Macedonian premier may not control fractious coalition

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Defeat ◽  
Previous Election

Subject The former ruling party’s defeat in local elections. Significance Macedonia’s ruling Social Democrats (SDSM) inflicted a crushing defeat on their erstwhile rival, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), in last month’s local elections. Both parties in effect exchanged positions, the SDSM winning 57 municipalities and VMRO five, compared with four and 56 respectively in the previous election in 2013. VMRO suffered its greatest electoral defeat since its creation in 1990. Impacts Gruevski’s conclusive demise makes Macedonia unambiguously pro-Western and changes the geopolitics of the region. Zaev’s rows with Serbia, which briefly closed its embassy in Skopje in August 2017, probably will not have long-term significance. With the end of two years of political instability, Macedonia would become more attractive to foreign investment, especially Chinese.

Kyrgyz referendum may be Pyrrhic victory

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Pyrrhic Victory ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Kyrgyzstan's constitutional referendum. Significance Now that President Almazbek Atambayev has secured the constitutional changes he wanted, it is unclear how he benefits. The December 11 referendum was a success in its own terms despite the dearth of public understanding of the issues, but was accompanied by an acrimonious divorce between the ruling Social Democratic Party and its long-term coalition partner, Ata-Meken. Impacts A weaker government and divided parliament will struggle to focus on chronic and serious economic problems. The Social Democrats are in a stronger position nationwide thanks to their strong showing in simultaneous local elections. Kyrgyz nationalist and conservative groups will feel emboldened as some of the amendments are seen as concessions to them.

US election raises doubts over Japan-US alliance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Campaign Rhetoric ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
East Asia Region ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

Subject The implications for Japan of the US presidential election. Significance US presidential election campaign rhetoric has sparked serious concerns in Japan about Washington's commitment to the East Asia region in the context of a long-term rise in geopolitical tensions. Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly questioned the value of the US-Japan alliance, while Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has muted her previous support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, seen as the economic component of the US 'rebalance' to Asia under President Barack Obama's administration. Impacts Doubts about the US commitment to the region work to Beijing's advantage. The US government's likely failure to ratify the TPP will damage perceptions of Washington's commitment to the region. Though occasionally mooted, the idea of developing nuclear weapons is a non-starter in Japan.

Iran gas can diversify European supplies in long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 negotiating group (UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany) on July 14 promises to end most sanctions on the country, in return for suspension and monitoring of its nuclear programme. If ratified by all parties, it will create opportunities for an expansion of Iran's gas production and exports. Iran is the holder of the world's largest gas reserves, according to BP estimates. It is also the third-largest producer (after the United States and Russia, and probably having overtaken Qatar during 2015), and the fourth-largest consumer. Impacts Iran could increase gas exports by advancing projects stalled by sanctions, although most of these will take some years to come to fruition. Iran would seek to attract foreign investment into its gas industry to increase production and exports in the longer term. If this occurs, Iran will compete with other gas exporters, particularly Russia, into the 2020s.

Oreskovic government in Croatia may prove short-lived

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Conservatism

Significance After protracted negotiations, Croatia, at last, has a government, comprising the conservative Patriotic Coalition -- the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), plus a few small parties -- and the centre-right Bridge ('Most') of Independent Lists. The government is unusual because it is led by a non-partisan figure, Tihomir Oreskovic, a businessman who grew up in Canada and has only a shaky grasp of the Croatian language. In a best-case scenario, the government could deliver important and necessary reforms. Impacts Efforts to cut public spending will reduce the risk of a damaging financing crisis. A programme of economic restructuring will boost Croatia's long-term growth prospects. The election of two right-wing parties will consolidate the drift towards social conservatism. Tensions in the coalition will perpetuate political instability and could precipitate new elections.

Australian push on India ties likely, but with hurdles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Australian Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Diplomatic Relationship ◽  
Business Structure

Subject Australian policy thinking on India. Significance A blueprint submitted to the Australian government in April, titled 'An India Economic Strategy to 2035', calls for increased export shipments and investment in India through to 2035 and a closer strategic and diplomatic relationship. Impacts Economic relations will evolve slowly, as India is still developing a business structure attractive to foreign investment. Talks on a free trade agreement are unlikely to progress until India agrees to lower market barriers, especially high tariffs. India’s 700,000-strong diaspora in Australia will play a long-term role in connecting markets in the two countries.

Liberia's next president faces mounting expectations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Election Violence ◽  
Poor Infrastructure

Significance Whoever succeeds outgoing President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will have to tackle widespread state corruption, cut recurrent government expenditure and boost infrastructure spending to spur economic growth. Impacts Post-election violence could spike if the opposition loses and accuses a partial electoral commission of manipulation. Low capital spending and poor infrastructure will remain a persistent deterrence to long-term private and foreign investment. International financial institutions will pressure the new government to cut public spending. Further delays to a proposed constitutional referendum are likely.

US move to topple Kosovo government may backfire

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Poor Health ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject US role in fall of Kurti government. Significance The White House’s push for a quick resolution of the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, part of the Trump pre-election campaign, has toppled the Kosovo government as it was struggling to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. For the time being, Albin Kurti heads a caretaker government that may be undermined by continued political infighting or further US involvement. Impacts Political instability will combine with a poor health system to hamper efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. US involvement threatens Kosovo’s fragile democracy by backing old and corrupt forces against the new, from which much was expected. The US-EU rift regarding the region’s long-term perspective will widen.

Italy's Renzi set to continue political reform drive

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Turbulence ◽  
Italian Politics ◽  
The Right ◽  
Political Scene

Subject The Italian political scene ahead of the May 31 regional and local elections. Significance Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) has consolidated his political authority in his party and parliament. The balance of political power has shifted in favour of the left. Renzi has made progress on institutional reforms, most notably of the electoral system, that promise to enhance Italy's longer-term governability. Renzi's strengthened political position, the current relative stability of Italian politics and the prospect of more authoritative Italian governments in future would all provide Italy some insulation in the event of renewed financial market turbulence prompted by a Greek default. Impacts Renzi currently stands out as the left's most successful leader of a major EU state. Italian reformers seeking to consolidate party leadership authority and simplify decision-making have generally come from the right. Renzi has made more progress in these areas than former centre-right Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi achieved. If Renzi secures his planned reform of the Senate, as seems likely, it would further boost both Renzi and Italy's governability.

Mozambican truce unlikely to prompt long-term solution

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Party Congress

Significance The news followed days after the leader of the opposition Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), Afonso Dhlakama, told AFP that the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) government had broken the terms of an informal truce agreed in December. The temporary cessation halted a civil conflict that had intensified throughout 2016. Meanwhile, the government is embroiled in an ongoing debt scandal and defaulted on a coupon payment of 60 million dollars in January. Impacts Nyusi’s position within FRELIMO may become less secure ahead of a party congress scheduled for later this year. A government reshuffle could be forthcoming, as more damaging debt revelations emerge. RENAMO may threaten to boycott local elections in 2018.

Sinhalese-Muslim tensions will rise in Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections

Significance President Maithripala Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP), which form the National Unity Government (NUG), performed poorly in last month’s local elections, in which former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) -- popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists -- swept to victory. Sri Lanka’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2020. Impacts Tourism and foreign direct investment are likely to be adversely impacted by frequent communal clashes. Amid concern over social media’s use to orchestrate violence, Sri Lanka could introduce legislation that curbs free speech. Further violence would increase friction between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, threatening the NUG’s stability.

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