Rising political risks fuel financial market anxieties

Subject Global reflation trade falters as markets question Trump Significance US President Donald Trump warned in a newspaper interview on April 12 that the dollar was getting too strong and said that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. His remarks were the latest challenge to the speculative bets that have underpinned surging stock markets since last November's US election. Since mid-March, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 40 basis points and the dollar has weakened as confidence in Trump’s pro-business policies wanes and inflationary pressures soften across the world. Impacts Investors face greater near-term volatility in sterling assets as the June 8 UK election adds new uncertainty to the Brexit process. The recent volatility in oil prices will continue due to mounting uncertainty about the impact of production cuts by major producers. Euro-dollar volatility will heighten further if Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon both reach the second round of France's election.

Author(s):  
Jose J Haspa DeLarosiere ◽  
Soren Nielsen

Rising oil prices, steel prices - as well as the stronger dollar certainly impacted the financial markets during the latter part of May 2016. So also, the expected announcement of higher interest rates in June 2016 by the Federal Reserve. As well as illustrating the impact of financial shocks for emerging economies, this chapter also illustrates the impact of financial shocks for smaller – as well as more advanced economies. Having highlighted through the entire volume, the macroeconomic consequences of the changes and fluctuations of commodity prices – as reflected through the recent global financial market volatilities. This chapter will also focus on the main channels through which commodities price fluctuations affect business cycles in EMEs.


2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonios Rovolis ◽  
Andreas Feidakis

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the determinants of the capital structure of real estate investment trusts (REITs) across the world and explore whether this structure is characterized by any common factors. Design/methodology/approach – Endogenous and exogenous factors that affect the financial management of real estate firms are identified in the analysis. “Regular” (static) panel data regression analysis, as well as dynamic panel data techniques, is applied to a panel of listed real estate firms from 2005 to 2010. Findings – Empirical results showed that factors such as tangibility, size of the company, growth opportunities, assets turnover affect positively the financial leverage of REITs; conversely, other determinants, being debit's cost, GDP, and long-term interest rates, are negatively correlated with the financial gearing of the REITs. Practical implications – This paper identifies factors that determine the capital structure of REITs around the world. Firm executives and policy makers in different countries may wish to adjust their policies (regarding capital structure) according to the empirical findings. Originality/value – This study, using a comprehensive dataset from all over the world, investigates whether there are solid and mutual factors that can characterize the capital structure of REITs.


2018 ◽  
Vol 119 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 87-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Creaser

Purpose Library impact and how to evaluate it has been debated for a number of years. While the activity – the busy-ness – of the library is now routinely measured and described, the difference the library makes is less tangible and harder to measure. Libraries in all sectors and worldwide are grappling with this issue, and the purpose of this paper is to summarise international standards available to support them. Design/methodology/approach The first international standard concerning library impact, ISO 16439 Information and documentation – methods and procedures for assessing the impact of libraries, was published in 2014 after several years in development. Findings The standard describes a range of methods for assessing library impact which have been used across the world in a variety of libraries in all sectors. Originality/value This paper summarises the key methods described in the standard, and gives references for further reading.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeem Abas ◽  
Esmat Kalair ◽  
Saad Dilshad ◽  
Nasrullah Khan

PurposeThe authors present the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on community lifelines. The state machinery has several departments to secure essential lifelines during disasters and epidemics. Many countries have formed national disaster management authorities to deal with manmade and natural disasters. Typical lifelines include food, water, safety and security, continuity of services, medicines and healthcare equipment, gas, oil and electricity supplies, telecommunication services, transportation means and education system. Supply chain systems are often affected by disasters, which should have alternative sources and routes. Doctors, nurses and medics are front-line soldiers against diseases during pandemics.Design/methodology/approachThe COVID-19 pandemic has revealed how much we all are connected yet unprepared for natural disasters. Political leaders prioritize infrastructures, education but overlook the health sector. During the recent pandemic, developed countries faced more mortalities, fatalities and casualties than developing countries. This work surveys the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health, energy, environment, industry, education and food supply lines.FindingsThe COVID-19 pandemic caused 7% reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during global lockdowns. In addition, COVID-19 has affected social fabric, behaviors, cultures and official routines. Around 2.84 bn doses have been administrated, with approximately 806 m people (10.3% of the world population) are fully vaccinated around the world to date. Most developed vaccines are being evaluated for new variants like alpha, beta, gamma, epsilons and delta first detected in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, USA and India. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all sectors in society, yet this paper critically reviews the impact of COVID-19 on health and energy lifelines.Practical implicationsThis paper critically reviews the health and energy lifelines during pandemic COVID-19 and explains how these essential services were interrupted.Originality/valueThis paper critically reviews the health and energy lifelines during pandemic COVID-19 and explains how these essential services were interrupted.


