Nigerian ruling party will feel strain from Buhari bid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Leader ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Senatorial Elections

Subject Buhari re-election bid Significance Ending several months of speculation, President Muhammadu Buhari announced last week that he intends to contest for a second term in the presidential elections scheduled for early 2019. The 75-year-old leader’s announcement came amid growing internal divisions within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party, between those in support of the party chairperson, John Odigie Oyegun, and those backing the APC’s ‘National Leader’, Bola Tinubu. Separately, the government and the Senate (upper house) are in dispute over a proposed change to the electoral timetable that would see the presidential contest take place last, potentially undermining Buhari's ability to influence gubernatorial and senatorial elections. Impacts The electoral timetable dispute is likely to lead to subsequent legal challenges. The main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will try to expose APC divides and negotiate with component parts of its coalition. Public concern will grow over the independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ahead of next year's polls.

Ruling party will look inwards ahead of Burundi polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political dynamics ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The government has launched talks with CNARED, a forum of opposition parties, to negotiate the return of its exiled leaders ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. President Pierre Nkurunziza, who has said he will not run for a fourth term, appears to be cautiously reaching out to the opposition in an effort to ease his regime’s diplomatic isolation and deepening economic crisis. Impacts The 2020 elections will likely see continued heavy human rights violations and restrictions on the political space. CNARED’s mooted return might increase tensions, rights violations and repression, especially once they try to campaign outside Bujumbura. Burundi’s crisis weighs heavily on regional security, especially in Congo’s South Kivu Province; the elections might exacerbate this.

Race to succeed Correa gets underway in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Possible successors to President Rafael Correa. Significance The surprising news that President Rafael Correa will not stand in the 2017 presidential elections has triggered a debate over who the ruling party, Alianza Pais, will select as its candidate. The task confronting the party is to choose a candidate who has the potential to secure low and middle-income votes on the one hand and appeal to national and international investors on the other. Striking this balance will be particularly important as the collapse of world oil prices and slowdown of economic growth has damaged the government and fuelled social and political tensions. Impacts Whoever Alianza Pais selects is likely to be the strong favourite, despite the government's difficulties in recent months. The key election battle is likely to be over control of the legislature rather than the presidency. The primary challenge for the opposition to the right will be to find a candidate capable of uniting various leaders and factions.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Correa may yet win fourth term in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Wealth Redistribution ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Successive Term ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.

Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

Nigeria's opposition could pose renewed challenge

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South West ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Food Inflation

Subject Nigerian opposition prospects. Significance Former President Olusegun Obasanjo on January 23 issued a scathing rebuke of President Muhammadu Buhari's performance and implored him not to run for re-election in 2019. Although yet to confirm his intentions, Buhari is expected to be the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) standard-bearer once more. Meanwhile, after four years of national opposition, the former ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP, in office 1999-2015) has overcome debilitating internal divisions and could become a serious electoral prospect once more. While this may lead to a competitive election, it could also potentially exacerbate the country’s manifold security challenges. Impacts The PDP could benefit from a proposed alteration to the electoral timetable to hold gubernatorial ahead of presidential elections. Fuel shortages and food inflation, combined with persistent underemployment and unemployment, will undermine Buhari's economic credentials. Violent election flashpoints are likely to include the central states, parts of the south-west (including Lagos) and the Niger Delta.

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