Trump will deprioritise banking reform despite talk

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Banking Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Compliance Requirements

Subject President Donald Trump and banking reform. Significance President Donald Trump attacked Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton ahead of the November 2016 election over her paid speaking appearances at Wall Street financial institutions before her second presidential run. Although he has appointed several former bankers to administration positions and advanced a deregulatory agenda as president, as a candidate Trump criticised big banks and proposed restoring the Glass-Steagall rule separating commercial and investment banking in the 1933 US Banking Act, enacted during the Great Depression but repealed in 1999. The idea has gained some traction in Congress and Trump called for a “21st century version” of Glass-Steagall in a May 1 interview. Impacts When the Fed normalises interest rates, it will help US banks’ profitability when combined with less-stringent compliance requirements. Stricter stances on financial regulation are likely to be an ideological litmus test for Democratic candidates seeking nomination. Finance-friendly appointments to and legislative restrictions on federal agencies will curtail Washington’s regulatory power.

Broad US financial deregulation is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Banking Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Deregulation ◽  
Banking Activity ◽  
The Us ◽  
Step Down

Subject Outlook for US financial regulation. Significance Richard Cordray will step down as the head of the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau at the end of the month. Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, a harsh critic of the consumer watchdog, is the front-runner to replace him, possibly as acting head as that would avoid the need for Senate confirmation. President Donald Trump and Republican congressional leaders are keen to remove what they see as burdensome post-2008 regulation of financial services, but legislative change is proving difficult, so Trump is using appointments and executive powers to advance a deregulatory agenda. Impacts Global monetary policy divergence is both a bigger threat and opportunity for financial markets than US banking reform. The divergence in US regulatory direction from that of international regulators may cause even minor US reforms to have outsized effects. Some US banks will see higher profitability, albeit in line with higher riskiness, but the overall impact on banking activity will be minor. More repatriation of US banking activity will impact London’s financial markets, and the outflow could be exacerbated by Brexit uncertainty.

Trump wins as US Democrats wait in Iowa

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Democratic Candidate

Significance Iowa’s caucuses are the first contests in the race to win a party’s presidential nomination; in 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, so the Iowa caucuses on this occasion matter more for the Democrats. The last four Democratic presidential nominees won in Iowa, and no eventual nominee has finished lower than fourth there. However, this year’s campaign may be different, as the share of the vote gained by the leading candidates was likely low and clustered. Impacts Super Tuesday, when 14 states hold primaries, will winnow the Democratic candidate field further. There will be calls for Iowa to change its caucus system partly or fully by January 2024. President Donald Trump’s strong victory in Iowa’s Republican caucuses will further strengthen his capture of the party.

Prospects for US politics to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2017. Significance The shock 2016 election outcome brought President Donald Trump to the White House, with a conservative-leaning majority on the Supreme Court and Republican control over both houses of Congress. However, the Trump administration has struggled to push through federal policy shifts in many areas, whether sought by political allies as they see a closing window for decisive change, expected by investors as US equity markets reach record highs or feared by the White House’s Democratic opponents.

Canada’s Trudeau will welcome Biden’s US win

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Power ◽  
The World ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance Canada-US ties have seen some friction under President Donald Trump; Biden’s administration is an opportunity for calmer ties. The change of president in the United States will have implications for Canada’s economy, trade, environmental policy and national security, and could help bolster Canada as a global middle power. Impacts Bay Street (Canada’s Wall Street) will monitor Biden’s economic policy appointees closely. Trudeau’s government will lobby Biden to support the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada will support Washington on the world stage, including as Biden returns Washington to international bodies. Trudeau could call an early election in 2021, though cancellation of Keystone XL would limit his support in Alberta.