2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 765-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sena Kimm Gnangnon

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the empirical literature of the macroeconomic effect of trade facilitation reforms by examining the impact of the latter on tax revenue in both developed and developing countries. The relevance of the topic lies on the fact that at the Bali Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2013, Trade Ministers agreed for the first time since the creation of the WTO (in 1995) on an Agreement to facilitate trade around the world, dubbed Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). The study considers both at-the-border and behind-the border measures of Trade Facilitation. Design/methodology/approach To conduct this study, the authors rely on the literature related to the structural factors that explain tax revenue mobilization. The authors mainly use within fixed effects estimator. The analysis relies on 102 countries (of which 23 industrial countries) over the period 2004-2007 (based on data availability). A focus has also been made on African countries, within the sample of developing countries. Findings The empirical analysis suggests evidence of a positive and significant effect of trade facilitation reforms on non-resources tax revenue, irrespective of the sample of countries considered in the analysis. Research limitations/implications This finding should contribute to dampening the fear of policymakers in developing countries, including Africa that the implementation of the TFA would entail higher costs, without necessarily being associated with higher benefits. An avenue for future research would be to extend the period of the study when data would be available. Originality/value To the best of the authors knowledge, this study had not been performed in the literature of the determinants of tax revenue mobilization, although fact-based analysis was performed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd Yusof ◽  
Farrell Hazsan Usman ◽  
Akhmad Affandi Mahfudz ◽  
Ahmad Suki Arif

Purpose This study aims to investigate the interactions among macroeconomic variable shocks, banking fragility and home financing provided by conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. Identifying the causes of financial instability and the effects of macroeconomic shocks can help to foil the onset of future financial turbulence. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bound-testing cointegration approach, impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition are used in this study to unravel the long-run and short-run dynamics among the selected macroeconomic variables and amount of home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, the study uses Granger causality tests to investigate the short-run causalities among the selected variables to further understand the impact of one macroeconomic shock to Islamic and conventional home financing. Findings This study provides evidence that macroeconomic shocks have different long-run and short-run effects on amount of home financing offered by conventional and Islamic banks. Both in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks is more linked to real sector economy and thus is more stable as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. The Granger causality test reveals that only gross domestic product (GDP), Kuala Lumpur Syariah Index (KLSI)/Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and house price index (HPI) are found to have a statistically significant causal relationship with home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. Unlike the case of Islamic banks, conventional home financing is found to have a unidirectional causality with interest rates. Research limitations/implications This study has focused on analyzing the macroeconomic shocks on home financing. However, this study does not assess the impact of financial deregulation and enhanced information technology on amount of financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, it is not within the ambit of this present study to examine the effects of agency costs and information asymmetry. Practical implications The analysis of cointegration and IRFs exhibits that in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks are more linked to real sector economy like GDP and House Prices (HPI) and therefore more resilient to economic vulnerabilities as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. However, in the long run, both conventional and Islamic banks are more susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. The results of the study suggest that monetary policy ramifications to improve banking fragility should focus on stabilizing interest rates or finding an alternative that is free from interest. Social implications Because interest plays a significant role in pricing of home loans, the potential of an alternative such as rental rate is therefore timely and worth the effort to investigate further. Therefore, Islamic banks can explore the possibility of pricing home financing based on rental rate as proposed in this study. Originality/value This paper examines the unresolved issues in Islamic home financing where Islamic banks still benchmark their products especially home financing, to interest rates in dual banking system such as in the case of Malaysia. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies conducted in this area are meager and therefore is imperative to be examined.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur F. Turner ◽  
Gareth Edwards ◽  
Catherine Latham ◽  
Harriet Shortt

