Italy’s Renzi will win weak endorsement in party vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Although former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is confident of winning, the PD, condemned after the 2013 general election to govern Italy without a majority, has faced growing problems of cohesion and electoral credibility since last December’s referendum defeat. Impacts Local elections in June will indicate electoral sentiment towards the PD and M5S ahead of the general election in early 2018. Continued weak economic performance is fuelling populist sentiment and tying government hands. Tensions with the EU could increase when the government presents its 2018 budget later this year.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

Russia will seek influence in Moldova's Gagauz region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
European Parties ◽  
Potential Pressure ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, the June 14 local elections resulted overall in the pro-European parties winning 56.5%, with the pro-Russians securing 31.5%. The result will be a relief for the pro-European camp, which had feared that the ongoing banking scandal -- which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing and the resignation on June 12 of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici -- could portend an upsurge in support for pro-Russian groups. However, despite the pro-European win, Moldova's Gagauz region remains one of Russia's strongest supporters and will remain a potential pressure point. Impacts Russia's enduring prominence in Gagauzia's political landscape will give Moscow a foothold in Moldovan politics. Russia's interest in Moldovan politics will prompt Moldovan supporters of European integration to speed up that process. The EU will have to continue to support Moldova's economy, if only to match Russia's economic support for Gagauzia.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

May is unlikely to form a majority for her Brexit plan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Significance The rocky passage of both has laid out Prime Minister Theresa May’s key Brexit dilemma: she will struggle to secure a majority in the House of Commons for her eventual deal with the EU. Impacts The parliamentary victories have secured May's short-term future. There is a majority against no deal in parliament; its likelihood depends on whether MPs can find a route to assert this majority. The likelihood of other outcomes, such as a general election or a further referendum on EU membership before March 29, 2019, has increased.

India’s Naxalite threat is much reduced

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Poll ◽  
The Government

Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.

Albanian crisis will hold off reform needed for EU

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Abroad ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Battle

Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.

UK corruption scandal opens door for the opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
The Eu

Significance These scandals are serious for the government because they reflect poorly on dozens of Conservative MPs as well as Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In addition to undermining the government’s public support, they have also damaged Johnson’s support among party colleagues. Impacts Anger towards the government could grow in poorer regions as tax rises and spending cuts are gradually introduced. The persistence of corruption stories threatens to further damage the United Kingdom’s international reputation. Domestic pressures and ‘Brexit fatigue’ may ultimately prevent London from triggering a trade war with the EU.

Exit talks may not clarify future UK-EU relationship

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May has committed herself to triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. No member state has made use of Article 50 and there is thus much uncertainty about what leaving and, more specifically, triggering Article 50 might involve. Impacts May's timetable could be derailed if the Supreme Court decides that the government cannot invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval. The EU is likely to maintain its firm stance and refuse to engage in any negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. The continued uncertainty over the terms of Brexit is likely to hit business confidence and could deter investments.

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