South African mining sector turmoil could worsen

Significance Lonmin has spent 1.6 billion dollars in cash since 2008 and lost 98% of its value since 2012. The takeover will reportedly see 12,600 of Lonmin’s 35,000 jobs cut over three years. Job losses in the mining sector in the third quarter alone were recorded at 9,000, despite a recent recovery in mining production. Impacts Reduced investment into the mining sector in the short term is likely as labour relations become even more volatile. Mining industry contraction will stifle dependent upstream and downstream sectors. The recently gazetted Mining Charter is likely to be ruled unconstitutional early next year.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Ackers ◽  
Susanna Elizabeth Grobbelaar

Purpose Despite initially being lauded as a revolutionary approach for companies to account to all stakeholders, the shareholder orientation of the international integrated reporting (<IR>) framework gave rise to questions about whether integrated reports would still sufficiently disclose pertinent corporate social responsibility (CSR) information. This paper aims to investigate the extent to which the <IR> framework has impacted the CSR disclosures contained in integrated reports of South African mining companies. Design/methodology/approach The study deployed a mixed methods research approach, involving thematic content analysis of the CSR disclosures contained in the integrated reports of mining companies with primary listings on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The resultant qualitative data were subsequently analysed using a T-test of difference. Findings The study observes that the release of the <IR> framework appears to have had a limited impact on the CSR disclosures in the integrated reports of most companies included in the study. However, where significant differences were identified, the CSR disclosures of some companies were positively impacted after the release of the <IR> framework, whilst others were negatively impacted. Research limitations/implications As South Africa is acknowledged as a leader in the global <IR> movement, the paper’s observations have global relevance and suggest that the fundamental principles of <IR> should be reconsidered to improve the alignment with stakeholders’ information needs, as originally conceived. Originality/value Despite the shareholder orientation of the <IR> framework, the global mining industry is acknowledged as being at the forefront of implementing CSR interventions to mitigate the adverse impacts of their operations on stakeholders, supporting a stakeholder orientation. As the adoption of <IR> continues to gain traction around the world, this paper’s contribution is that it represents one of the few papers to use the global reporting initiative G4 indicators to specifically examine the impact of <IR> framework on the CSR disclosures on the South African mining industry, where both <IR> and CSR reporting are quasi-mandatory disclosure requirements.


Significance Inflation seems to have returned to the economy following three years of near-continual deflation. After years in the doldrums, the Croatian economy is finally experiencing respectable growth and various indicators are now pointing in the right direction. However, the recovery is based on short-term factors that cannot easily be sustained, and the foundations of the economy remain weak. Impacts The current spate of growth is helping to prop up a weak government and a socio-economic model to which many Croats are averse. Respectable growth has lifted business confidence in the third quarter to its highest level since 2009. Apparent economic convergence with the rest of the EU is reviving the question whether and when Croatia should adopt the euro.


Subject Zimbabwe mining prospects. Significance President Emmerson Mnangagwa has repeatedly said Zimbabwe is open for business, but this has yet to be backed up by substantive legislative reform or efforts at tackling entrenched corruption. Without fundamental changes, Zimbabwe’s mining sector will continue to deter legitimate investors and remain dominated by military and political elites. Impacts Rejoining the Commonwealth could help improve the overall investment climate, but only if substantive democratic reforms are pursued. Minerals will be the key economic prospect that Mnangagwa can use to entice foreign investors in the short term. Should ZANU-PF triumph in the polls, ruling party infighting could intensify over Mnangagwa’s future successor.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance Encouraged by this year’s price increases for most of Peru’s mineral exports, the government is seeking to push ahead with plans to attract much-needed foreign investment into the mining industry. This will involve politically contentious moves to deregulate some of the cumbersome procedures that affect investors. Impacts Next year’s growth target of 4% is probably over-optimistic. Social and environmental protests will add to the costs of mining investment in Peru. Once opposition has emerged to projects, it will prove difficult to reverse. Climate change will accentuate problems of water shortage for mining operations.


Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa, who had been under escalating pressure from business and organised labour to reopen the economy fully, justified the relaxation by citing reductions in new case figures. There are indications that all provinces may have reached their peak of infections by end-July. Impacts Despite the scale of the crisis, the government appears still to lack urgency in formulating a substantive economic response. Government's withdrawal of an appeal to a 2018 declaratory order will raise hopes for greater flexibility with miners in the short term. Lockdown-related drops in reported crimes will likely prove short-lived, given renewed alcohol sales, growing joblessness and hardship.


Significance While the measures have been welcomed by investors, they depend on Pretoria reaching a deal with civil servants, whose unions have denounced the government’s plans. Impacts Despite commitments to a series of growth-boosting structural reforms outlined last year, progress will likely remain halting. Renewed funding for embattled South African Airways (SAA) will be a recurring source of public and political contention over the short term. Debt costs could rise further if a ratings downgrade sees investors demand even higher yields on South African debt.


Subject South African post-lockdown mining. Significance Three weeks into its COVID-19-related lockdown, the government allowed certain mines to ramp up to 100% capacity (coal and opencast operations) and others to 50% (underground operations), making it the first non-essential industry allowed to resume full or partial operations. This particularly benefits smaller, more marginal mines, as larger ones were already in a relatively resilient financial position. However, more fundamental issues continue to weigh on the industry, such as costly and erratic power supply and ongoing policy uncertainty. Impacts An extended lockdown and the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis could see a rise in community-based protests interrupting operations. A surge in COVID-19 infections at mines and subsequent closures will cast doubt over the feasibility of the industry's short-term strategy. The growing financial stress on workers may prompt more militant demands during scheduled coal wage negotiations later this year.


Significance President Jacob Zuma cancelled a state visit to Indonesia to lead government efforts against the violence. However, popular perceptions of uncontrollable inflows linked state incapacity, a porous asylum system and continued weak economic growth mean that anti-immigrant sentiment will persist. Impacts In the short term, South Africa is likely to refrain from reforming the regional customs union out of fear of antagonising its neighbours. Reputational damage from the attacks is likely to undermine Zuma's efforts to create a 'rapid response' regional peace-keeping force. This reputational damage may encourage international firms to base their SSA headquarters in non-South African 'gateway' cities.


Significance A former South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor and minister of labour, Mboweni faces a crucial first few weeks in his new post as the government attempts to placate rating agencies and engineer an economic turnaround. Mboweni’s initial moves may be determined by Moody’s credit rating review expected today. Impacts In the short term, Mboweni’s appointment will be a boost for Ramaphosa’s bid for fiscal consolidation and growth. In the medium-to-long term, Mboweni will likely prove a more polarising figure inside the ANC than Nene. Allegations linking the Economic Freedom Fighters with a major banking scandal could give Mboweni and the ANC an early political 'win'. Mboweni's previous social media utterances could be further exploited by opponents, both left and right, in the months ahead.


Subject Zambian mining instability. Significance Copper miner First Quantum Minerals says it has not discovered material errors in its customs payments after bringing in external auditors to scrutinise transactions between 2013 and 2017. This follows claims by the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) that Quantum underpaid the authorities by 76.50 billion kwacha (8.15 billion dollars). The Zambian government appears to be attempting to squeeze First Quantum and other mining companies -- whose transactions it also intends to audit -- to raise much-needed revenue amid ballooning government debt. Impacts The government’s pattern of implementing policy changes without meaningful consultation is likely to persist. Policy uncertainty and government efforts to squeeze more revenue from miners may deter large new mining investments in the short term. Much-needed spending on infrastructure and logistics will remain small, scattered and dependent on countries such as China and India.


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