PurposeThe purpose of this paper, based on reflections from practice, is to shed light on the realities of using walking as a tool for learning and development. This is done through an initial analysis of longitudinal reflective data spanning seven years and connecting these reflections to the concepts: being-in-the-world, belonging and Ba.Design/methodology/approachThis research takes a practice based phenomenological and reflective approach. The value of this approach is to seek a new understanding, through three distinct conceptual frames, of the effective use of walking within management development.FindingsThe findings connect three conceptual approaches of being-in-the-world, belonging and “Ba” to the practicalities of delivery, thus encouraging practitioners and designers to deeply reflect on the role of walking in management development.Research limitations/implicationsA limitation is that this is largely a personal story exploring the impact of an intuitively developed set of interventions. Despite this, the paper represents a unique and deep interpretation of walking as a mechanism for management development.Practical implicationsThe paper concludes with three recommendations to practitioners wanting to use walking in management development programmes. These are: facilitators need to be familiar with their surroundings; they should look for spaces and places where participants can connect and build relationships; and organisers and sponsors need to recognise how walking not only consolidates knowledge but can help create knowledge too.Originality/valueThis is a unique, seven-year longitudinal study that broadens the theoretical focus of walking as a mechanism for management and leadership development that combines the theoretical lenses of being-in-the-world, belonging and “Ba”, the authors believe, for the first time in research on management development.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 546-566
Author(s):  
Raquel Orcos ◽  
Sergio Palomas

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore how national cultures contribute to explain the uneven diffusion of ISO 14001 across countries. The paper focuses on two of the cultural dimensions developed by the global leadership and organizational behavior effectiveness (GLOBE) project, namely, performance orientation and institutional collectivism. Design/methodology/approach A database containing information about the diffusion of ISO 14001 in 52 countries during the period 1999–2016 was built to carry out this research. The countries considered in this study represent about 90 percent of worldwide ISO 14001 certifications. The information was gathered from publicly available data sources: the ISO Survey, published every year by the International Organization for Standardization, the world development indicators of the World Bank, the cultural dimensions of the GLOBE project and the Index of Economic Freedom provided by The Heritage Foundation. Findings This research finds that both performance orientation and institutional collectivism influence the diffusion of ISO 14001. Whereas performance orientation slows down the diffusion of ISO 14001, institutional collectivism speeds it up. Additionally, this research shows that the slowing effect of performance orientation decreases in strength over time, while the accelerating effect of institutional collectivism becomes stronger. Originality/value The study adds to the understanding of the influence of national culture on the diffusion of environmental management standards, with an emphasis on ISO 14001. A key contribution of this research is that it explores how the influence of cultural dimensions change over time as a result of the development and maturation of ISO 14001.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeesh Kumar N.V. ◽  
Arun M. ◽  
Baraneetharan E. ◽  
Stanly Jaya Prakash J. ◽  
Kanchana A. ◽  
...  

Purpose Many investigations are going on in monitoring, contact tracing, predicting and diagnosing the COVID-19 disease and many virologists are urgently seeking to create a vaccine as early as possible. Even though there is no specific treatment for the pandemic disease, the world is now struggling to control the spread by implementing the lockdown worldwide and giving awareness to the people to wear masks and use sanitizers. The new technologies, including the Internet of things (IoT), are gaining global attention towards the increasing technical support in health-care systems, particularly in predicting, detecting, preventing and monitoring of most of the infectious diseases. Similarly, it also helps in fighting against COVID-19 by monitoring, contract tracing and detecting the COVID-19 pandemic by connection with the IoT-based smart solutions. IoT is the interconnected Web of smart devices, sensors, actuators and data, which are collected in the raw form and transmitted through the internet. The purpose of this paper is to propose the concept to detect and monitor the asymptotic patients using IoT-based sensors. Design/methodology/approach In recent days, the surge of the COVID-19 contagion has infected all over the world and it has ruined our day-to-day life. The extraordinary eruption of this pandemic virus placed the World Health Organization (WHO) in a hazardous position. The impact of this contagious virus and scarcity among the people has forced the world to get into complete lockdown, as the number of laboratory-confirmed cases is increasing in millions all over the world as per the records of the government. Findings COVID-19 patients are either symptomatic or asymptotic. Symptomatic patients have symptoms such as fever, cough and difficulty in breathing. But patients are also asymptotic, which is very difficult to detect and monitor by isolating them. Originality/value Asymptotic patients are very hazardous because without knowing that they are infected, they might spread the infection to others, also asymptotic patients might be having very serious lung damage. So, earlier prediction and monitoring of asymptotic patients are mandatory to save their life and prevent them from spreading.


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