviews. We focus on two issues: the first of these is exasperation at the slow progress towards an EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement/Economic Partnership Agreement (FTA/EPA). This exasperation is clearest in the Japanese elite interviews, but the trade negotiations also feature significantly in discussions in the Japanese print media. The second issue is the consistent perception of the EU as a significant normative and diplomatic power, and a leader on human rights promotion, with this perception strongly evident in both the Japanese print media and elite interviews. Overall, the EU was perceived positively as a political actor, and, in a boost for post-Lisbon perceptions of the EU, High Representative Catherine Ashton had a generally high and somewhat positive profile in Japan. This came across more strongly in the print media rather than the elite interviews. In a much-quoted speech given in Japan in 2006, Commission President José Manuel Barroso talked of the untapped trade potential within EU-Japan relations, and the normative power of the EU and Japan. A focus on perceptions helps to inform us about the global importance of the EU and how this is being interpreted outside of Europe. To understand the European Union itself we need to have an external reflection in order to interpret its meaning. Through our study, we hope to highlight and communicate the fact that the Barroso perspective is shared by many within Japan.


2021 ◽  
pp. 002088172110023
Author(s):  
Noriko Suzuki

In the context of globalization, the Japanese government emphasizes the importance of reinforcing the free trade system. Due to European Union’s (EU) reluctance, the free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations between Japan and the EU took 4 years to conclude. However, Brexit prompted the conclusion of Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU as to maintain the economic interests of both sides after the British exit from the EU. The UK wants to maintain economic relations with Japan and to become a ‘Global Britain’ in the post-Brexit era. This article analyses both Japan–EU and Japan–UK FTAs. The core of the article looks at the impact of Brexit on Japan’s access to the European single market through a review of Japanese sectors and large corporations, particularly the automobile industry.


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