UK Brexit is likely to worsen inequality

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Close Association ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance The consensus among most economists is that whatever the eventual deal, the United Kingdom will be worse off in the long run as a result of leaving the EU. However, the economic impacts will be far from uniform across the country. Impacts The Labour Party is in a better position than the Conservatives to benefit from the increased salience of distributional issues. The automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors and the local economies they support are disproportionately exposed. Opposition to trade deals could rise as workers may fear that a flood of cheap imports could threaten their jobs. There is a close association between health and wealth, so poorer areas falling further behind could mean worse health outcomes.

Brexit will be damaging for UK-EU services trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance Even if it succeeds, this will have a greater disruptive impact on the trade in services than goods, because the EU’s single market enables greater cross-border services trade than is typical of other free trade agreements (FTAs). This is likely to cut the volume of EU-UK services trade, in which the United Kingdom currently enjoys a substantial surplus. Impacts The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will diminish its appeal for multinationals over the next few years, at least. The new UK immigration system could result in staff shortages in low-skilled services sectors. The imperative of tackling COVID-19 will likely delay the conclusion of new trade deals with non-EU countries.

Brexit will challenge UK civil service

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the civil service. Significance With the formal second reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill in parliament today, UK MPs will start to debate the legislation rescinding the United Kingdom's membership of the EU. London's reluctance to clarify its negotiating position during the Brexit talks with Brussels has led to accusations that the United Kingdom is unprepared for such a complex process, not only politically but administratively, too. Impacts A lack of experienced trade negotiators will hamper the United Kingdom’s ability to conclude trade deals after it has left the EU. Stricter immigration rules for EU nationals would increase the workload of the civil service further. The United Kingdom’s perceived unpreparedness could lower EU trust and confidence.

Prospects for Western EU in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Social ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
The Eu

Significance In addition to addressing the social and economic impacts of COVID-19, Angela Merkel, who has provided stable leadership in Germany and the EU over the past 15 years, will depart the scene. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom will no longer abide by EU rules and regulations from January 1.

EU wants a post-Brexit level playing field

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Level Playing Field ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Food Standards ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Subject Level playing field after Brexit. Significance Unless the United Kingdom remains a member of the single market, it will no longer automatically be subject to EU rules after Brexit. This has raised concerns in the EU that the United Kingdom could gain a competitive advantage by moving towards a ‘low tax, low regulation’ economic model, which could undermine the competitiveness of the EU and trigger a regulatory race to the bottom. Impacts Lower UK environmental standards could impose direct costs on EU consumers, for example through cross-border air pollution. London may be tempted to accept lower food standards in securing more favourable trade deals with non-EU countries. A no-deal Brexit would put the UK government under greater pressure to adopt a tougher stand vis-a-vis the EU and deregulate.

UK-EU trade negotiations to be contentious

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for UK-EU trade deals. Significance Following the 'Brexit' referendum, a statement from EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom that the United Kingdom must negotiate its EU exit before concluding a trade deal alters assessments of future trading conditions across the English Channel. Even if the United Kingdom were to retain access to the single market or negotiate a free trade area with the EU, UK-EU trade is likely to be governed solely by WTO rules for many years. Impacts Given the UK government's lack of trade negotiators, the private sector could shape the country's negotiating positions. For UK exporters with domestic suppliers, the impact of tariffs on EU shipments will be mitigated by the pound's depreciation. However, the beneficial impact of the latter is reduced for UK exporters that source from abroad.

May will have to negotiate Brexit in EU and at home

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The next challenge for UK Prime Minister Theresa May is to reconcile the requirements laid down by the EU and domestic political pressures in progressing the Brexit talks still further. Impacts The EU’s proposals would not allow the United Kingdom to sign trade deals before the end of transition. A Canada-style trade agreement would damage the United Kingdom’s services sector. Failure to negotiate a transition period within the next few months could lead to some companies beginning to relocate.

Prospects for Europe in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Way

Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Complicated UK-WTO negotiations may hit growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.

May will pursue ‘hard’ Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Freedom Of Action ◽  
The Eu

Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.

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