Thai junta deepens repression amid king's challenge

Significance Interim Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha's government has already retained power for twice the length of the usual time between a coup and return to elected government, compared to recent military regimes (1991-92 and 2006-07). If elections are held in late 2018 as currently planned, it will be three times that length. Impacts Foreign social media firms such as Facebook will likely slow plans to expand their Thai operations. Bangkok will do what it can to keep both Washington and Beijing on side. Restrictions on the activities of journalists and rights activists are tightening.

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-38
Author(s):  
Susan White

Synopsis Groupon, an online coupon company, was one of many companies that considered an initial public offering (IPO) during what might be a second technology/internet/social media IPO boom in 2011. Some companies chose to postpone their IPOs, while others took advantage of the media attention focussed on technology companies, and in particular, social media firms. Should investors hop on the tech IPO bandwagon, or hold off to better evaluate the long-term prospects of tech companies, and in particular social media companies? Would the valuation of Groupon justify an investment in IPO shares? Research methodology The case was researched from secondary sources, using Groupon's IPO filing information, news articles about the IPO and industry research sources, such as IBIS World. Relevant courses and levels This case is appropriate for an advanced undergraduate or MBA corporate finance or investment elective. Most introductory finance classes do not have the time to cover later chapters in a finance textbook, where information about IPOs is generally found. It could also be used at the end of a core finance course, where the instructor wanted to introduce this topic through a case study of a hard-to-value internet-based company to illustrate the difficulties in setting IPO prices. The case could also be used in an equity analysis class, an entrepreneurial finance class or an investment class, to spur discussion about valuing an internet company and choosing appropriate investments for pension fund investing. This case could also be used in a strategy class, focussing on the five forces question, and eliminating the valuation question. Theoretical basis There is a great deal of literature about IPOs and their long-term performance. An excellent source is Jay R. Ritter's research, http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter, which has a longer time period and more data than could be contained in this case. IPO puzzles include persistent undervaluing of IPOs; in other words, the offer price is lower than, and sometimes substantially lower than, the first day close price. A second issue is the generally poorer long-run performance of companies after their IPO when compared to similar firms that did not do an IPO.


Subject Election meddling. Significance With elections due in the EU, Canada and Australia in 2019 and the United States next year, social media firms have made significant efforts to prevent further misuse of their platforms. These efforts are likely to be effective, and manipulation of the kind attempted between 2016 and 2018 will not re-occur. However, the nature of the adversary has changed. The platforms are at risk of preparing to re-fight yesterday’s battles. Impacts Containing the spread of harmful content via fringe platforms is a significant regulatory challenge. Governments may increase their reliance on offensive cybersecurity campaigns to contain foreign interference. Increased privacy on Facebook will make policing fake content harder as the platform will have restricted access to user content.


Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.


Significance The bill will move to the Senate, where Republicans fear it over-reaches into states’ powers to manage elections. The standoff takes place within the context of the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, in which Russians interfered via informational techniques and social media. The bill is designed to prevent another such occurrence, but the ability for actors to manipulate election results is more far-reaching than the methods addressed in this bill. Impacts The bill would authorise federal money annually to improve and maintain states’ election systems. Social media firms will face more government and public pressure to prevent foreign election interference via their platforms. Social media firms will find it difficult to police their platforms without increasing editorial control.


Headline ASEAN/INDONESIA: Terrorism could hit social media


Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu suggested that Israel could seek to take the PA to the ICC over its reconciliation agreement with the "war criminals" of Hamas. Alongside the diplomatic stage, Israel and the Palestinians are increasingly playing out their battle for international legitimacy on the internet. This confrontation escalated during the conflict between Israel and Hamas in July and August 2014, with both sides and their supporters investing heavily in social media efforts to disseminate their messages and win support for their narratives. Impacts Israel's slick English-language social media operations will ensure its message is frequently picked up in the Western media. However, Hamas's social media emphasis on civilian casualties will also resonate increasingly widely in Western media. As bilateral relations with the EU deteriorate, Israel will step up its efforts on European social media platforms to boost its legitimacy.


Subject Anti-Dalit violence -- and its impact on politics and Modi's prospects. Significance Cow protection vigilante groups connected with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have carried out a slew of violent attacks against Dalits (low castes) in recent months, the latest in Modi's home-state of Gujarat in July. Clumsy handling of the attacks has provoked a backlash on the streets and in parliament, forcing Modi into a public condemnation of these vigilantes and the ouster of Gujarat's BJP Chief Minister Anandi Patel. Impacts Reducing caste discrimination is key to promoting truly inclusive development in India. Losing the Dalit vote-base would harm the BJP's prospects in the 2019 national elections. Anti-Dalit atrocities, now widely publicised through social media, damage India's reputation among investors.


Significance Proposed measures include a plan outlined by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in September, wherein the EU would oblige technology firms to remove terrorist and extremist content within one hour of being notified by the authorities or face fines of up to 4% of their annual turnover. Impacts Social media firms will invest more in automated filters -- regardless of their drawbacks. Removing extremist online content may impair law enforcement work by limiting their access to relevant materials and networks. Terrorist and extremist outfits will adapt to evade filters.


Subject Falsehoods on social media Significance Recent reports that Russia is continuing its attempts to meddle with the 2020 US presidential elections has once again spotlighted efforts by social media firms to tackle the circulation of falsehoods on their platforms. Impacts Major geopolitical events, such as US elections, remain the primary focus of large disinformation campaigns by state-linked adversaries. The use of images, videos and fringe platforms will make tackling disinformation harder. Small changes to how social platforms work will prove ineffective.


Significance Facebook has indefinitely suspended Trump from its main platform and Instagram, while Twitter has done so permanently for his role in instigating violence at US Capitol Hill on January 6. These developments spotlight the role of social media firms in spreading and tackling hate speech and disinformation, and their power unilaterally to shut down public speech. Impacts Democratic control of the White House and Congress offers social media companies a two-year window to ensure softer regulation. The EU will push its new digital markets legislation with vigour following the events at US Capitol Hill. Hard-right social media will find new firms willing to host their servers, partly because their user numbers run to millions not billions.


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