The integration of mortgage and capital markets: a tale of two administrations

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-431
Author(s):  
Dror Parnes ◽  
Srinivas Nippani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Obama Administration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Capital ◽  
Mortgage Rates ◽  
Trump Administration

Purpose This study aims to extend the literature by exploring the degrees of integration of both fixed and adjustable mortgage rates and diverse riskless (Treasury) and risky (corporate) interest rates in the capital markets from January 1, 2010, until November 7, 2018. This period is uniquely characterized by a sharp conversion on January 20, 2017, from enhanced financial regulation during the Obama administration to major deregulatory ambitions during the first 22 months of the Trump administration. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the augmented Dickey and Fuller and the Phillips and Perron unit root tests to examine time series stationarity and the Johansen cointegration rank and the Stock-Watson common trends tests to inspect various cointegrations and regressions of time series pairs to explore different effects. The authors deploy these techniques over the entire time frame, as well as for distinct sub-periods of similar length. Findings The authors conclude that a deregulatory setting favors cointegration between mortgage and non-corporate capital markets. However, an enriched regulatory environment supports cointegration between mortgage and corporate capital markets. In addition, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer protection Act from July 21, 2010, created a unique though short-term effect on the relationships between Treasury and corporate bonds and fixed-rate mortgages. Practical implications The journey contributes to the overall understanding of the interactions among US financial markets. They are considered efficient, competitive and fully developed if their prices quickly adjust to economic changes and regulatory transformations. Originality/value The authors study the degrees of integration of various conventional and adjustable mortgage rates and different fixed and floating interest rates in the US capital markets from January 1, 2010, until November 7, 2018. This recent time frame has yet to be examined in the economic literature. This period is also characterized by a sharp transformation on January 20, 2017, from enhanced financial regulation during the Obama administration to major deregulatory drives during the first 22 months of the Trump administration.

Small regulators will be a locus of US finance fights

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Regulatory Bodies

Significance The settlement indicates the ability of regulatory bodies to establish themselves by aggressive actions, and the risks for businesses that do not assess their strength accurately. Impacts Populist regulatory themes are resonating at the electoral level, most forcefully driven by Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. A more lenient stance toward financial regulation may not be possible for the Republican presidential nominee. The recent departure of the DFS's first superintendent, Benjamin Lawsky, will not weaken the agency's aggressive actions.

Rising political risks fuel financial market anxieties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The World ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Subject Global reflation trade falters as markets question Trump Significance US President Donald Trump warned in a newspaper interview on April 12 that the dollar was getting too strong and said that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. His remarks were the latest challenge to the speculative bets that have underpinned surging stock markets since last November's US election. Since mid-March, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 40 basis points and the dollar has weakened as confidence in Trump’s pro-business policies wanes and inflationary pressures soften across the world. Impacts Investors face greater near-term volatility in sterling assets as the June 8 UK election adds new uncertainty to the Brexit process. The recent volatility in oil prices will continue due to mounting uncertainty about the impact of production cuts by major producers. Euro-dollar volatility will heighten further if Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon both reach the second round of France's election.

US Fed faces long-term COVID-19 challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Do So

Significance In responding to COVID-19, the Fed, working with the Treasury, is making massive fiscal interventions. Congress has also appropriated 3 trillion dollars in aid so far. Impacts The HEROES Act will not pass the Senate either in its current form, or before June 2020, given debt concerns. President Donald Trump has suggested the Fed introduce negative interest rates, but it is unlikely to do so. The debt overhang from Fed balance sheet expansion will shape monetary policy for a decade.

US House will press Mueller for more information

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Information ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
To Come

Significance Mueller issued his extensive report in April, a part-redacted version of which was made public. He will testify to a Democratic-led House that believes there is more to come out about the 2016 election and President Donald Trump. They also have political reasons for keeping the pressure on Trump and his administration before the November 2020 elections. Impacts Any new information or insights Mueller adds will be incorporated into House investigations of Trump. Mueller’s testimony could help the search for bipartisan consensus over election security. The testimony is unlikely to lead to a greater risk of Trump or Barr being impeached and removed.

US financial reform efforts will wane under Trump

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Free Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Reform ◽  
Regulatory Agencies ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Financial Regulatory

Subject US financial regulation outlook. Significance President-elect Donald Trump can make a decisive imprint on the financial regulatory institutions and practices of the United States. By selecting individuals who share the free-market principles he seeks to promote, he can reshape the personnel at key agencies. In tandem, he can work with the Republican-controlled Congress to enact new legislation delimiting regulatory agencies’ brief, authority and resources. Impacts Presidential appointees to head agencies will determine what issues are prioritised and how interventionist policy will be. A Trump SEC chair appointee is likely to encourage a return to industry self-policing over federal scrutiny and enforcement. Backsliding by US regulators could have a negative knock-on effect for international Basel IV negotiations.

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